# In what percent of small-time armed robberies are the robbers caught and convicted? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [November 25, 2007, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673 "2007-11-25T05:37:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Paladud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Paladud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paladud)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/1 "2007-11-25T05:37:27Z")
By small-time I mean liquor stores and the like rather than banks. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Slant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c57346/32.png) [@Mr.Slant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Slant)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/2 "2007-11-25T06:27:37Z")
I’m uncertain anyone has this statistic. The FBI’s uniform crime reports don’t break crimes down this way, so local reporting systems appear not to either. Your best bet might be a guess from a cop who frequents this board. For an overview of % of subjects arrested in robberies, you can check this out: [http://www.ncsconline.org/wc/CourTopics/FAQs.asp?topic=VioCri](http://www.ncsconline.org/wc/CourTopics/FAQs.asp?topic=VioCri) ---
**Author:** ![Paladud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Paladud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paladud)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/3 "2007-11-25T06:35:47Z")
That site gives general trends for crimes committed and convictions. However, there is no way to determine to what extent the discrepancy is due to individuals being caught after committing multiple offenses vs individuals simply not being caught. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 9:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/4 "2007-11-25T09:56:05Z")
So you’re thinking about a career change? Consider wire fraud or embezzlement. Even if you do get caught and convicted, federal prison is so much nicer, and the sentences are shorter than those for armed robbery. ---
**Author:** ![engineer\_comp\_geek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/engineer_comp_geek/32/504_2.png) [@engineer\_comp\_geek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/engineer_comp_geek)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/5 "2007-11-25T10:08:04Z")
[QUOTE=guizot] So you’re thinking about a career change? Consider wire fraud or embezzlement. Even if you do get caught and convicted, federal prison is so much nicer, and the sentences are shorter than those for armed robbery. [/QUOTE] [Michael Bolton from Office Space] We get caught laundering money, we’re not going to white-collar resort prison. No, no, no. We’re going to federal POUND ME IN THE ASS prison. [/MB] As for the OP, I found this statistic from 2003: > [@](#): > > Law enforcement agencies nationwide cleared 46.5 percent of violent crimes in 2003. By offense type, agencies cleared 62.4 percent of murders, 55.9 percent of aggravated assaults, 44.0 percent of forcible rapes, and 26.3 percent of robberies. From here: [http://crime.about.com/b/2004/11/06/less-than-half-of-2003-crimes-solved.htm](http://crime.about.com/b/2004/11/06/less-than-half-of-2003-crimes-solved.htm) I can’t imagine that the statistics have changed dramatically in the past few years, so you’re going to be somewhere around 25%. In my quick googling I didn’t see a statistic that separated out the liquor store and bank type robberies. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Slant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c57346/32.png) [@Mr.Slant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Slant)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/6 "2007-11-25T15:41:18Z")
Actually, I seem to recall that the clearance rate was much higher for bank robberies. I wish I could find a cite! I’ve got a notion that it’s somewhere around 60%; certainly it’s much easier to investigate a crime that happens in a building with 7 cameras and multiple staffers than it is with a c-store. That being said, we have the ‘repeat criminal’ bias here, too. A lot of bank robbers appear to be serial bank robbers, and if you arrest a guy after robbery #10 and get him to confess, it’s not quite the same as arresting 10 guys who comitted only one robbery a piece. If I really wanted the answer to the OP’s question, I’d probably have to go through the crime reports for a few metro and suburban police departments myself… that would turn it into a multi-month research project of the dullest possible type. ---
**Author:** ![mks57](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9bd4f/32.png) [@mks57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mks57)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/7 "2007-11-25T18:18:05Z")
I don’t know if it’s still true, but robbing a bank used to guarantee an FBI investigation, something that any intelligent criminal would avoid. I never understood why people robbed banks. The average take is low. They have lots of cameras, dye packs, etc. It triggers the involvement of the feds, who have the time, money, and manpower to investigate and prosecute to the full extent of the law. Conviction rates are high and sentences are severe. If you want to get rich via crime, it’s a lousy choice. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Slant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c57346/32.png) [@Mr.Slant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Slant)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/8 "2007-11-25T20:08:51Z")
Yeah, it still gets the FBI involved, at least as of a month ago. Those boys ain’t like on TV… ---
**Author:** ![Nametag](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nametag/32/406_2.png) [@Nametag](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nametag)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/9 "2007-11-25T20:29:36Z")
[QUOTE=mks57] I don’t know if it’s still true, but robbing a bank used to guarantee an FBI investigation, something that any intelligent criminal would avoid. **I never understood why people robbed banks.** The average take is low. They have lots of cameras, dye packs, etc. It triggers the involvement of the feds, who have the time, money, and manpower to investigate and prosecute to the full extent of the law. Conviction rates are high and sentences are severe. If you want to get rich via crime, it’s a lousy choice. [/QUOTE] [Because that’s where the money is.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Sutton) ---
**Author:** ![mks57](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9bd4f/32.png) [@mks57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mks57)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/10 "2007-11-25T20:46:46Z")
[QUOTE=Nametag] [Because that’s where the money is.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Sutton) [/QUOTE] According to the FBI’s 2006 statistics, the average haul is about $10K. That’s not very impressive. A car thief could easily beat that. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Slant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c57346/32.png) [@Mr.Slant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Slant)\ **Post date:** [November 25, 2007, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/11 "2007-11-25T20:51:28Z")
Bear in mind, that average gets skewed by the guys who know EXACTLY what they’re doing and get $25K hauls. If an unskilled bank robber goes out, he’s likely going to be closer to 2K than 10K. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2007, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/12 "2007-11-26T13:11:19Z")
[QUOTE=mks57] I don’t know if it’s still true, but robbing a bank used to guarantee an FBI investigation, something that any intelligent criminal would avoid. I never understood why people robbed banks. [/QUOTE] You sort of answer your own question I think. Intelligent criminals avoid bank robberies, which leaves the **unintelligent** criminals, of which there is no shortage. From what I’ve read over the years, modern bank robbers tend to be bottom-of-the-barrel criminals. ---
**Author:** ![Lunar\_Saltlick](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/977dab/32.png) [@Lunar\_Saltlick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lunar_Saltlick)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2007, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/13 "2007-11-26T13:59:09Z")
I know you’re looking for a factual answer, but you still might want to check out Elmore Leonard’s novel _Swag_, which is about a couple of guys who specialize in small-time robbery. They purposely avoid banks and big scores. They have a set of rules about robbery that they feel pretty much guarantee they’ll never be caught. It goes well for a while, but, well, you know, it just couldn’t last. It’s a novel for anybody who’s ever wondered about those guys who seem to hang around the condo swimming pool all day, and still manage to pay the rent and own a car. ---
**Author:** ![Kevbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e47774/32.png) [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)\ **Post date:** [November 26, 2007, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-what-percent-of-small-time-armed-robberies-are-the-robbers-caught-and-convicted/427673/14 "2007-11-26T16:27:56Z")
[QUOTE=mks57] According to the FBI’s 2006 statistics, the average haul is about $10K. That’s not very impressive. A car thief could easily beat that. [/QUOTE] Not in cash, and probably not from a fence. A sophisticated organized operation may well be able to sell a hot car at or close to bluebook, but the guy who actually stole the car will only see a tiny fraction of that. In any case, converting stolen goods to cash involves at least one other person and additional time, trouble, and risk. It also requires planning, and forward thinking, and if you are capable of those, you might instead persue an education, get an honest job, and make more money each year than 99.99% of criminals will ever see in thier career.