# India and Pakistan: tensions escalating **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [February 26, 2019, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262 "2019-02-26T23:22:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/41 "2019-02-28T17:57:33Z")
I wrote up a big post with cites and such about how important shipping is to Pakistan last night, but my phone swallowed it when I switched tabs to copy a cite one too many times and accidentally refreshed the SDMB page. So let me just say – what XT and CarnalK said. I don’t defend Pakistani policy because I’m a huge fan of that country, but because it’s unfair to criticize your opponents when they’re not even in the wrong. There’s plenty to dislike about Pakistani policy, but a blockade would be an existential threat for them. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/42 "2019-02-28T18:01:52Z")
Getting blockaded = Pakistan’s economy suffering, a lot of trade grinds to a halt, but Pakistan still shares land borders with other nations (unlike, say, an island being blockaded) Whereas nuking India and getting nuked in return would be far more catastrophic. It would be greatly foolish for Pakistan to go nuclear over a mere blockade. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/43 "2019-02-28T18:07:42Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Getting blockaded = Pakistan’s economy suffering, a lot of trade grinds to a halt, but Pakistan still shares land borders with other nations (unlike, say, an island being blockaded) > > Whereas nuking India and getting nuked in return would be far more catastrophic. It would be greatly foolish for Pakistan to go nuclear over a mere blockade. Pakistan has 3 land borders. Iran, India and Afghanistan. When 95% of all their trade gets shut down (ie their “economy suffering” :rolleyes: ) which land routes do you think will pick up the slack? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/44 "2019-02-28T19:02:57Z")
BTW, there’s been some dispute about whether the Pakistanis used AMRAAMs (and thus F-16s) in their intercept of the IAF MiG-21('s? - it’s unclear to me if one or two Indian MiGs were shot down). The Indians [showed off pieces of an AIM-120C](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/iaf-shows-parts-of-amraam-missile-says-evidence-proves-mig-21-shot-down-pakistans-f-16/articleshow/68205140.cms), which they claim they recovered after the aerial battle. [The Pakistanis have claimed that no F-16s were involved in the operation](https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/trends/pakistan-says-no-f-16-aircraft-used-dismisses-report-of-their-fighter-jet-crashing/story/322823.html). Further, [some on the Pakistani side claimed that the AMRAAMs markings indicate it had been sold to Taiwan, not Pakistan](https://twitter.com/DefencedotPak/status/1101127096649293831). Now it seems pretty clear that that is not correct, as there is a [public record of a 2006 contract modification selling 500 AMRAAMs to Pakistan, with that contract number (FA8675-05-C-0070/P00028)](http://archive.defense.gov/Contracts/Contract.aspx?ContractID=3384). This is relevant because apparently there were strict conditions for the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, restricting their use in cross-border incursions with India, conditions which Pakistan appears to have violated. Also, India is apparently still claiming to have shot down a Pakistani F-16. If true, it would be a rather severe blow to the F-16’s air-to-air record (the only acknowledged air-to-air kill of an F-16 was by a Greek Mirage 2000 in 1996). Pakistan has denied this. ETA: Both sides seem to be spinning every detail furiously. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/45 "2019-02-28T19:08:53Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Pakistan has 3 land borders. Iran, India and Afghanistan. When 95% of all their trade gets shut down (ie their “economy suffering” :rolleyes: ) which land routes do you think will pick up the slack? This. By the way, the vulnerability to blockade applies to India, too – their largest cities rely on food shipments through their ports to keep people from starving. Of course, India has the superior navy, to prevent that exact scenario. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/46 "2019-02-28T19:30:04Z")
There have been multiple air engagements over several days, not just one which led to the shoot down. There have been several releases of ordnance. The denial about an F-16 being used was for the shoot download not a general denial of F-16 being used at all, which would be weird since there are multiple pictures and videos released by the Pakistan Government showing F-16 in ops. All that AMRAAM debris proves is that an AMRAAM was fired sometime between this evening and 2007. Proves nothing about am F-16 loss one way or the other. If it had been shot down, I think i5 would have been admitted, these things are impossible to hide and PAF has never done so in the past.(In the last 10 years a 3 and an AEW A/C were lost, and that was admitted, and each are a lot more valuable than a single F16) The claim that their were “strict conditions” against use against India is laughable. Again there have been several intercepts over the years by F-16s of Indian A/C and the three wings of F-16 in the PAF are all deployed at bases- PAF Bholari, PAF Jacobabad and PAF Sargodha, which all on the India front, F-16 are notably not employed at PAF Samugali or PAF Peshawar or PAF Mianwlai which are either for Western border or for both fronts. F-16 have been used less in the recent ops than JF17, since the later have an in flight refuelling capability. ETA: In response to HurricaneDitka ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2019, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/47 "2019-02-28T21:41:56Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > BTW, there’s been some dispute about whether the Pakistanis used AMRAAMs (and thus F-16s) in their intercept of the IAF MiG-21('s? - it’s unclear to me if one or two Indian MiGs were shot down). > > This is relevant because apparently there were strict conditions for the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, restricting their use in cross-border incursions with India, conditions which Pakistan appears to have violated. > > Also, India is apparently still claiming to have shot down a Pakistani F-16. If true, it would be a rather severe blow to the F-16’s air-to-air record (the only acknowledged air-to-air kill of an F-16 was by a Greek Mirage 2000 in 1996). Pakistan has denied this. > > ETA: Both sides seem to be spinning every detail furiously. Regarding the migs, it has been posted that the mig 21’s were baited and got sucked into Pak airspace and that would make it self defense for using the F-16. The incursion into Indian airspace that prompted it, were those chinese knock offs. Not sure what the rules are if PakAF does a BVR shot from inside their airspace and takes out a target on the Indian side. The actual wreckage that they are showing from what i have seen, has been internet identified as the housing for the mig 21 jet engine. So time will tell, for fessing up. ---
**Author:** ![Philster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/13edae/32.png) [@Philster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Philster)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/48 "2019-03-01T14:52:42Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > :dubious: > **Giggles** > While reading up on the weapons, you should also find out about the politcis. Already the Indian Government is under attack by its opposition, after the Pakistani PM (after the shootdown of IAF planes), [called for restraint again](https://www.dawn.com/news/1466364). > Going to war requires much more political will. > :rolleyes: Oh, yeah… I’m starting from zero. You realize something can exist then escalate above the norm under the political tag of ‘‘restraint’’ ?? – wherein restraint being called for supports my argument and hints at your ignorance of reality. The ‘equipment’ comment is important, because purchases by either country of US or Russian built planes and weapons can change things in just months. Few follow this day-to-day over decades. Nonetheless, things exist and then get worse, and implying they will get worse doesn’t imply they don’t already exist. SDMB mindset sucks. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2019, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/49 "2019-03-01T15:18:32Z")
SDMB mindset? You don’t think him being a Pakistan resident forms his opinion a little more than his message board preference? ---
**Author:** ![Philster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/13edae/32.png) [@Philster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Philster)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2019, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/50 "2019-03-02T13:23:05Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > SDMB mindset? You don’t think him being a Pakistan resident forms his opinion a little more than his message board preference? Unfortunately, his value as a resident of Pakistan (to me as a Doper) is diminished significantly by SDMB culture, which he demonstrated quite clearly. . ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2019, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/51 "2019-03-02T22:52:07Z")
So much for Pakistan handing over the pilot leading to reduced tensions; it looks like both sides are back to artillery shellling each other again now. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2019, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/52 "2019-03-02T23:32:46Z")
[The source is Indian](http://www.ptinews.com/news/10419795_US-seeks-information-on-potential-misuse-of-F-16-by-Pakistan), so probably take it with a grain of salt, but it did offer some (alleged) details about the US agreement with Pakistan over the sale of F-16s: > [@](#): > > The US is seeking more information on the potential misuse of American-made F-16 fighter jets by Pakistan against India in violation of the end-user agreement, the State Department has said > > … > > Publicly available documents reveal that US has imposed nearly a dozen restriction on Pakistan related to its use of F-16 > > During a Congressional hearing on July 20, 2006, John Miller the then Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs, had told lawmakers that the United States has “very carefully considered” the potential risks of the diversion of US technology and equipment." > > While the exact details of the restrictions were discussed in a closed-door session, and thus remains classified, Miller then broadly outlined some of the restrictions, which he said were over a “dozen new and unprecedented elements” of the security plan for Pakistan > > Miller then told lawmakers that the security provisions also include **semi-annual inventories of all F-16 aircraft equipment and munitions** , including related technical data, and more frequent inventories for other systems > > “There is a two-man rule, so to speak, for access to this equipment and restricted areas, and F-16 flights outside of Pakistan or participation in exercises and operations with third nations must be approved in advance by the United States government,” the then top State Department official said, according to the transcripts of the hearing. If that bit is true, it’s going to be awkward for Pakistan if AIM-120C-5 serial number CC12947 was there for the last inventory and not there for the next one. Even more awkward if they’re short an F-16. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2019, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/53 "2019-03-03T03:13:31Z")
> [@Philster](#): > > Unfortunately, his value as a resident of Pakistan (to me as a Doper) is diminished significantly by SDMB culture, which he demonstrated quite clearly. What specifically is there about this “culture” which diminishes his value and how do you avoid this “culture” which makes your opinion more valuable? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2019, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/54 "2019-08-06T17:46:31Z")
The tensions have escalated a great deal more recently. > [@](#): > > India is set to withdraw the special status of the disputed territory of Kashmir and split the state in two, in a move likely to face major resistance in the Muslim-majority state and escalate tensions with Pakistan. > > The proposal, which has been advocated by Hindu nationalists for decades, is the most radical change any government has suggested for Kashmir’s status since the region was granted autonomy in exchange for joining the Indian union after independence in 1947. > **[India set to withdraw Kashmir's special status and split it in two](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/05/india-revoke-disputed-kashmir-special-status)** > > Move to split disputed state follows security crackdown and detention of politicians Naturally there has been a response from Pakistan: > [@](#): > > Pakistan has vowed it will take any measure necessary to “stand by” people in Kashmir, where an unprecedented communications blackout continues a day after the Indian government said it would revoke the territory’s special status and divide it in two. > > Landline connections, internet and mobile coverage in the territory were all suspended on Tuesday, while prominent political leaders who oppose the Indian government’s move were reportedly arrested… > > The announcement prompted anger from Pakistan, which also claims Kashmir and has fought two wars with India over the territory. “Pakistan army firmly stands by the Kashmiris in their just struggle to the very end,” the country’s army chief, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, said. “We are prepared and shall go to any extent to fulfil our obligations in this regard.” > **[Kashmir: Pakistan will 'go to any extent' to protect Kashmiris](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/06/india-kashmir-pakistan-will-go-to-any-extent-to-protect-kashmiris-special-status)** > > Pledge follows announcement by India that it intends to revoke territory’s special status Is there going to be another war between India and Pakistan? ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2019, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/55 "2019-08-06T17:55:36Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > The tensions have escalated a great deal more recently. > > [India set to withdraw Kashmir's special status and split it in two | Kashmir | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/05/india-revoke-disputed-kashmir-special-status) > > Naturally there has been a response from Pakistan: > > [Kashmir: Pakistan will 'go to any extent' to protect Kashmiris | Kashmir | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/06/india-kashmir-pakistan-will-go-to-any-extent-to-protect-kashmiris-special-status) > > Is there going to be another war between India and Pakistan? Sure hope not. Neither of them seems reluctant to go nuclear. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2019, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/56 "2019-08-06T18:25:39Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Is there going to be another war between India and Pakistan? There are two answers to that. Short one is _no_, the other is _fuck no._. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2019, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/57 "2019-08-06T19:05:17Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > There are two answers to that. Short one is _no_, the other is _fuck no._. I’m very glad, but from where comes your confidence? ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2019, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/58 "2019-08-06T19:07:28Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > There are two answers to that. Short one is _no_, the other is _fuck no._. I appreciate the positive comment. And I certainly value your knowledge of the area. Both countries have a lot on their plates right now and a war, even a brief one, would go very badly for both sides. ---
**Author:** ![mandala](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mandala/32/95_2.png) [@mandala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mandala)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2019, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/59 "2019-08-07T02:21:35Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > The tensions have escalated a great deal more recently. > > [India set to withdraw Kashmir's special status and split it in two | Kashmir | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/05/india-revoke-disputed-kashmir-special-status) > > Naturally there has been a response from Pakistan: > > [Kashmir: Pakistan will 'go to any extent' to protect Kashmiris | Kashmir | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/06/india-kashmir-pakistan-will-go-to-any-extent-to-protect-kashmiris-special-status) > > Is there going to be another war between India and Pakistan? Nope. But as Pakistan PM Imran Khan and his Army chief openly suggested, there will be an escalation in terrorist attacks on India, both within Kashmir and elsewhere in India, carried out of terror groups cultivated and controlled by the Pakistani state. This will draw retaliation from India. Matters could escalate, but an all-out war is very unlikely, much less a nuclear one. BTW, the decision to revoke the special status for Kashmir is one of the most momentous positive steps taken in regards to Kashmir in the past 70 years. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2019, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262/60 "2019-08-07T02:27:55Z")
������ Positive step… if your aim is to cause much more internal instability within the Indian Union. Make even pro India Kashmiri politicians turn against the center. Cause other secessionist insurgent elswhere to redouble their efforts towards militancy rather than dialogue Yeah, if that was the aim, it was the best step ever. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-and-pakistan-tensions-escalating/830262.md?page=4)