# India on pace to be worst-hit Covid nation by end of 2021 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [July 17, 2020, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586 "2020-07-17T15:22:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/1 "2020-07-17T15:22:01Z")
NYT article (might be behind paywall): MIT researchers project that [by the end of next year, India will be the worst-hit nation in the world](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/world/asia/coronavirus-india-million-cases.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR2Y_hgwtwJ2B6z8w6lU9ooRBrH37dpKjLMU7k9ftj9XDi97mkln1KDCGjs), surpassing the USA and Brazil. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/2 "2020-07-17T15:33:03Z")
So much for American exceptionalism. ---
**Author:** ![raspberry\_hunter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b19c9b/32.png) [@raspberry\_hunter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raspberry_hunter)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/3 "2020-07-17T16:04:15Z")
By the end of 2021? Has anyone gotten anything right with this virus with projections past, say, a month out? ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/4 "2020-07-17T16:25:51Z")
I’m afraid India is going to be difficult to count, I can’t imagine that tracking cases and deaths is going to be accurate, especially when it really takes off and overwhelms the authorities. I would not be predicting India further than a couple of months at best, only prediction that could be made is as a worst case scenario or close to it. Perhaps that is the underlying message - because India’s medical infrastructure and administration may be unable to cope and data will no longer be accurate. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/5 "2020-07-17T16:25:55Z")
Idiot American politicians say “Challenge accepted!” ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/6 "2020-07-17T16:40:57Z")
[Actual paper for those interested](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635047). Key part of the abstract > However, future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission. Absent breakthroughs in treatment or vaccination and with mildly improved responses we project 249 (186-586) million cases and 1.75 (1.40-3.67) million deaths in the 84 countries by Spring 2021. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/7 "2020-07-17T21:11:40Z")
Anyone publishing projections for more than a year away should be mortally embarrassed as sensationalist hacks. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/8 "2020-07-17T21:24:50Z")
Not even a little bit. Write them up, place the error bars and assumptions in there and build a model. Iterate as you go. It’s better to say anyone relying on unchanging projections should be mortally embarrassed as a blinkered hack. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/9 "2020-07-17T21:28:37Z")
Oh bullshit. I don’t blame researchers for running these projections but they are utterly useless to the general population or decision makers. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/10 "2020-07-17T21:32:05Z")
Then I suppose a paper specifically listed on a platform for the dissemination of early-stage research meets your criteria. And yes feel free to yell at the NYT for mentioning it. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2020, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/11 "2020-07-17T21:36:34Z")
I just did, thanks. 😤 ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2020, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/12 "2020-07-19T21:00:28Z")
They have an ICU bed capacity of 2.3 per 100,000 compared to Italy which has 12.5 per 100,000. I used Italy as an example of a country that was hard hit. Given the infrastructure issues with power,water and sewage it would land hard. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2021, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/13 "2021-04-21T21:20:48Z")
Urgh just been watching a BBC report on the Covid situation in India and it’s heartbeaking - they are outside a hospital in Delhi, where the healthcare is probably as good as anywhere in the country, and the scene is can only be described as chaos. The report shows a woman dying in an ambulance as it ran out of oxygen, another man dies on a trolley in front of the camera in a room packed with dozens of other trolleys packed together with suffering patients, dozens of people stand outside the entrance shouting for doctors to help with loved ones that the hospital does not have space to admit. I haven’t got a link to that particular report but this article is recent: > **[Covid-19 in India: Why second coronavirus wave is devastating](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56811315)** > > A deadly second wave has overrun hospitals and even crematoriums in India. India reported over 315,000 new cases today. And no doubt they are many many more untested. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2021, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/14 "2021-04-21T22:26:02Z")
On a call with coworkers in Bangalore today they described the situation in great detail. It sounded pretty awful and didn’t look like it would be getting better anytime soon. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2021, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/15 "2021-04-21T23:26:48Z")
The abject poverty there probably will make things bad and their numbers are rising but on a per capita basis, daily cases are about the same as the US right now. Total cases, it’s not even close with the US close to ten times. > **[An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC](http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=India&show=highlight-only&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right&extra=United%20States#countries-normalized)** > > An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois. Updated daily. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2021, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/16 "2021-04-22T13:40:34Z")
> **[India's second Covid wave hits like a 'tsunami' as hospitals buckle under...](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/21/india/india-covid-hospital-shortage-intl-hnk/index.html)** > > Healthcare and other essential services across India are close to collapse as a second coronavirus wave that started in mid-March tears through the country with devastating speed. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2021, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/17 "2021-04-23T13:18:43Z")
And this: [Why Americans should be concerned by India's COVID tsunami [Video]](https://www.aol.com/indias-covid-tsunami-worst-world-140203413.html) ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2021, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/18 "2021-04-24T00:43:24Z")
Is there any international help on-hand or at least in the immediate future? I’m thinking especially of the oxygen issues because while it’s a rough situation overall, I think there are plenty of overseas institutions (various armed forces, various multinational firms) with the ability to jerry-rig (jury-rig?) emergency O2 supply systems in India. Getting the proper expert medical care and personnel will not be easy, in part because that involves scarce specialized labor and facilities. OTOH, do Indians really need to be suffocating because they lack access to something as basic as supplemental O2? ---
**Author:** ![Die\_Capacitrix](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/die_capacitrix/32/9_2.png) [@Die\_Capacitrix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Die_Capacitrix)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2021, 8:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/19 "2021-04-24T08:23:07Z")
When I talk to my coworker in Pune, who is working from home, I can hear the sirens from the ambulances going by his home. It is sometimes one after the other. And he’s not that close to the hospitals (there are 5 in his district). Another coworker is in the hospital, another has just left a quarantine center. Every person who lives there, or has lived there, knows multiple people who have died, is in the hospital or in a quarantine center. And it’s worse since the festivals in the last two weeks, and because of certain politicians who are ignoring the science (mentioned in the article linked above). Due to the vaccine shortages, they are not able to vaccinate people fast enough. > **[Covid vaccine: India becomes second country to cross two billion Covid jabs](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56345591)** > > The milestone comes amid a rise in coronavirus cases in many states. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2021, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586/20 "2021-04-24T16:53:32Z")
There is no logical reason for the shortage of oxygen. They’ve had ample time to import it. The state of Kerala demonstrated this by monitoring demand in it’s region and stockpiling it. There should have been a national effort to take care of this along with other shortages such as ventilators. It’s a nation more than capable of large scale production of products. India really dropped the ball on this. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-on-pace-to-be-worst-hit-covid-nation-by-end-of-2021/915586.md?page=2)