# Incoming ICBM, what do you see? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [October 21, 2011, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378 "2011-10-21T18:19:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Atomic\_Alex](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atomic_alex/32/175_2.png) [@Atomic\_Alex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atomic_Alex)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/1 "2011-10-21T18:19:42Z")
Just finished reading this thread: > **[WWIII: Why fire pre-emptively?](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=627588)** > > Reading this column on WWIII potentially being started by a flock of geese made me think about an implicit assumption often made in these scenarios. Basically the reasoning seems to be, that if we had reasonable confidence a nuke was heading our... And I recalled a rather morbid question I’ve wondered about. The scenario: The enemy has launched a nuclear attack on your homeland using ICBM’s and you’ve become aware of that fact. On the premise that you’d rather not survive the aftermath anyway _(not something I agree with)_ you decide to stand outside and watch the incoming warhead. My question is, what would you actually see in that scenario? Assume there’s no cloud cover. Would the reentry vehicle be large enough to see with the naked eye? Would it be leaving a trail across the sky having been heated coming down through the atmosphere? How fast would it appear to be moving? How long would you have from first noticing it until detonation? _(assuming its coming in your general direction and is going to land nearby with a groundburst?)_ I’m guessing that at night the heat-trail would be easily visible, how about during the daytime? I’ve done a youtube search for footage of reentry vehicles but haven’t found anything but extremely blurred and unclear footage, guess its probably still classified. ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/2 "2011-10-21T18:29:14Z")
> [@Disposable Hero](#): > > Just finished reading this thread: > [WWIII: Why fire pre-emptively? - Cecil's Columns/Staff Reports - Straight Dope Message Board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=627588) > > And I recalled a rather morbid question I’ve wondered about. > > The scenario: The enemy has launched a nuclear attack on your homeland using ICBM’s and you’ve become aware of that fact. On the premise that you’d rather not survive the aftermath anyway _(not something I agree with)_ you decide to stand outside and watch the incoming warhead. > > My question is, what would you actually see in that scenario? Assume there’s no cloud cover. Would the reentry vehicle be large enough to see with the naked eye? Would it be leaving a trail across the sky having been heated coming down through the atmosphere? How fast would it appear to be moving? How long would you have from first noticing it until detonation? _(assuming its coming in your general direction and is going to land nearby with a groundburst?)_ > > I’m guessing that at night the heat-trail would be easily visible, how about during the daytime? > > I’ve done a youtube search for footage of reentry vehicles but haven’t found anything but extremely blurred and unclear footage, guess its probably still classified. The projectiles come in considerably faster than bullets. During WWII, the general consensus among Londoners seems to have been that the only warning they got of a V-2 strike was the terminal explosion, unlike the V-1 “buzz-bombs.” Since modern ICBMs are much more sophisticated than the V-2, and typically only a smaller reentry vehicle carrying the warhead reaches the target (as opposed to the whole body of the rocket as was the case with the V-2), I’d be _shocked_ if unaided human senses could perceive anything at all before the big boom. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/3 "2011-10-21T18:29:20Z")
I saw a photo of some MIRVs heading toward an island target some years ago. I really wish I could find it again. The surprising thing was how shallow the angle was - they were basically coming in just over the horizon, and they were leaving a quite visible smoke trail. ---
**Author:** ![Absolute](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b2d939/32.png) [@Absolute](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Absolute)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/4 "2011-10-21T18:39:23Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > I saw a photo of some MIRVs heading toward an island target some years ago. I really wish I could find it again. The surprising thing was how shallow the angle was - they were basically coming in just over the horizon, and they were leaving a quite visible smoke trail. > **[File:Peacekeeper-missile-testing.jpg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Peacekeeper-missile-testing.jpg)** > > http://www.smdc.army.mil/SMDCPhoto\_Gallery/Missiles/Missiles.html > David James Paquin (attributed) > > العربية ∙ বাংলা ∙ català ∙ čeština ∙ Deutsch ∙ English ∙ español ∙ eesti ∙ فارسی ∙ suomi ∙ français ∙ hrvatski ∙ magyar ∙ Bahasa Indonesia ∙ italiano ∙ 日本語 ∙ 한국어 ∙ lietuvių ∙ македонски ∙ മലയാളം ∙ မြန်မာဘာသာ ∙ Nederlands ∙ polski ∙ português ∙ русский ∙ sicilianu ∙ српски / srpski ∙ svenska ∙ Türkçe ∙ українська ∙ Tiếng Việt ∙ 中文 ∙ 中文（简体） ∙ 中文（繁體） ∙ 中文（臺灣） ∙ +/− It is a long-exposure photograph, so those are not actually smoke trails. Eery nonetheless. ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/5 "2011-10-21T18:40:35Z")
It’s definately going to be moving much faster than sound. You have to know beforehand which direction to look. I don’t think it will look very big, especially if it’s just one MIRV package. (The photo on wikipedia for “MIRV” shows an object approximately five feet in length.) [File:W87 MIRV.jpg - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:W87_MIRV.jpg) Here’s a long exposure photo on that same article of MIRV warheads angling in to target: [File:Peacekeeper-missile-testing.jpg - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Peacekeeper-missile-testing.jpg) I can’t tell what exactly made the lines in that photo: Rocket heat trail, re-entry heat trail, or something else. Looks like night time. I think by the time you saw it, and recognised it as what you were looking for, you’ll have time to go “Awww crap”, and not much more. Edit: Dupe wikipedia photo cite. Curse my hunt and peck typing style. ---
**Author:** ![Fish\_Cheer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fish_cheer/32/17179_2.png) [@Fish\_Cheer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish_Cheer)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/6 "2011-10-21T18:41:19Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > I saw a photo of some MIRVs heading toward an island target some years ago. I really wish I could find it again. The surprising thing was how shallow the angle was - they were basically coming in just over the horizon, and they were leaving a quite visible smoke trail. [This](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Peacekeeper-missile-testing.jpg) one? One of the most haunting pictures I’ve ever seen. ---
**Author:** ![Fish\_Cheer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fish_cheer/32/17179_2.png) [@Fish\_Cheer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish_Cheer)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/7 "2011-10-21T18:42:22Z")
Ninja’d not once, but twice. Oh well. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/8 "2011-10-21T19:02:56Z")
You may find the following [youtube footage](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8n59S8j2C0) interesting. Supposedly, it’s very very grainy footage of dummy Minuteman III RVs coming in and impacting somewhere at the Kwajalein Test Range. Another [thread at military photos.net](http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?165583-Nuclear-Missiles-incomming/page3) shows pictures from other reentry tests. I’ve witnessed the Space Shuttle re-entering and while it is a good deal larger than any ICBM RV, it looked like for all the world like a glowing jet airplane contrail. (The re-entry was at night, over Austin Texas). The motion was perceptible and quick, not bolt of lightning quick, but maybe 5-10 degrees of sky per second? Of course, it wasn’t dropping right on top of our heads… A longer (8 minute or so video) of a Minuteman III sortie with a dummy RV may be found [here](http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=aa1_1214613351). The RV impacts occur at about 5:50 or so on the video. The soundtrack is as delightfully cheesy as you’d expect from DoD productions. I think it’d look like the last 5 minutes of Miracle Mile, on top of the skyscraper, but with a much brighter glow to the trails, and much faster. The impacts in the liveleak video are “blink and you missed them” fast. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/9 "2011-10-21T19:24:52Z")
> [@Fish\_Cheer](#): > > [This](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Peacekeeper-missile-testing.jpg) one? One of the most haunting pictures I’ve ever seen. No. I couldn’t find it on Google Image search. It was a daytime photo, taken from maybe 10 miles away, and it showed a group of MIRVs just about to impact an island. They were coming in at a very shallow angle, and leaving a very visible trail. ---
**Author:** ![Atomic\_Alex](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atomic_alex/32/175_2.png) [@Atomic\_Alex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atomic_Alex)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/10 "2011-10-21T20:19:46Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > A longer (8 minute or so video) of a Minuteman III sortie with a dummy RV may be found [here](http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=aa1_1214613351). The RV impacts occur at about 5:50 or so on the video. Even though I was expecting it that still made me flinch! Makes me recall the end scene in a book I read a long time ago, Arclight by Eric L. Harry At the climax a strategic nuclear attack has been launched at American cities but the warheads are disarmed before impact (can’t recall how) the President and his wife watch one come in to Washington not knowing if the warhead is armed or not…wonder how big a hole even an inert warhead would cause hitting at that speed? Thanks for the answers everyone! ---
**Author:** ![Fish\_Cheer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fish_cheer/32/17179_2.png) [@Fish\_Cheer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish_Cheer)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/11 "2011-10-21T21:04:57Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > No. > I couldn’t find it on Google Image search. > It was a daytime photo, taken from maybe 10 miles away, and it showed a group of MIRVs just about to impact an island. They were coming in at a very shallow angle, and leaving a very visible trail. I’m fairly sure that none of these pictures actually is the one you’re looking for, but they’re too good to pass up on. [1](http://www.brookings.edu/projects/archive/nucweapons/reentry.aspx) [2](http://www.usafnukes.com/images/RV%20Reentry%201.jpg) [3](http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/icbm/MinuteManIII-kmr.jpg) [4](http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/icbm/lgm118_6.jpg) [5](http://www.smdc.army.mil/SMDCPhoto_Gallery/Missiles/101-PecekeprRVsOverUSAKA.jpg) [6](http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/icbm/lgm118_5.jpg) ICBMs are the ultimate nightmare fuel. I hope we survive this. ---
**Author:** ![what\_do\_I\_type\_here](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a5b964/32.png) [@what\_do\_I\_type\_here](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/what_do_I_type_here)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/12 "2011-10-21T21:08:31Z")
So what’s the velocity of a typical incoming MIRV? ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/13 "2011-10-21T21:19:13Z")
During The First Gulf War we could see the incoming Scuds, and, since I was spitting distance from a battery, the outgoing Patriots. ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/14 "2011-10-21T21:28:45Z")
> [@what\_do\_I\_type\_here](#): > > So what’s the velocity of a typical incoming MIRV? The third video link in post #8 was made by the DoD. The narrator quotes a figure of some 16,000 km/hr. (If I heard it correctly… ☹ ) ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/15 "2011-10-21T21:50:56Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > The third video link in post #8 was made by the DoD. The narrator quotes a figure of some 16,000 km/hr. (If I heard it correctly… ☹ ) 16000 kph = 9940 mph = 14578 ft/sec. Wikipedia says that the Barrett M98B sniper rifle ( .338 Lapua Magnum) has a muzzle velocity of 3100 ft/sec, and a 120mm gun on the M1A1 Abrams main battle tank may have a muzzle velocity of 5700 ft/sec (depending on the ammo used). Wiki lists the max speed of the F-18 Hornet (C/D) as 1190 mph. “Faster than a speeding bullet” is literally true. ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/16 "2011-10-21T22:07:14Z")
Beyond the atmosphere, to go halfway around the world, a MIRV might have close to orbital speed (around 18,000mph). nce it starts to hit the atmosphere, it slows dramatically. Terminal velocity goes down as the air gets thicker. The photo of fragments of the shuttle re-entry breakup would be a good example of what you’d see overhead. Note the renetry may be sharper than the shuttle angle, as the shuttle did actually glide for a while once the atmosphere got thick enough… but yeah, an ICBM would probably be barely visible over the horizon as it came in. the Londoners I read once called the V2 the “flying gas main”, as it gave no warning other than the impact explosion. This after several explosions in a row were attributed to just “exploding gas mains” ---
**Author:** ![SeaCanary](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@SeaCanary](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SeaCanary)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2011, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/17 "2011-10-21T22:08:08Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > A longer (8 minute or so video) of a Minuteman III sortie with a dummy RV may be found [here](http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=aa1_1214613351). The RV impacts occur at about 5:50 or so on the video. The soundtrack is as delightfully cheesy as you’d expect from DoD productions. I found the cheesiness made the video downright creepy and I don’t use that word very often. ---
**Author:** ![Atomic\_Alex](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atomic_alex/32/175_2.png) [@Atomic\_Alex](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atomic_Alex)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2011, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/18 "2011-10-22T20:53:04Z")
> [@md2000](#): > > the Londoners I read once called the V2 the “flying gas main”, as it gave no warning other than the impact explosion. This after several explosions in a row were attributed to just “exploding gas mains” I recall reading that part of the problem was the V2 came in vertically or almost vertically and most people don’t really look up? I’m kicking myself because this is yet another thread that could have used the byline _Need answer fast!!!_ to the title… 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Fish\_Cheer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fish_cheer/32/17179_2.png) [@Fish\_Cheer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fish_Cheer)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2011, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/19 "2011-10-22T21:01:42Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > It was a daytime photo, taken from maybe 10 miles away, and it showed a group of MIRVs just about to impact an island. They were coming in at a very shallow angle, and leaving a very visible trail. Like [this?](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FfkgwPNm3uA/SN99FdYvEJI/AAAAAAAAB2E/X0jpx54-zbM/s400/Minutemans_MIRV.JPG) ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2011, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378/20 "2011-10-22T21:39:25Z")
> [@Fish\_Cheer](#): > > Like [this?](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FfkgwPNm3uA/SN99FdYvEJI/AAAAAAAAB2E/X0jpx54-zbM/s400/Minutemans_MIRV.JPG) I don’t think that’s the one, but it’s been a long time. I just remember being really struck by how shallow the angle of the trails was - about 1/3 of the angle in that photo. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/incoming-icbm-what-do-you-see/600378.md?page=2)