In the wake of a pandemic could Americans be forced to get a vaccine?

The Quarantine Zone
21

Besides other issues mentioned, there’s likely to be legitimate variation in how people see (ostensible) ‘facts’ based on their general outlook. For example IMO some people exaggerate the accuracy problems with COVID infection and antibody tests based on socio-political outlook and ‘who is in charge’ at the highest level (it’s the wrong people in their view, therefore a tendency to view everything more pessimistically). Though it is my opinion, there are factual cases and examples of tests not accurate enough to reliably give the needed information (sometimes that’s things that were screwed up , sometimes it’s apparently just the state of the art wrt a new disease). It’s a matter or judgement if people are viewing this fairly or not. I think often not, but I’m not saying people who disagree are ‘deniers’ etc.

So likewise there could, very likely will IMO, be similar divergence in judgement about how effective a vaccine is relative to possible side effects. Different people will view different information sources which may inject their own biases as to which facts they emphasize. Again, it would be cool if these things were all a matter of some people being ‘pro science’ and others the opposite but it’s really not that simple IME.

Other thing is a pretty effective vaccine doesn’t need to be given to everybody to have a big positive effect overall. And, unlike the increasingly nakedly political fights about masks, which have little value protecting the wearer whether or not they make much difference to other people in various situations, getting a vaccine is basically to protect the person getting it. People can add on how they are also doing it to protect society because they are so noble etc., but they know the main purpose is to make their own infection less serious if it occurs. So it’s more self regulating in terms of who gets it and their outcomes. With the exception of minors, but fortunately this disease is not mainly dangerous to kids (with some serious exceptions). The usual vaccine debate is about anti-vaxxers being criticized mainly (and justifiably in my personal view) for endangering theirs and other kids.

So I’m sure everyone will not be forced to get the vaccine in a country like the US, but there probably won’t be an overwhelmingly strong rationale for that anyway.

22

I doubt greatly that there will be any reason to force all Americans to get a vaccine.

Even under the most pessimistic R0 estimates, we only need something like 70-80% of the population to get it for herd immunity. Measles has much higher herd immunity requirements and we only fall below that in isolated pockets of anti-vax nonsense.

Make kids and healthcare workers get it and make it available to everyone else who wants it and that will be enough.

23

If it passes Constitutional muster, make prisoners (State? Federal? Both?) and military personnel get the vaccine, too.

24

The military definitely compels vaccination already.

25

It’s going to be hard enough getting vaccines to all the people who actually want them, let alone all the refuseniks. Anyone wants to go to the back of the queue on purpose, I’m sure nobody need stand in their way.

26

What is the point? The vaccine, if it does indeed work, will protect those who get it. Anyone who wants to take their chances unvaccinated can be free to do so. Why is forced vaccination a consideration?

27

It is the same problem as with any of the anti-vaxxers. There are some people who legitimately cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons - ie allergic responses, or do not gain protection from vaccination - immuno-compromised - and a big aspect of that is people on chemotherapy. But other conditions as well.

Those people gain protection from infection via herd immunity. Society can carry a small number of these, but once other people start refusing vaccination, we get into trouble. People that society should be protecting with collective action become at risk. Immuno-compromised people not only can easily get infected, but they are especially vulnerable as they will have difficulty fighting it as well.

This is just the age old anti-vaxxer problem. Nothing new. Idiots failing to protect their own are not the entire story.

28

‘You get the vaccine to protect yourself’ is not the whole story, but it’s most of it. In contrast to the mask debate which is hardly at all about protecting the wearer, so is inherently more controversial (who is to say what threshold of risk to me I should accept from other people?, when the risk is mainly to myself it’s a more self contained decision). If a huge segment of the population refuses vaccination that’s a general population problem. If it’s a fairly small % then it’s not really. Herd immunity is not a 100% threshold nor anywhere near.

And again the age old anti-vaxxer problem is mainly focused on immunization of children, who can’t decide for themselves and can’t be relied on to protect themselves if they are especially vulnerable. Fortunately, this disease is a relatively small problem for kids. Around 80% of US COVID deaths so far people over 65 per WSJ graph yesterday, 0-17 age group rounds to 0% (though not literally zero, one life shouldn’t be needlessly lost, but you still have to keep things in perspective). Vaxx/anti-vaxx has mainly been about immunization for children’s diseases. Nobody proposes mandatory adult seasonal flu vaccination (which ~1/2 or more of adults don’t get, depending on stat) even though people not getting those shots costs lives. But people are much more afraid of this disease, there’s no way anything like 1/2 will neglect to get vaccinated assuming full availability and non-coercive encouragement. Hardcore anti-vaxxers are a small % of the population, almost surely too small to have a big effect on the outcome of a COVID vaccine, which realistically is likely to be less than 100% effective itself (though one hopes more effective than many years’ seasonal flu vaccines are).

29

Most vaccines do not work 100% for those vaccinated. Getting a large group of people vaccinated protects everybody.

30

My son was not allowed to be homeschooled til I provided vaccine updates. Odd.

31

Do you all remember what happened with the Swine Flu vaccine in the 70s?

32

I wasn’t born until 77, so no. What happened with the swine flu vaccine in the 70s?

33

Mary Mallon had the science explained to her several times over, and an ultimatum presented twice: stop working in kitchens to keep your freedom. Handwash when you prepare food informally, or before sitting down to communal tables. She was set free once, and was cooking again in a matter of months, and making people sick very quickly.

Then she took a series of jobs in institutions, where she was harder to track down. She went through a bunch, and left a wake of typhoid, but wasn’t always aware of it, and since sometimes the cases popped up after she’d left, she didn’t believe she could be responsible. She took a job in a private home again, and that was the last straw. She been warned and threatened twice, and given a taste of quarantine. After that, she went into permanent quarantine. She lived on an island where people could choose to visit her, but she could not leave.

The health authorities even got her a job at one point where she would most expressly not be cooking, but she didn’t like it.

She had a chance, and second, and a third chance, and wouldn’t modify her behavior.

It seems to me that at the third go-round, you accept that these people are serious, and have authority, so however dumb you think their ideas are, you should knuckle under.

There were a few cases of swine flu, and one or two deaths attributed to it, so President Ford had a poorly researched vaccine rushed to production. The swine flu turned out not to be a terrible threat (it’s H1N1, so it’s a bad one), and the seasonal flu was something else that the swine flu shot didn’t protect against. Meanwhile, the rushed-to-production vaccine had some side effects, and was blamed for Guillian-Barre syndrome (I’m not sure if it was ever proved, though). The seasonal flu itself that was poorly vaccinated for could have caused Guillian-Barre; it was a fact that cases did rise.

So, rushing a vaccine to production is a big bad, and could be REALLY bad here, because children are getting a post-recovery syndrome where their organs, including hearts and lungs become inflamed. It may be possible for a vaccine to provoke this as well. A LOT of testing is necessary.

It could even turn out that pre-adolescents can’t get the vaccine.

34

I can see people being given the option of vaccination or a limited time quarantine. That seems fine.

But I can’t imagine “get vaccinated or go to jail” not running afoul of the right to privacy affirmed in Roe v. Wade. “My Body, My Choice” right? And mandating that all insurance companies must require it (or else what?) sounds like the same thing but with more steps.

35

How did the worldwide small pox vaccine effort work? I don’t think threats of loss of liberties was used, but probably the disease itself was harsh enough that people needed little encouragement to participate. And the effort probably focused on outbreaks and not a blanket decree. However, I seriously doubt our current world and country could cooperate enough to pull-off a similar thing, much less get people to cooperate for the greater good. Maybe if it was slipped into the water supply, tho…

To answer the OP, no, Americans could not be forced into vaccination. We can’t even force people to pay taxes or vote in their own interests.

36

That would be a slippery slope. What if they start requiring genetic tests and organ removal of “dangerous organs” if a person has a gene a current theory ties to cancer of that organ, “Angelina Jolie” style?

37

I would endorse that “A LOT” heartily. Given that kids are at much less risk of serious disease from this virus than they are from seasonal influenza, it will be very very hard to prove that the vaccine is less risky for them than the disease is.

The harms caused if it is approved for children before such is proven to a reasonable degree of certainty and then it even appears that it has serious adverse outcomes inclusive of possible risk of Pediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome, will not just be to the few children impacted - it would undermine confidence in the system that approve it without such evidence in hand.

Forcing it on kids in a belief that such protects adults will be a hard sell. And should be.

38

You catch more flies with honey than vinegar.

Why not offer a tax credit for getting vaccinated? $200 credit with an advance to the time of the shot. If that doesn’t get 90% of the population clamoring for a shot, nothing will.

For the seasonal flu, you could offer less, maybe $50.

Someone challenge my idea.

40

For quarantine they could use the leg bracelet like they do for house arrest people now. I don’t know if that would be OK in a court case.

I know people who work in drug clinical trials and they don’t get the flu shot because they think it can harm them. Some people are just weird.