# In what industries is oil the least replacable?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-industries-is-oil-the-least-replacable/626899>\
**Category:** Factual Questions\
**Created:** [July 1, 2012, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-industries-is-oil-the-least-replacable/626899 "2012-07-01T14:32:06Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\
**Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-industries-is-oil-the-least-replacable/626899/21 "2012-07-01T23:24:32Z")

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The argument’s kind of absurd; at a certain price point, oil from the shale formations in the West, and coal-derived oil will be competitive with petroleum, so there’s little real likelihood that there won’t be enough oil or oil-like feedstocks for chemical processes in the foreseeable future.

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**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\
**Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-industries-is-oil-the-least-replacable/626899/22 "2012-07-01T23:34:08Z")

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> [@t-bonham@scc.net](#):
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> For example, corn has been bred to produce big ears with large kernels, and to put only minimal energy into producing the stalk & leaves. But it’s the stalk & leaves that are fermented to produce biofuel. Otherwise they would be used as low value sileage or plowed under as fertilizer, so it’s mostly a waste product of the corn plant that is used for biofuel. A corn plant bred for biofuel would produce less corn and more leaves. Or more likely, some more grass-like, perennial plant would be preferred. Especially one that coould grow on more marginal land, with less cultivation needed.

Ethanol is produced from the kernels. There’s research going into ‘cellulosic ethanol’, which would extract it from stalks and leaves, but no cellulosic ethanol program has escaped research stage into commercial production.

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**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\
**Post date:** [July 1, 2012, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-industries-is-oil-the-least-replacable/626899/23 "2012-07-01T23:41:00Z")

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> [@Martin\_Hyde](#):
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> As for my claim, it’s backed up by science, and lots of applied technology in Brazil (meaning this isn’t just theoretical):

Lets take the discussion to [another thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=15228040#post15228040).

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**Author:** ![jacobsta811](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jacobsta811/32/2893_2.png) [@jacobsta811](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jacobsta811)\
**Post date:** [July 2, 2012, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-industries-is-oil-the-least-replacable/626899/24 "2012-07-02T03:37:40Z")

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> [@Peter\_Morris](#):
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> As I understand it, with current technology it costs more fuel to grow, harvest and process vegetables for oil than it produces. Barring a major breakthrough, without fossil oil, it won’t be possible to obtain plant starch.

There are other posts above about whether it is or isn’t net energy negative. My point is that even if it were _hugely_ net energy negative to grow plants for biofuel/plastic production, that would still work for the OP. We’re positing only oil running out, not the non-existance of easily creatable electric tractors powered by coal, wind, propane, etc. IE, the process is at worst _energy_ net negative, there is no reason it would be oil/plastic/whatever net negative.

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