# In the history of the SDMB has anyone ever been wrong about more things than adaher? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [August 31, 2013, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639 "2013-08-31T04:55:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/441 "2013-11-07T00:23:59Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’ve limited myself to like three threads, two of which I started. And I got something right: I predicted the VA governor race would be much closer than the polls stated due to late movement against McCauliffe, and I was right. > > Meanwhile, much of the liberal Doper community were saying, “blowout”. Fail. As I pointed on the other threads, you really look that pathetic and as dumb as the defensive player in a football game that jumped up and down wildly after making a stop of the opponent late in the game. The amusing thing was seeing one of the opponent players walk calmly next to him tap his shoulder and point at the score board. Even the announcers did make fun of that player. Now that is a Fail. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Negative](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/typo_negative/32/484_2.png) [@Typo\_Negative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Negative)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/442 "2013-11-07T00:25:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Taken in a vacuum, sure. But it’s not the whole story. That would be like saying that Christie’s win is bad news for Democrats beyond that one race. You have become a reverse barometer for reality. Your only hope is to start saying ‘The Democrats have blue skies and easy sailing ahead’! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/443 "2013-11-07T00:48:44Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > There’s no “whole story” that paints this as bad news for the Democrats. A loss in the AG race would be (slightly) bad news, and that may happen after the recount. But the governor’s race is good news- McAuliffe was a bad candidate with no elected experience, and Cuccinelli was the sitting AG running to replace a Republican governor. And McAuliffe won. This was a result that tells us that Virginia is getting bluer and bluer. But the NJ race says nothing about NJ getting redder? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/444 "2013-11-07T00:49:48Z")
> [@Typo\_Negative](#): > > You have become a reverse barometer for reality. Your only hope is to start saying ‘The Democrats have blue skies and easy sailing ahead’! I said McCauliffe would win. He survived my prediction. But then, he survived a President who was dragging him down as well. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/445 "2013-11-07T00:53:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But the NJ race says nothing about NJ getting redder? [Exactly](http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/05/21324042-exit-polls-clinton-beats-christie-in-nj-in-potential-2016-matchup). > [@](#): > > If today was a race between Christie and Clinton, exit polls show Christie would not carry his home state. The former secretary of state, senator, and first lady beats Christie, 48 percent to 44 percent. > > That result could put a dent in Christie’s electability argument, which is what his campaign team wants tonight to be all about – that this is what winning looks like for Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/446 "2013-11-07T00:58:22Z")
Being down by only 4 qualifies as “redder”. Im not saying that NJ is an any danger of going red, or is even going to be more friendly to Republicans going forward. I’m just arguing that the result of one race means nothing. It mean nothing in 2009, I think we’d all agree on that, wouldn’t we? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/447 "2013-11-07T01:07:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But then, he survived a President who was dragging him down as well. He “survived” by having this President campaign for him. There’s no reason to believe that McAuliffe’s association with the President hurt him in any way- people who didn’t like the President (from the right) were already unlikely to vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/448 "2013-11-07T01:10:02Z")
Then explain how an easy win turned into a nailbiter. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/449 "2013-11-07T01:13:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then explain how an easy win turned into a nailbiter. It was never going to be an easy win. There was a brief spike during the shutdown, and maybe a few outlier polls, but for the most part he had a moderate lead the whole time. If this was a few points closer, than that’s interesting (and from what I’ve read, this appears to be due to the instability of a third party candidate getting more than marginal support), but it’s not an indication of some great weakness. McAuliffe is a bad candidate who most Democrats don’t like- and he still beat the Republican because he was even worse. If it’s a sign of anything, it’s a sign that the Republicans are unable to put electable candidates up for office, in many elections. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/450 "2013-11-07T01:15:52Z")
Now we agree. However, if Democrats are counting on that to happen, that’s not exactly a winning strategy. Sounds like 2014 is going to be a lot of “Run away from Obamacare, hope Republicans nominate extreme candidates”. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/451 "2013-11-07T01:17:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Being down by only 4 qualifies as “redder”. Im not saying that NJ is an any danger of going red, or is even going to be more friendly to Republicans going forward. I’m just arguing that the result of one race means nothing. > > It mean nothing in 2009, I think we’d all agree on that, wouldn’t we? I am a little confused. Are you arguing that the result of the race in NJ means nothing, but the result in Virginia means something? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/452 "2013-11-07T01:19:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Now we agree. However, if Democrats are counting on that to happen, that’s not exactly a winning strategy. Sounds like 2014 is going to be a lot of “Run away from Obamacare, hope Republicans nominate extreme candidates”. Obamacare had very little to do with this election. Virginia voters’ opinions about the ACA mirror the country at large- a slight majority disapprove of the ACA, but far more people want to fix it than kill it. The ACA approval ratings have not significantly changed in the last few weeks, surprisingly enough. Cuccinelli bragged that he was the first AG to not allow the ACA exchanges into his state- and that backfired. If it had anything to do with the election, it was this- as was shown in the shutdown, and repeated in this election, no-holds-barred opposition to the ACA is a political loser. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/453 "2013-11-07T01:30:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Sounds like 2014 is going to be a lot of “Run away from Obamacare, hope Republicans nominate extreme candidates”. I will predict that Republicans will somehow try to take credit for the success of Obamacare in 2014. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/454 "2013-11-07T01:41:46Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > I will predict that Republicans will somehow try to take credit for the success of Obamacare in 2014. The story writes itself: our bitching and moaning led to improvements to the website. And the website IS Obamacare. Therefore, the GOP is wholly responsible. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/455 "2013-11-07T01:49:31Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > I will predict that Republicans will somehow try to take credit for the success of Obamacare in 2014. Are you trying to knock adaher off his throne? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/456 "2013-11-07T02:09:18Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > I am a little confused. Are you arguing that the result of the race in NJ means nothing, but the result in Virginia means something? All elections mean “something”, but few mean that a state is trending one way or another. Virginia wasn’t becoming redder in 2009 and it isn’t becoming bluer in 2013. Neither is New Jersey. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/457 "2013-11-07T02:10:23Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Obamacare had very little to do with this election. Virginia voters’ opinions about the ACA mirror the country at large- a slight majority disapprove of the ACA, but far more people want to fix it than kill it. > > The ACA approval ratings have not significantly changed in the last few weeks, surprisingly enough. Cuccinelli bragged that he was the first AG to not allow the ACA exchanges into his state- and that backfired. > > If it had anything to do with the election, it was this- as was shown in the shutdown, and repeated in this election, no-holds-barred opposition to the ACA is a political loser. Then why did the anti-ACA candidates win a majority? And if you look at the exit polls, the GOP won the 18-24 age group. That’s got to be a big red flag for Democrats. McCauliffe’s support among the youngest was the lowest of any age group, a dismal 39%. Hat tip to Marley for the link: > **[va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf](https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf)** > > 2.81 MB ---
**Author:** ![Subterraneanus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Subterraneanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Subterraneanus)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/458 "2013-11-07T02:12:14Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Are you trying to knock adaher off his throne? Perhaps fear needs to use the toilet too. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/459 "2013-11-07T02:18:57Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Are you trying to knock adaher off his throne? Do you think the website cannot be fixed? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2013, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639/460 "2013-11-07T02:33:17Z")
A) That’s not a sure thing. Britain just had to give up on a project of similar scope. B) It’s not just the website. Fix the website without fixing the underlying systems, and you get a disaster. Paper applications can’t be processed either until that gets fixed. C) It’s not just the systems. The cancellation notices are not IT problems. THe high rates are not IT problems. The young not signing up are not IT problems. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-history-of-the-sdmb-has-anyone-ever-been-wrong-about-more-things-than-adaher/667639.md?page=24)