# In the next 50 years, what's the best case scenario for Cuba? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 19, 2012, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308 "2012-04-19T18:49:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![drastic\_quench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e36b37/32.png) [@drastic\_quench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drastic_quench)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2012, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/1 "2012-04-19T18:49:35Z")
– preferably from the perspective of Cubans, not the best case scenario from the perspective of U.S. interests. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2012, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/2 "2012-04-19T19:32:38Z")
Cuba peacefully transitions to a capitalist, constitutional liberal democracy and joins NAFTA perhaps even becoming a US state. Its a win-win situation for all. ---
**Author:** ![Tristan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tristan/32/18058_2.png) [@Tristan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tristan)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2012, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/3 "2012-04-19T19:41:06Z")
Raul Castro starts Cuba down a slow road to modernization and the opening of their markets to free market capitalism following the Chinese model. However, having China as a cautionary tale, they avoid the pitfalls and enviornmental disasters that have cause such damage to their nation. Given the size of Cuba, I could see special “economic zones” dedicated to tourism. Hopefully they will go slow enough to avoid having the chaos that befell the Soviet Union. Cuba has all the tools it needs to really be a lovely country… educated populace, land, resources and a very resourceful people. If they can transition to a democratic system with minimal corruption (a very big if) there is no reason they can’t become the shining gem of the caribbean. They don’t want to be a state, and we don’t need them to be a state. Better for them in the long run to be a free and prosperous Cuba, for Cubans. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2012, 9:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/4 "2012-04-23T09:51:09Z")
Our 11th province. ---
**Author:** ![DrFidelius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drfidelius/32/3447_2.png) [@DrFidelius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrFidelius)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2012, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/5 "2012-04-23T11:21:44Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Our 11th province. Why not? Sometimes it seems that half the people there are Canadians on a holiday excursion. ---
**Author:** ![drastic\_quench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e36b37/32.png) [@drastic\_quench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drastic_quench)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2012, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/6 "2012-04-23T11:38:51Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Our 11th province. If you grab Cuba, America will have Nunavut. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2012, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/7 "2012-04-23T12:17:26Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Our 11th province. Denmark once sold The Virgin Islands to the USA. Big mistake, but I’d be willing to sell you Cuba for the right price. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2012, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/8 "2012-04-23T22:41:42Z")
From the best POV of cubans? I would _assume_ government and societal reforms that lead to high levels of political and civil freedoms combined with rapid economic growth (8% a year or so). I’m not Cuban and have never visited, so I don’t know for sure. But that is my guess on what most people want when you get down to it. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2012, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/9 "2012-04-23T22:49:25Z")
Cuba was a bit of a vacation hotspot prior to the revolution. It still has a resort sector that folks from the US can’t go to. I see that as their main economic engine in the future. Their problems lie in that the resort workers live in poverty - they’ll need to work through that issue or else they’ll have another revolution. They need to open up their economy - and the US has to drop the embargo - the tourist dollars will flow rapidly in. Likely there will be a lot of crap and nonsense at the beginning - lots of money flowing into poor hands is always going to cause problems - so it’ll take a few decades to stabilize even if there is a transition. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2012, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-the-next-50-years-whats-the-best-case-scenario-for-cuba/619308/10 "2012-04-24T00:49:34Z")
Maybe they could discover oil in the process and gain a bit of cash to help things along.