# In the Face of the Blue Wall, The 2016 Presidential Election IS the Democratic Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 29, 2014, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446 "2014-12-29T15:50:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2014, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/81 "2014-12-31T12:32:44Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > Sure, I’d be happy to name a large number. > [@](#): > > [FDA regulations](http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2013/11/21/246386290/organic-farmers-bash-fda-restrictions-on-manure-use) on organic farms. Looks like there is legitimate scientific debate here about how long the pathogens in manure can thrive in the soil and pose a threat to produce that is eaten raw. I don’t think it’s that big a shitstorm. > [@](#): > > The Obama Administration’s[lawsuit](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323407104579037020495325310) aiming to deny poor children in Louisiana a decent education I don’t think any conservative gives two shits about the education of poor children anywhere. They want vouchers because they’re a means to funnel public money into private schools. > [@](#): > > The Administration’s [meddling in how colleges and universities handle sexual assault allegations.](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887323407104579037020495325310) Looks like you posted the same link twice, can’t comment without a fresh link. > [@](#): > > [Intrusive regulations for truck drivers](http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nationalreview.com%2Farticle%2F370895%2Fpilot-shortage-made-congress-jillian-kay-melchior&ei=IHCjVNbfMIqbyQSx54GgAw&usg=AFQjCNHXCCkfewwjimStfMYZg9pZkpVdLQ&sig2=iiz-OIhm11MyVul-IZDrsQ&bvm=bv.82001339,d.aWw). Looks like the link for your next objection, no comment without knowing what you refer to. > [@](#): > > Increasing mandated training hours for airline pilots by 500%. Of course the National Review is a poisoned well. I happen to prefer that pilots have more training rather than less. It will take some time for the industry to train enough pilots to meet demand. Them’s the breaks. > [@](#): > > Those are not the only regulations that I object to. There’s so many that no one human being could keep track of all the ways that liberal Democrats are attacking our freedoms. > [@](#): > > Just a few days ago, Obama[released](http://dailycaller.com/2014/11/24/white-house-quietly-releases-plans-for-3415-regulations-ahead-of-thanksgiving-holiday/) 3,415 new regulations. He didn’t release new regulations, merely planned regulations that will go through the normal processes. Looks like new carbon regulations are in the works, that’s a good thing. > [@](#): > > All told, regulations [cost](http://reason.com/blog/2014/04/30/the-united-states-of-regulation-complian) Americans 1.8 trillion dollars each year. That’s almost $6,000 for every man, woman, and child in the country. That’s a rather poisoned well you’re drinking from. So someone made some numbers up. I say the regulations save 10 trillion dollars per year. My number is as good as those. > [@](#): > > Okay, so you didn’t think that I’d be able to name any regulations that I opposed. I easily named five. Looks like you were wrong. Utterly, totally, completely, entirely, and fully wrong. Yes, you did name some and in that point I was wrong. Your objections are not reality-based but whatever floats your boat. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2014, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/82 "2014-12-31T15:23:12Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > It would be especially wrong to put Ohio in the “blue wall.” (I don’t know if anybody actually is, but it would be a bad idea.) Ohio isn’t one of the states in the OP’s link. In fact, part of the “Blue Wall” theory is that Democrats have enough states locked up that they could lose the swing states like Ohio, Florida and Colorado and still win the election. This assumes that you include Virgina into the “Blue Wall” to make 270 and I’m not sure that’ll hold. Still, just having Virgina and arguably North Carolina acting as swing states these days is reason for Democrats to feel better about presidential elections. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2014, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/83 "2014-12-31T15:26:49Z")
I think Virginia’s blueness is entirely a function of how much money the government is spending. Shrink government and a lot of those highly paid government workers and lobbyists and activists go back home. Or, you could be slick and give DC statehood, on the condition that DC annexes all of the neighborhoods in Maryland and Virginia that are considered the DC metro area. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2014, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/84 "2014-12-31T16:03:36Z")
It’s tough to describe passing a constitutional amendment as “being slick”, and that’s what it would take to make DC a state. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2014, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/85 "2014-12-31T22:44:21Z")
The slick is in giving DC statehood and the GOP an advantage in Virginia by giving DC a few million more blue voters. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/86 "2015-01-01T00:25:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The slick is in giving DC statehood and the GOP an advantage in Virginia by giving DC a few million more blue voters. Not following- are you saying Virginia Democrats would flock to DC if it became a state? Whatever for? ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/87 "2015-01-01T00:39:43Z")
I can understand why Republicans were dreaming of a permanent majority after 2004. If you can win with Bush, you can win with anyone. It’s weird to me that any Dem would be so cocky about the next one. Especially since weird things can happen given the right candidate. Even Indiana voted for Obama in 2008. The last time we swung blue was for LBJ in 1964. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/88 "2015-01-01T02:53:04Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > I can understand why Republicans were dreaming of a permanent majority after 2004. If you can win with Bush, you can win with anyone. It’s weird to me that any Dem would be so cocky about the next one. Especially since weird things can happen given the right candidate. Even Indiana voted for Obama in 2008. The last time we swung blue was for LBJ in 1964. Well there is a difference between simply being “cocky” and being realistic about the most likely outcome of an election and making plans to get your goals advanced as best you can based on that outcome. It’s good to make plans based on a negative outcome too, but you should put your focus on the most likely outcome, which in 2016 is a Democratic victory. Which is not the same thing as a progressive victory, at all. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/89 "2015-01-01T04:10:35Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > This post makes no sense to what I posted. Really, it doesn’t. Maybe your point wasn’t clear. You seemed to be saying that the reason Obama won was only because he was a black candidate who motivated an unusually high number of black people to vote. I was countering this argument by pointing out non-black Democrats who also won. > [@pkbites](#): > > Clinton received less than 50% of the vote in '96. And Dole got less than 41%. If you’re arguing that somehow Clinton didn’t “really” win where does that put Dole? I think you’re illustrating a problem the Republicans have. The Republicans lose elections but always argue that their defeats were some kind of fluke - so that next time they’ll just do the same thing but it will work. This belief in flukes keeps the Republicans from addressing the need to examine their fundamental strategy. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/90 "2015-01-01T04:51:55Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Not following- are you saying Virginia Democrats would flock to DC if it became a state? Whatever for? The idea is that you make DC statehood conditional on the new state annexing all neighborhoods and towns that are part of its metro area. > **[Washington metropolitan area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_metropolitan_area)** > > Washington–Arlington–Alexandria MSA > > The Washington metropolitan area, also referred to as the D.C. area, Greater Washington, the National Capital Region, or locally as the DMV (short for District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia), is the metropolitan area centered around Washington, D.C., the federal capital of the United States. The metropolitan area includes all of Washington, D.C. and parts of Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. It is part of the larger Washington–Baltimore combine... These Virginia counties would be part of the new state: Counties and independent cities (independent cities are listed under their surrounding county or parent county):[8] ``` Arlington County City of Alexandria Clarke County Culpeper County Fairfax County City of Fairfax City of Falls Church Fauquier County Loudoun County Prince William County City of Manassas City of Manassas Park Rappahannock County Spotsylvania County City of Fredericksburg Stafford County Warren County ``` Not only does Virginia become red after this change, but Maryland’s DC metro areas going to the new state possibly turns Maryland purple. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/91 "2015-01-01T04:58:20Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I think you’re illustrating a problem the Republicans have. The Republicans lose elections but always argue that their defeats were some kind of fluke - so that next time they’ll just do the same thing but it will work. This belief in flukes keeps the Republicans from addressing the need to examine their fundamental strategy. And in what respect does this differ from the mainstream Democratic response to 2014’s Republican victory, in which the Republicans won about every contested Senate seat and picked up a lot of seats in the House? The mainstream Democrats say it was because the numbers were against them, that the voters just don’t come out during midterms. They never acknowledge the possibility that it might have been the fact that they did not run as Democrats but as Republican-lites, that made the voters uninterested in the election. It really is difficult to see how the Democrats could have done WORSE by running as Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/92 "2015-01-01T05:13:53Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Yes, you did name some and in that point I was wrong. Your objections are not reality-based but whatever floats your boat. [Here’s the article about truck drivers and new regulations.](http://www.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304672404579182522881942740) Beyond what I’ve posted in this thread, I’m not interested in debating each of these regulations point by point; I said that the Hillary Clinton Administration, if it comes into existence, will bring with it countless new regulations, as would any Democratic Administration. You challenged me to gives examples of new regulations under the Obama Administration, and I did. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/93 "2015-01-01T05:16:26Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > I don’t think I was proven wrong, nor that Chris Ladd was. The numbers are still the same. There were a lot of objections to it, but none that I found particularly convincing. Your mileage clearly varies. Denial springs eternal. I, personally, don’t have a clue which party will win in 2016. I see partisans on each side insisting that victory is surely theirs. Well, one side will be right and one will be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/94 "2015-01-01T05:26:09Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > And in what respect does this differ from the mainstream Democratic response to 2014’s Republican victory, in which the Republicans won about every contested Senate seat and picked up a lot of seats in the House? The mainstream Democrats say it was because the numbers were against them, that the voters just don’t come out during midterms. They never acknowledge the possibility that it might have been the fact that they did not run as Democrats but as Republican-lites, that made the voters uninterested in the election. It really is difficult to see how the Democrats could have done WORSE by running as Democrats. I agree, but running as Democrats has to be something that is done from the start, not a plan you just cobble together around election time. Voters can smell fake a mile away. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/95 "2015-01-01T15:06:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The idea is that you make DC statehood conditional on the new state annexing all neighborhoods and towns that are part of its metro area. > … > > Not only does Virginia become red after this change, but Maryland’s DC metro areas going to the new state possibly turns Maryland purple. I get the drift now. Virginia would never want to part with so much of its population and the money and power that come with it. If you did, you’d create a super red Virginia with much fewer electoral votes and a DC+ with more than 3 guaranteed blue electoral votes. Never gonna happen. ---
**Author:** ![SeldomSeen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ba0ec/32.png) [@SeldomSeen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SeldomSeen)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/96 "2015-01-01T16:40:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > …Shrink government and a lot of those highly paid government workers and lobbyists and activists go back home. In what alternative world are lobbyists and activists paid by “the government”? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/97 "2015-01-01T16:41:21Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I agree, but running as Democrats has to be something that is done from the start, not a plan you just cobble together around election time. Voters can smell fake a mile away. No they can’t. They’re idiots. Almost half of them voted for Bush in 2004 when they KNEW he was an idiot. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/98 "2015-01-01T18:25:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The idea is that you make DC statehood conditional on the new state annexing all neighborhoods and towns that are part of its metro area. > > [Washington metropolitan area - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_metropolitan_area) > > These Virginia counties would be part of the new state: > > Counties and independent cities (independent cities are listed under their surrounding county or parent county):[8] > > ``` > Arlington County > City of Alexandria > Clarke County > Culpeper County > Fairfax County > City of Fairfax > City of Falls Church > Fauquier County > Loudoun County > Prince William County > City of Manassas > City of Manassas Park > Rappahannock County > Spotsylvania County > City of Fredericksburg > Stafford County > Warren County > > ``` > > Not only does Virginia become red after this change, but Maryland’s DC metro areas going to the new state possibly turns Maryland purple. so you want to gerrymander states. Real classy, especially when we ought to try to get rid of gerrymandering because of its anti democratic purposes. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/99 "2015-01-01T18:52:08Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > And in what respect does this differ from the mainstream Democratic response to 2014’s Republican victory, in which the Republicans won about every contested Senate seat and picked up a lot of seats in the House? The mainstream Democrats say it was because the numbers were against them, that the voters just don’t come out during midterms. They never acknowledge the possibility that it might have been the fact that they did not run as Democrats but as Republican-lites, that made the voters uninterested in the election. It really is difficult to see how the Democrats could have done WORSE by running as Democrats. So you’re arguing that voters chose Republicans over Republican-lites because the Republican-lites weren’t liberal enough? Do you see the flaw in that argument? This is like all those Republicans who argued back in 2008 that the reason people voted for Obama over McCain is because McCain wasn’t conservative enough. If you want to win elections look at where people are voting and then go there. That’s how the Democrat/Republican-lite coalition has been winning Presidential elections. ---
**Author:** ![Stringbean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Stringbean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stringbean)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2015, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/100 "2015-01-01T19:13:02Z")
I’ll make a bold prediction: The Republicans will secure at least 47% of the vote. The Democrats will secure at least 47% of the vote. And whoever wins will be the one who adequately courts the remaining 6%. (My point is presidential elections are turned by a scant few swing votes in a scant few swing states. Nobody on this board has a damn clue which side they will go) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446.md?page=6)