# In which I eat some crow \[regarding a prediction/bet that GWB would attack Iran\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 19, 2009, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061 "2009-01-19T23:29:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2009, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/1 "2009-01-19T23:29:11Z")
Ages ago there was a Great Debates thread discussing the likelihood of the US attacking Iran. Several people not only found it very likely but damn near certain. **Bricker** disagreed and offered to bet all-comers that he was right. Enter me. I hadn’t yet posted in the thread, but I felt that a US-Iran conflict was in the cards, and none of the posters in the thread were prepared to put their money where their mouths were. So I did. I bet **Bricker** $100 that the US military would overtly attack Iran prior to January 20th 2009. Well, it’s January 20th 2009 (it is here anyway, you Yanks will have to wait a few more hours), and unless I am severely out of touch no attack has occurred. I officially owe **Bricker** $100. I’ve been sure for quite a long time that this would be the outcome, and I’m much happier this way than if I had won and there had been another damn fool war. I remember thinking after the 2006 elections that that was it; there would be no attack. So why did I think so at the time? Well, the US was in Iraq, I was scared, and it seemed like the Bush administration was crusading against the world. I still believe that if Iraq had gone better there would have been a reasonable chance that Iran would have been attacked eventually, but it’s not the kind of chance I would bet money on. In short, the world appeared to be changing rapidly and unpleasantly and I got carried away. **Bricker** did not. **Bricker** : I’m damn glad I lost. Email me or send a private message to work out the transfer of money. ---
**Author:** ![Fantome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9c0ed/32.png) [@Fantome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fantome)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2009, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/2 "2009-01-19T23:31:48Z")
$100 says this thread gets moved to MPSIMP. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Catchy\_Wins](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Catchy\_Wins](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Catchy_Wins)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2009, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/3 "2009-01-19T23:34:20Z")
awesome. I remember reading that thread… good on you for putting your money where your mouth is… I think 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2009, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/4 "2009-01-19T23:45:38Z")
> [@Fantome](#): > > $100 says this thread gets moved to MPSIMP. 😃 Mayhap you’re right, but it started here and damnit I’m going to try and end it here. Anyway, you know that someone will start discussing why Iran wasn’t attacked, if it was ever probable that it would be, what would have happened if Nyarlathotep had sent Bush an I-dare-you email and so forth. ---
**Author:** ![Tristan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tristan/32/18058_2.png) [@Tristan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tristan)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/5 "2009-01-20T00:01:09Z")
Totally off-topic, but was/isn’t there a bet that some poster would stay away from the Boards for 5 years for $500 or something along those lines? Anyone remember that? ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/6 "2009-01-20T00:06:59Z")
> [@Tristan](#): > > Totally off-topic, but was/isn’t there a bet that some poster would stay away from the Boards for 5 years for $500 or something along those lines? > > Anyone remember that? It seems to ring a bell… ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/7 "2009-01-20T00:09:29Z")
While I am not one to bet on wars, my thinking pretty much mirrored yours, **Priceguy**. And I also echo your sentiments, glad you lost and glad as well that **Bricker** will enjoy some smooth single-malt of his choice without yet another war in full boil. * * * **Tristan** , not doing a search, but what your thinking of is **Lib’s** offer to **pseudo rubber rubber** (sp?). They’ve since mended fences (or so it seems) and the latter is back on board. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/8 "2009-01-20T00:31:27Z")
Damn you, Bricker! I’ve offered that same bet countless times; never had a serious taker. I note there was a story about a week ago that the Bush Administration actually stiff-armed Israeli requests for assistance in Israel attacking Iran. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/9 "2009-01-20T00:40:11Z")
[**U.S. Rejected Aid for Israeli Raid on Iranian Nuclear Site**](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/washington/11iran.html?_r=2&hp) > [@](#): > > White House officials never conclusively determined whether Israel had decided to go ahead with the strike before the United States protested, or whether Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel was trying to goad the White House into more decisive action before Mr. Bush left office. But the Bush administration was particularly alarmed by an Israeli request to fly over Iraq to reach Iran’s major nuclear complex at Natanz, where the country’s only known uranium enrichment plant is located. > > The White House denied that request outright, American officials said, and the Israelis backed off their plans, at least temporarily. But the tense exchanges also prompted the White House to step up intelligence-sharing with Israel and brief Israeli officials on new American efforts to subtly sabotage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, a major covert program that Mr. Bush is about to hand off to President-elect Barack Obama. Methinks Obama’s going to have to clone himself if he’s to deal with all the shit the Bush Administration has left him on his plate. Wishing him The Best of Luck doesn’t even begin to cover it… ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/10 "2009-01-20T18:33:25Z")
This covers some of my losses on the Democrats-Win-Whitehouse bets I lost! Woo hoo! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/half_man_half_wit/32/21766_2.png) [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Half_Man_Half_Wit)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/11 "2009-01-20T18:41:33Z")
> [@Fantome](#): > > $100 says this thread gets moved to MPSIMP. 😃 Mundane Pointless Settlements I Must Pay? 😛 Anyway, just today I read all about how Iran’s gonna have [the bomb](http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/iran_nuke_this_year/2009/01/19/172982.html?promo_code=2A89-1) by summer… ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2009, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/12 "2009-01-20T23:36:01Z")
Now, don’t be so hasty. He may still attack Iran, as a private citizen. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Knig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/cdc98d/32.png) [@Typo\_Knig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Knig)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2009, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/13 "2009-01-21T00:02:26Z")
I was going to start a thread like this, but I was at a [local event all day](http://www.pic2009.org/content/home/) 😃 I did not put money on the line, but I make this [post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9387471&postcount=3) in this [thread=452221]thread[/thread]. (Um, I was really living up to my Dopername there, so can we just 1,$s/Iraq/Iran/g and let me be embarrassed? :smack: Thanks.) I thought that Duh-bya would start a war with Iran for sure. He seemed **THAT** stubborn and disconnected from reality. Also, Cheney wanted it, and what Cheney wanted, Cheney got - end of story. So I freely admit my prediction was wrong, and I am hugely relieved. I’d love to know who talked Dubya out of attacking Iran. _That_ person should get a Presidential Medal of Freedom! 'Cause, for a while there an attack of some kind on Iran looked like a “slam dunk”. :shudder: Say, do we know whether Scooter Libby has a pardon, or am I zero for two? Oh for two you say? Typical. ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2009, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/14 "2009-01-21T00:30:12Z")
I lost money in 2003 when I predicted W could not be so utterly stupid as to attack Iraq without UN approval. He has subsequently shown to be a hundred times stupidder than I ever imagined at that time. Some people saw it earlier than I did. ---
**Author:** ![Fubaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/c2a13f/32.png) [@Fubaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fubaya)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2009, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-which-i-eat-some-crow-regarding-a-prediction-bet-that-gwb-would-attack-iran/482061/15 "2009-01-21T00:33:26Z")
If things had gone well in Iraq, I think Priceguy would have won the bet.