# India and Pakistan: tensions escalating **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [February 26, 2019, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262 "2019-02-26T23:22:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/21 "2019-02-28T00:29:28Z")
Air-to-air combat between modern jet fighters only happens a few times per decade these days. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/22 "2019-02-28T00:46:20Z")
[Statement](https://pk.usembassy.gov/statement-by-secretary-pompeo-concern-regarding-india-pakistan-tensions/) from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on the crisis. FTL: > [@](#): > > I expressed to both Ministers that we encourage India and Pakistan to exercise restraint, and avoid escalation at any cost. I also encouraged both Ministers to prioritize direct communication and avoid further military activity. One thing that might be useful, if a version of it isn’t already being done, is to allow access to both India and Pakistan to a truncated version of the US’s robust missile early warning apparatus, in order to allay any fears of a bolt from the blue from an Agni V/Shaheen II. It won’t pick up a GLCM launch, probably, but it might reassure both sets of NCAs that an inbound decapitation/counterforce IRBM strike isn’t on the way. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/23 "2019-02-28T00:46:56Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > AK84, feel free to correct me on this, but wasn’t the IAF bombing raid on Balakot the first time the IAF has bombed targets on undisputed Pakistani soil since 1971? As opposed to airstrikes in POK or other disputed territory during, e.g., the Kargil War? That’s what caught my eye when I read about the raid a day ago. No one really knows what the target was. All the Indians have done is issued a statement a question less press conference. The best guess is that the IAF jets jettisoned their bombs and scarpered when confronted by CAP. Balakot is right over a ridge from Muzafferabad, the capital of Pakistani Kashmir, and the area the bombs fell is on the boundary and only a couple of minutes flying time from Indian controlled airspace anyway. I think the locations where the bombs fell is being made off more than it actually is worth. There don’t seem to be any targets there, while there were a hell of a lot in Muzafferabad and the Neelum valley. > [@](#): > > Also, it looks like the Indian Navy [may be sortieing](https://twitter.com/StanteaR_/status/1100888778091180034) one of their [carriers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Vikramaditya) north. (Not sure how you can’t see that a 45,000 ton CV isn’t there anymore, but whatever). Is an attempted Indian Navy blockade of Karachi in the near future? No idea. Except there will be no blockade, it’s been express Pakistani policy for two decades that a blockade or attempted blockade will result in a nuclear response. So, that would be that. > [@](#): > > Anyone have any idea what the goals of each side might be in continuing to escalate this dispute? Modi has pushed himself in a corner, what with elections due. He promised a hard line. He made a huge drama about “surgical strikes”, and riled up his populace. Who now seem to expect movie quality “operations”. He promised military actions at no cost and now faces potential ire when reality ensues and he cannot deliver. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/24 "2019-02-28T00:49:26Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > [Statement](https://pk.usembassy.gov/statement-by-secretary-pompeo-concern-regarding-india-pakistan-tensions/) from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on the crisis. FTL: > > One thing that might be useful, if a version of it isn’t already being done, is to allow access to both India and Pakistan to a truncated version of the US’s robust missile early warning apparatus, in order to allay any fears of a bolt from the blue from an Agni V/Shaheen II. It won’t pick up a GLCM launch, probably, but it might reassure both sets of NCAs that an inbound decapitation/counterforce IRBM strike isn’t on the way. There are already early warning systems in place and both sides are working on space based sensors. Pompeos statement came before the PAF strike and in any case is though to have convinced Imran Khan of the necessity of carrying it out, so not exactly helpful. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/25 "2019-02-28T01:04:12Z")
Pakistan seems to have a very short trigger for use of nuclear weapons, at least shorter than any other nuclear power. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/26 "2019-02-28T02:03:15Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Pakistan seems to have a very short trigger for use of nuclear weapons, at least shorter than any other nuclear power. Don’t follow… ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/27 "2019-02-28T02:21:34Z")
> [@bump](#): > > MIG-21s? In the 21st century? That’s on par with charging tanks with cavalry, isn’t it? I heard reports that they were scrambled on an intercept and then ran into the Pak CAP , no surprise that the F-16’s ate them alive. Me thinks that when this all blows over, the IAF is gonna have some splaining to do if they have a poor showing. ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/28 "2019-02-28T02:48:16Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Don’t follow… Geography. Pakistan is long and skinny (N-S) and there is very little flight time for a missile. And thanks for contributing to the Dope on many issues. Your perspective is invaluable to all of us. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/29 "2019-02-28T02:49:21Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Don’t follow… Well, your post earlier said they’d use nukes in response to a naval blockade. Elsewhere I’ve read that "… [Pakistan has refused to declare a no-first-use policy; the country retains the option of using nuclear weapons first in the event of a war.](https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/30/pakistan-s-nuclear-use-doctrine-pub-63913) " Do you know of another nuclear power that has the “express policy that an attempted blockade will result in a nuclear response”? I’m not aware of any others that set the threshold that low. ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/30 "2019-02-28T02:52:55Z")
> [@Declan](#): > > I heard reports that they were scrambled on an intercept and then ran into the Pak CAP , no surprise that the F-16’s ate them alive. Me thinks that when this all blows over, the IAF is gonna have some splaining to do if they have a poor showing. From what I have read India is infamous for a terrible military bureaucracy. It will take a decade to issue a single procurement contract. Even the Russians are unhappy. Of course India is unhappy with the quality and capabilities of Russia so there is that. And on top of that they are trying to build up a domestic A/C manufacturing capability. So the IAF suffers from an inability to purchase foreign a/c and the local capability is far short of supplying their needs. ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/31 "2019-02-28T03:28:05Z")
> [@rbroome](#): > > From what I have read India is infamous for a terrible military bureaucracy. It will take a decade to issue a single procurement contract. Even the Russians are unhappy. Of course India is unhappy with the quality and capabilities of Russia so there is that. And on top of that they are trying to build up a domestic A/C manufacturing capability. So the IAF suffers from an inability to purchase foreign a/c and the local capability is far short of supplying their needs. Yeah one hears about their procurement woes with the moving goal posts, but on the operational side why would you fly a bunch of strikers into the area with no top cover. Perhaps there is information that we are not getting yet, perhaps they did have top cover that got sucked away, and the strikers aborted before getting bounced. No information regarding if they even had Awac’s support or why they did not bring a kick the door down package with Sukois and start it off with a brawl. Maybe their command staff is not adjusted to this level of conflict, if they sent in penny packet strikes. Or they know what they are doing, and they are suckering in Pak for a decapitation. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/32 "2019-02-28T04:56:10Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Well, your post earlier said they’d use nukes in response to a naval blockade. Elsewhere I’ve read that "… [Pakistan has refused to declare a no-first-use policy; the country retains the option of using nuclear weapons first in the event of a war.](https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/30/pakistan-s-nuclear-use-doctrine-pub-63913) " The United States has never declared a no first use policy either. Neither has the UK, France or Russia. > [@](#): > > Do you know of another nuclear power that has the “express policy that an attempted blockade will result in a nuclear response”? I’m not aware of any others that set the threshold that low. Do you know the tactical situation there enough to know a blockade is a low threshold? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/33 "2019-02-28T05:42:19Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The United States has never declared a no first use policy either. Neither has the UK, France or Russia. > Do you know the tactical situation there enough to know a blockade is a low threshold? As I already said, it’s a lower threshold than any other nuclear power I’m aware of (the “express policy” regarding attempted blockades). ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 6:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/34 "2019-02-28T06:26:17Z")
> [@rbroome](#): > > From what I have read India is infamous for a terrible military bureaucracy. It will take a decade to issue a single procurement contract. Even the Russians are unhappy. Of course India is unhappy with the quality and capabilities of Russia so there is that. And on top of that they are trying to build up a domestic A/C manufacturing capability. So the IAF suffers from an inability to purchase foreign a/c and the local capability is far short of supplying their needs. I would guess that India has air conditioning manufacturing capacity right at home. It’s such a hot country; not sure how many could afford it but, I’m sure A/C is available. But what does that have to do with this military conflict? ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/35 "2019-02-28T06:34:35Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > I would guess that India has air conditioning manufacturing capacity right at home. It’s such a hot country; not sure how many could afford it but, I’m sure A/C is available. > > But what does that have to do with this military conflict? Just in case I’m not being whooshed… I’m pretty sure he means aircraft. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/36 "2019-02-28T06:59:09Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > As I already said, it’s a lower threshold than any other nuclear power I’m aware of (the “express policy” regarding attempted blockades). If a foreign power had the ability to blockade the United States, how do you think the US would feel about that? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/37 "2019-02-28T08:26:02Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > If a foreign power had the ability to blockade the United States, how do you think the US would feel about that? Probably unhappy, but not “nuke 'em” levels of unhappiness. Our own ambiguity about the matter is significant enough that I perceive our nuclear use threshold to be a good bit higher than Pakistan’s apparent certainty on the matter (“attempted blockade will result in a nuclear response.”) ---
**Author:** ![yendis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ed8c4c/32.png) [@yendis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yendis)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/38 "2019-02-28T13:27:13Z")
> [@Declan](#): > > Yeah one hears about their procurement woes with the moving goal posts, but on the operational side why would you fly a bunch of strikers into the area with no top cover. Perhaps there is information that we are not getting yet, perhaps they did have top cover that got sucked away, and the strikers aborted before getting bounced. No information regarding if they even had Awac’s support or why they did not bring a kick the door down package with Sukois and start it off with a brawl. I think they underestimated the potential for a Pakistani response. So they half arsed it and got caught short. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/39 "2019-02-28T16:59:39Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Probably unhappy, but not “nuke 'em” levels of unhappiness. Our own ambiguity about the matter is significant enough that I perceive our nuclear use threshold to be a good bit higher than Pakistan’s apparent certainty on the matter (“attempted blockade will result in a nuclear response.”) One single port, Karachi, handles about 60% of the nation’s cargo. Another, Qasim, handles about another 30%. It is not at all shocking, or a low threshold, for Pakistan to consider a blockade as stepping on their throat. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/40 "2019-02-28T17:53:36Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > One single port, Karachi, handles about 60% of the nation’s cargo. Another, Qasim, handles about another 30%. It is not at all shocking, or a low threshold, for Pakistan to consider a blockade as stepping on their throat. Yeah, I think that a blockade actually rises to an existential threat when we are talking about Pakistan. I can’t imagine China would be keen on such a blockade either, or would just stand back and do nothing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262.md?page=3)