# In your honest opinion, how close (or far) are we from a manned mission to Mars? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 15, 2019, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196 "2019-03-15T21:10:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Dark\_Sponge](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dark_sponge/32/121_2.png) [@Dark\_Sponge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dark_Sponge)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2021, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/62 "2021-02-09T16:50:53Z")
I would have had a hard time imagining rockets landing on ships 20 years ago. I think it would be possible to have a manned mission in another 20 years. Whether it will happen or not is a different question. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2021, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/63 "2021-02-09T17:01:06Z")
I’ll probably live to 2050 or thereabouts, and I think I’ll see a manned mission to mars, assuming there is the political will to do it. I find Musk’s predictions utterly absurd (2026??), but I think his innovations will take us a good way there, and he’s still a relatively young man. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2021, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/64 "2021-02-09T17:07:02Z")
> [@naita](#): > > Personally I’d much rather see a permanent presence on the moon. **If we can make it there, we can make it anywhere.** And it’s a much closer platform to experiment on. I’m sure you mean New York, New York ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2021, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/65 "2021-02-09T17:20:29Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > I’m sure you mean New York, New York I don’t think I do, but if sending a selection of people who’ve “made it” in New York to a space colony anywhere and see if they can get to self-sustainability proves me wrong, that is a sacrifice I’m willing to make. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2021, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/66 "2021-02-09T22:14:21Z")
It depends on if SpaceX can get Starship to work. If they can get it up and running than a small group of aficionados will make the trip- risk be damned, health problems be damned, survival be damned; they’ll at least try. On the other hand if we have to wait for NASA to do it it will be “later”, which is defined as “halfway between not right now and never”. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2021, 9:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/67 "2021-02-10T09:48:29Z")
> [@naita](#): > > I don’t think I do, but if sending a selection of people who’ve “made it” in New York to a space colony anywhere and see if they can get to self-sustainability proves me wrong, that is a sacrifice I’m willing to make. OK, I’ll start spreading the news ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2021, 9:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/68 "2021-02-10T09:54:10Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > It depends on if SpaceX can get Starship to work. If they can get it up and running than a small group of aficionados will make the trip- risk be damned, health problems be damned, survival be damned; they’ll at least try. I wonder, is it actually possible to form a contract that would properly indemnify SpaceX from responsibility of sending people on a suicide mission to Mars? Or is this just a case where they would budget a few tens of millions for the cost of compensating relatives etc? ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2021, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/69 "2021-02-10T12:59:26Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > OK, I’ll start spreading the news Will you be a part of it? ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2021, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/70 "2021-02-10T16:35:47Z")
I want to be a part of it ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2021, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/71 "2021-02-10T19:10:06Z")
It’s up to you! ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2021, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/72 "2021-02-10T21:22:01Z")
Then there is the whole getting a launch license from the FAA issue. I don’t think Elon is serious about going to Mars. He is using that aspirational target to motivate people to develop space travel as far as he can. He has done more for space travel than all the Government agencies since the Apollo program. But Mars is very unlikely. He won’t get a license until he can demonstrate safety and he can’t demonstrate safety until he flies to Mars. Catch-22. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2021, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/73 "2021-02-10T21:43:33Z")
> [@rbroome](#): > > He won’t get a license until he can demonstrate safety and he can’t demonstrate safety until he flies to Mars. Catch-22. I suppose he could demonstrate safety to some extent by sending successful autonomous missions - I mean, some of that will be necessary to provision, in advance, a return mission anyway ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2021, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/74 "2021-02-10T23:02:36Z")
Don’t worry about the crew getting along. No gravity, so they’ll have a spring loaded device they can attach themselves to so they can do the “trust fall”. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2021, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/75 "2021-02-11T00:45:20Z")
Some people think we need to get over our society’s risk-averseness if we’re ever going to advance into space. Sure during the Apollo program they did everything possible to minimize risk but the missions themselves were the equivalent of sending three men to cross the Atlantic in a rowboat. Contrast the voyages of the age of sail, especially the Manila treasure fleets where crew mortality was simply a line item in the balance sheet (to the point where the ships would set off with knowingly not enough food and water so they could carry more goods). ---
**Author:** ![Dark\_Sponge](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dark_sponge/32/121_2.png) [@Dark\_Sponge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dark_Sponge)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2021, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/76 "2021-02-16T17:30:18Z")
> [@Mangetout](#): > > I suppose he could demonstrate safety to some extent by sending successful autonomous missions - I mean, some of that will be necessary to provision, in advance, a return mission anyway Yes, I read somewhere his plan is to send a number of autonomous missions to stockpile supplies before the manned mission. No other way to carry enough supplies. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2021, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/77 "2021-02-16T17:38:40Z")
We will never go to Mars. Whatever humans can do, robots can do far easier and cheaper. I don’t see the radiation issue being resolved and to land humans on Mars and lift off and return is a whole lot more difficult than doing so on the moon. Humans will return to the moon, I expect in this decade. Again, there is nothing humans could do that robots couldn’t do better. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2021, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/78 "2021-02-16T19:37:53Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Humans will return to the moon, I expect in this decade. Again, there is nothing humans could do that robots couldn’t do better. Humans can go to the moon better than robots, though? There’s no point in going to the moon if it isn’t to build infrastructure to go further. Even bragging rights is off the table at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2021, 10:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/79 "2021-02-17T10:39:38Z")
Yeah, making a human boot print in the soil is something humans can do better, and sometimes that matters more (to those in charge of the decisions and budgets) than simple logic, economics or practicality might lead you to believe. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2021, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/80 "2021-02-17T17:54:54Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > We will never go to Mars… History is full of flat, certain, eventually-proven-wrong declarations of what humanity will never do. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2021, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196/81 "2021-02-20T09:21:13Z")
I will never go to Mars. They won’t let me. And the reasons for that are not even completely wrong, I can’t blame them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/in-your-honest-opinion-how-close-or-far-are-we-from-a-manned-mission-to-mars/831196.md?page=5)