# In the Face of the Blue Wall, The 2016 Presidential Election IS the Democratic Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 29, 2014, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446 "2014-12-29T15:50:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/161 "2015-01-05T19:39:21Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I’m lukewarm on her myself, but I’d crawl over hot coals and broken glass in the nude to vote for her over Cruz, Paul, Bush, Rubio, Christie, or whoever. On economic issues, I’m not sure she’s all that different from them, nor are most progressives. But whatever floats your boat! ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/162 "2015-01-05T19:40:41Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What does the GOP have to offer a poor voter? Blood, sweat and tears … pretty much the same packages the DLC types are offering. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/163 "2015-01-05T19:49:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > This just started two months ago? Sorry, I know what you mean, but I’m really skeptical that Democrats in 2016 will be able to focus a winning campaign on scaring twenty seven distinct special interests with twenty seven different messages, which was pretty much the 2014 strategy. It’s especially unlikely to work among Latino voters if Bush is the nominee. While I don’t know if Bush can win given his family baggage, I do know that if he runs Democrats will have to figure out how to win again with no more than 60% of the Latino vote and I don’t know if they can wrap their minds around that anymore. To beat Bush, there’s no way around competing for the white middle class vote, which Democrats seem to have forgotten how to do. I think your way overestimating Jeb’s popularity. I think he’d do slightly better than McCain and Romney among Latinos, but the only way he’d get close to 40% would be if turnout was as low as it is for mid-terms. Further, I see no evidence that Bush will be able to navigate the Republican nomination without pissing off Latinos – that seems to be a requirement, as of late. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/164 "2015-01-05T20:04:10Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > On economic issues, I’m not sure she’s all that different from them, nor are most progressives. But whatever floats your boat! For me, the key is the Supreme Court. Hillary appointees would be much more likely to keep Roe, overturn Heller and Citizens United, keep the ACA, and otherwise hold the line against the right wing than would appointees of Paul, Rubio, or Bush. This for me is enough to vote for a centrist Dem. Sure, I’d love a President Franken. But let’s try that when the Republicans are truly on the run. For now, I prefer to keep realistic and win with a centrist Dem than lose with a leftist. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/165 "2015-01-05T20:19:41Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > True enough, Democratic turnout in midterms has always been a problem, compounded this year by their cowardly running away from Obama. So 2016 will be a rebound year for Democrats as they ride Hillary’s pantsuit tails to victory I’m with you this far. > [@](#): > > and again in 2018 as they embrace her in the midterms Dem candidates have run away from Barack Obama and Bill Clinton in the midterms during their presidencies. Why should that change in 2018? I wish it weren’t so, but I see no reason for 2018 to break the midterm pattern. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/166 "2015-01-05T20:21:40Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Your confidence that the progressive base will vote for Hillary is … something … Why, is there any reason to believe that progressives will stay home in 2016 if Hillary is the nominee? (Besides you and a few of your friends, that is.) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/167 "2015-01-05T20:27:56Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > On economic issues, I’m not sure she’s all that different from them, nor are most progressives. But whatever floats your boat! You’re right. I’m sure that guys like Cruz and Paul and Rubio would have passed something not unlike Obamacare. I’m sure that Hillary would be all for turning Medicare into a voucher program. And the support of the Republican party for minimum wage increases is another area where there’s no difference between the parties. You perpetually confuse “there isn’t nearly as much difference between the parties as I’d like” with “there’s no difference between the parties.” Sure, I’d like it too if the Dems were more loud-and-proud about being on the side of working people, but if you think there’s no difference between, say, Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis, I’m sure the voting records will prove otherwise in roughly no time flat. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/168 "2015-01-05T22:59:38Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What does the GOP have to offer a poor voter? Safer streets and better education for starters. The kinds of things poor people need to stop being poor. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/169 "2015-01-05T23:04:08Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Why, is there any reason to believe that progressives will stay home in 2016 if Hillary is the nominee? (Besides you and a few of your friends, that is.) I don’t think progressives will stay home, I think real ideological progressives like we see on discussion boards are reliable voters. And also too small a group to be important barring a Bush-Gore type outcome. The people that stay home are the generally uninterested and not very ideological. They only get interested when someone inspires them. I do think there are some groups who Clinton can turn out: women and African-Americans especially. I doubt she will appeal to young voters though. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/170 "2015-01-05T23:07:02Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think your way overestimating Jeb’s popularity. I think he’d do slightly better than McCain and Romney among Latinos, but the only way he’d get close to 40% would be if turnout was as low as it is for mid-terms. > > Further, I see no evidence that Bush will be able to navigate the Republican nomination without pissing off Latinos – that seems to be a requirement, as of late. I don’t think he’s popular at all with the general population. I think that all in all, he’s a weaker candidate than a new face. But the Bush brand name is better among Latinos than other Republicans and Jeb can probably appeal to them even better than his brother did. A lot depends on how much he caters to the base on immigration, but with all the donor money going to him I don’t think he’ll have to flip flop. His brother didn’t have to. THe Bushes have an advantage in GOP primaries that a McCain or Romney doesn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/171 "2015-01-05T23:22:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > To make it short, it’s not that minorities in general didn’t turn out, it’s that minority Democrats didn’t turn out. Republican minority voters did. And while Democrats like to make fun of Republicans for having an overwhelmingly white base of support, Republicans still enjoy the support of millions of minority voters and they did reliably come out in 2010 and 2014. As did Republican poor voters, Republican female voters, and Republican young voters. Fair enough. I don’t understand why the Asian vote swung so far to the right in 2014. [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/11/05/the-2014-electorate-wasnt-just-older-and-whiter-than-2012-it-also-voted-more-republican/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/11/05/the-2014-electorate-wasnt-just-older-and-whiter-than-2012-it-also-voted-more-republican/) 2014 was also the 6th year of a democratic president, so motive didn’t exist as much on the left the same way motive didn’t exist as much on the right in 2006 after 6 years of Bush. I still believe demographics are pushing the country leftward. Maybe not to new england degrees of leftward, but probably a fairly consistent 52-48 split in the national vote in presidential elections, which will make it very uphill for the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/172 "2015-01-05T23:32:51Z")
Quite frankly, I don’t give a shit who wins the presidential election in 2016. The Republicans will keep the House, the Democrats will regain the Senate, and whoever is President will be limited by those facts. The important election to me is the election for state legislatures in 2020. The people elected in that election will control redistricting for the state and federal elections of 2022. I want to see the Democratic mayors, city councilors, county executives, whatever, running in elections for the state legislature in 2016, 2018 and 2020 make a case for being Democrats! ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/173 "2015-01-05T23:58:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > To make it short, it’s not that minorities in general didn’t turn out, it’s that minority Democrats didn’t turn out. Republican minority voters did. And while Democrats like to make fun of Republicans for having an overwhelmingly white base of support, Republicans still enjoy the support of millions of minority voters and they did reliably come out in 2010 and 2014. As did Republican poor voters, Republican female voters, and Republican young voters. Well…yes…you’re right…but do you realize you’re arguing against your own claim? You’re correct in pointing out that the Republicans are better at getting their supporters out for elections. But then you claim that it wouldn’t help the Democrats if they did get increase the number of people who voted. Which is it? Are the people who stay home Republicans or Democrats? If the majority of them are Republicans, then you’re wrong when you say that Republicans get their voters out. If the majority of them are Democrats, then you’re wrong when you say the Democrats wouldn’t benefit from getting them out to vote. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/174 "2015-01-06T00:05:23Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Fair enough. I don’t understand why the Asian vote swung so far to the right in 2014. One suggestion I’ve heard is that it’s a backlash over affirmative action. Some Asian voters worry that if opportunities for blacks and hispanics are increased it’ll be done at the expense of Asians. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/175 "2015-01-06T00:57:10Z")
Kirk/Spock 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/176 "2015-01-06T02:32:17Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What does the GOP have to offer a poor voter? In many cases, similar affinity in moral/social/cultural values. Rural America tends to vote deep red Republican. And rural America is often low-income, but is pro-life, conservative, and supports legalized firearms ownership. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/177 "2015-01-06T02:35:08Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > One suggestion I’ve heard is that it’s a backlash over affirmative action. Some Asian voters worry that if opportunities for blacks and hispanics are increased it’ll be done at the expense of Asians. Yes, the Bamboo Ceiling is a big factor. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/178 "2015-01-06T13:29:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Safer streets and better education for starters. The kinds of things poor people need to stop being poor. Safer streets how? Cheering when unarmed black men are murdered by police? Giving police military equipment and uniforms? Precisely what do Republicans propose that makes streets safer? Better education? How? By pulling money out of inner city schools via vouchers? By tacking up the Ten Commandments? By giving creationism a pulpit in the classroom? Precisely how do Republicans promote better education? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/179 "2015-01-06T13:34:50Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Safer streets how? Cheering when unarmed black men are murdered by police? Giving police military equipment and uniforms? Precisely what do Republicans propose that makes streets safer? > > Better education? How? By pulling money out of inner city schools via vouchers? By tacking up the Ten Commandments? By giving creationism a pulpit in the classroom? Precisely how do Republicans promote better education? Presenting only one side of the argument means…presenting only one side of the argument. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2015, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446/180 "2015-01-06T13:37:12Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Presenting only one side of the argument means…presenting only one side of the argument. I’m asking for the other side- when someone says Republicans want safer streets and better schools, I want to know more than what fits on a bumper sticker. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-face-of-the-blue-wall-the-2016-presidential-election-is-the-democratic-primary/708446.md?page=10)