# India-Pakistan, and American self-interest **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 31, 2002, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751 "2002-05-31T16:38:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Milossarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Milossarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Milossarian)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2002, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/1 "2002-05-31T16:38:13Z")
As noted [here](http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0531/p01s04-wosc.html), Pakistan is pulling its troops from the border with Afghanistan, where they have been helping the U.S. look for Al Qaeda fighters, to beef up their eastern flank, in expectation of an imminent war with India. In addition to numerous other reasons why a conflict between the two nuclear nations would be disastrous for Asia and the world, there’s this other little matter: Al Qaeda and Taliban leadership are re-organizing within Pakistan, and are even getting to the point of offensive operations again, against the reconstituted Afghan government (and who knows when against more direct American interests). [As noted in the Washington Post.](http://www.msnbc.com/news/759109.asp) This leaves the USA in a sticky situation. American relations have certainly warmed with Musharraf since Sept. 11, but it’s always seemed to be with the proviso of “help us and it will benefit our relations and, therefore, your country’s well-being. But you damn well _better_ help us.” As it’s becoming more and more clear that further dismantling Al Qaeda involves direct operations in Pakistan, what does the U.S. do? It’s been quite reluctant to this point to overtly operate in hostile regions of Pakistan. And Pakistan is understandably a bit preoccupied these days. As a broker helping to facilitate a stand-down between India and Pakistan, America needs to avoid picking sides. But the fact remains, America _needs_ the Pakistani government’s support to be effective in eradicating the terrorist threat in that part of the world. Yes, there are a lot of speculative threats against the US and the West worldwide, which are no doubt real. Let’s not forget, however, that we **know** the threat Al Qaeda poses. So, now what? Does the U.S. idle away weeks and months, hoping things cool off between India and Pakistan? Does it take a more direct role in doing its work within Pakistan’s borders? The dangers of doing that during a full-blown war that doesn’t really involve the U.S. - a war that could at any time go nuclear - would seem self-evident. What a mess. ---
**Author:** ![Tranquilis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tranquilis/32/3639_2.png) [@Tranquilis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tranquilis)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2002, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/2 "2002-05-31T17:05:05Z")
Well, you’ll note that Rumsfeld is on his way to visit Pakistan and India. So, it looks like what we do is to quiety twist arms until everyone plays nice again. ---
**Author:** ![Milossarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Milossarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Milossarian)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2002, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/3 "2002-05-31T17:25:09Z")
I guess my point was, the U.S. certainly wants things to cool down between Pakistan and India. But regardless of when, how and whether that happens, the U.S. has a terrorist network it needs to knock out. That terrorist network seems to have set up shop in Pakistan. Musharraf, careful not to piss off too many of his citizens, probably doesn’t want a large-scale American military presence in his country. America, on the other hand, feels it is imperative to eradicate Al Qaeda, and to that end, will likely do whatever it feels is necessary to do so. It’s all about to get a lot more complicated. ---
**Author:** ![kesagiri](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/7ba0ec/32.png) [@kesagiri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kesagiri)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2002, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/4 "2002-06-01T03:54:47Z")
> [@](#): > > I guess my point was, the U.S. certainly wants things to cool down between Pakistan and India. But regardless of when, how and whether that happens, the U.S. has a terrorist network it needs to knock out. That terrorist network seems to have set up shop in Pakistan. No kidding. They might see a war with India as a benefit. The chaos would make it easier to hide, get more entrenched in Pakistan, etc. On the otherhand, with no central government moving in lots of U.S. troops would be a lot easier. However, there are the other Islamic countries that might object. If Daniel Pipes is right, many of the average people on the street see the U.S. in a very bad light. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2002, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/5 "2002-06-01T04:39:13Z")
It might be tough on the Afghan war effort, but it’s time to review Pakistan’s eligibility for waiver from sanctions under the Arms Export Control Act.  Imposition:         [http://www.mac.doc.gov/sanctions/faq3.htm](http://www.mac.doc.gov/sanctions/faq3.htm)  Current Status:  [http://www.mac.doc.gov/sanctions/faq.htm](http://www.mac.doc.gov/sanctions/faq.htm)  General ref:        [http://www.mac.doc.gov/sanctions/](http://www.mac.doc.gov/sanctions/) If Musharrif will not denounce a first use nuke policy, we need to pull all support for his regime. What’s the bigger issue here, bad guys with guns and planes, or bad guys with nukes ? ---
**Author:** ![Ottto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/e495f1/32.png) [@Ottto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ottto)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2002, 10:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/6 "2002-06-01T10:41:01Z")
In the long run, India is of more strategic importance to the US then is Pakistan. But in the short run, Pakistan is more important. Now granted, If India demolishes Pakistan (as is full well possible), that is a big plus in our (American) column. But if India attacks, and either is not very ambitious, or fails, then that will be a big minus in our column. From a purely political standpoint, I think that America wants the uneasy peace to continue until we get Bin Laden, or confirmation of his demise. Then, we can safely declare the terrorist threat in that little part of the world to be quelled (for the moment), and let them have at each other. [www.strategypage.com](http://www.strategypage.com) had an interesting point about the nuclear situation in South Asia: Most probably won’t work. It seems many of the tests that the 5 original nuclear powers performed were on the complex fusing mechanisms for nukes. Since neither side has had them long, or tested them much, there is a good chance many won’t work. Also, and probably more importantly, both nations have an utterly dismal record of home-producing high tech weapons. A number of “up to 50% failure” has been cited for their nuclear arsenal. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2002, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/7 "2002-06-01T15:16:19Z")
there is this quote today in Bloomberg: Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said a nuclear war between his country and India is all but unthinkable, Cable News Network reported, as foreign governments urged their citizens to leave the region. ---
**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2002, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/8 "2002-06-01T15:48:13Z")
> [@](#): > > A number of “up to 50% failure” has been cited for their nuclear arsenal. So for every two nukes set off, one won’t work? Whew, that’s a relief. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Tranquilis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tranquilis/32/3639_2.png) [@Tranquilis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tranquilis)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2002, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/9 "2002-06-01T17:21:41Z")
Never count on an aggressor’s weapon failling. Never count on the defense being 100% effective. Assume 100% effectiveness on the other guy’s part, and 60% effectiveness on your (or your allies’) part, and plan from that. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2002, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/10 "2002-06-01T17:50:55Z")
ww ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2002, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/11 "2002-06-01T18:04:17Z")
Oops, that went off by accident. China Guy: > [@](#): > > When asked if Pakistan has a ‘no first use policy’, Musharraf said, “Pakistan backs something much bigger than that.” > > “We’ve called for a no-war pact [with India], that there shouldn’t be any war,” he said. [http://www.rediff.com/news/2002/jun/01war6.htm](http://www.rediff.com/news/2002/jun/01war6.htm) This sounds like weaseling, and all the more so in light of [Pakistan’s continued refusal to disavow first use](http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/holnus/03012005.htm). (The above link is just the latest. Stories to similar effect have been popping up for weeks in less biased places) ---
**Author:** ![capacitor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e47774/32.png) [@capacitor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/capacitor)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2002, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/12 "2002-06-02T03:37:13Z")
Pakistan will have no choice but to nuke in case of a massive incursion into Eastern Pakistan by India. They don’t have the air force to counter such an incursion. So Pakistan would be foolhardy to make a ‘no nuke first’ pledge’. It would be code for “Invade us, we’ll like it.” India knows it too. That is why this war may be restricted to border skirmishes like we have right now. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2002, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/13 "2002-06-02T03:46:31Z")
Squink: I can’t think of a thread more fitting than this one for “that went off by accident.” ---
**Author:** ![Urban\_Ranger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/e9c0ed/32.png) [@Urban\_Ranger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urban_Ranger)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2002, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/14 "2002-06-03T07:45:12Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Squink \* > This sounds like weaseling, and all the more so in light of [Pakistan’s continued refusal to disavow first use](http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/holnus/03012005.htm). _Yawn_ The US has never excluded the use of nuclear weapons in any war, including the most recent one in Afganistan. ---
**Author:** ![Tranquilis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tranquilis/32/3639_2.png) [@Tranquilis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tranquilis)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2002, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-pakistan-and-american-self-interest/111751/15 "2002-06-03T12:47:57Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Squink \* > **Oops, that went off by accident.** “Safe” that weapon! You wanna get someone hurt…?! 😃