# India vs. Pakistan...who wins? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 22, 2006, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058 "2006-01-22T01:55:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/21 "2006-01-23T00:17:55Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Do you have a cite for that? Does Pakistan have enough nukes with sufficient range to make such a difference? India has over a **billion** people. It could lose 100 million without blinking. A nuclear attack of that size would probably destroy India as a unified, organized state, at least for a few generations. The disruption, dislocation of mass populations, cost of the devastation, and general panic and chaos would be utterly unmanageable. Remember how nutty things were in the U.S. after 9/11, when 3,000 people were murdered. Multiply that level of disruption by 33,333, and stick it into a country with about a tenth of the per capita income. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/22 "2006-01-23T01:30:13Z")
Another reason why this would be Real Bad would a huge outbreak of ‘Communal Violence.’ (Odd how only India and Pakistan suffers Communal Violence.) We would be talking about tens of thousands dead, I guess. Very bad indeed. ---
**Author:** ![hawkeyejo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e19b73/32.png) [@hawkeyejo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hawkeyejo)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/23 "2006-01-23T01:41:20Z")
After the plastering they gave India on the first two days, I’m betting it definitely won’t be India. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/24 "2006-01-23T02:09:44Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > A nuclear attack of that size would probably destroy India as a unified, organized state, at least for a few generations. The disruption, dislocation of mass populations, cost of the devastation, and general panic and chaos would be utterly unmanageable. > > Remember how nutty things were in the U.S. after 9/11, when 3,000 people were murdered. Multiply that level of disruption by 33,333, and stick it into a country with about a tenth of the per capita income. The thing is, you don’t even need such a catastrophe to cause an economic depression – which is what I stated, NOT a collapse. [http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/southasia.asp](http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/southasia.asp) shows scenarios of casualties based on the weapons India and Pakistan realistically fielded at press time – though based on a primitive city-busting strategy. Scenario 2, leaving the tactical hypothesis aside, includes a list of what major Indian cities are considered realistic targets from Pakistan: Ahmadabad, Bhopal, Bombai, Delhi, Jaipur, New Delhi and Pune. Eight cities, they estimate 12 bombs to take them out. For the sake of argument let’s say another 10 nukes to hit strategic industrial, transportation, and military-value targets within the range. And yes, they estimate 99% of the population and most of the conventional military survives unscathed. But between 4 and 15 million casualties in India translates to between 1.3 and 5 million casualties in the USA, together with the destruction of large portions of DC, Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Norfolk, Lower Manhattan and the Port of NY. With much less economic resources at hand to deal with the aftermath. The economy goes down. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/25 "2006-01-23T02:14:43Z")
Oh, and even in that NRDC game, India “wins” by at least still having more major cities standing, having potential casualties of “only” 1% rather than 7% of its population, and still having numerical superiority in surviving conventional forces. Some victory. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/26 "2006-01-23T02:24:54Z")
OK, I promise this is my final self-clarification in this turn: > [@JRDelirious](#): > > The thing is, you don’t even need such a catastrophe to cause an economic depression – which is what I stated, NOT a collapse. …to cause a _severe_ economic depression – which is what I stated _(“make India much poorer”)_, NOT a \*general national \* collapse. ---
**Author:** ![ouryL](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ouryl/32/6067_2.png) [@ouryL](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ouryL)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/27 "2006-01-23T07:04:49Z")
China ---
**Author:** ![Sweet\_Mercury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/49beb7/32.png) [@Sweet\_Mercury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sweet_Mercury)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2006, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/28 "2006-01-23T20:22:47Z")
> [@Ranchoth](#): > > This almost makes a GD. Almost. Ah, well… > > Anyway, I was just wondering…are there any estimates about who would win\* if India and Pakistan finally decided to wage total war against each other? Any idea what kind of casualties one could expect? > > (\*I realize “win” is kind of a relative term for a war like that. Maybe it’d be better phrased as “which side wouldn’t be completely wiped out” or “which side would come out the least f’ed up.”) Well, unlike WWII, where the US was able to wage total war with little real threat to it’s own borders, citizens, and economic infrastructure, a total land war between India and Pakistan would be devastating on every level. (As you pointed out.) And this is assuming a conventional war; nuclear war is too horrible to imagine. The only winners would be the countries and corporations who sell these idiots the means with which to destroy themselves, and the opportunistic few who find a way to profit by “helping” the few survivors left with picking up the pieces of their shattered lives. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Controvert](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/dec6dc/32.png) [@The\_Controvert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Controvert)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/29 "2006-01-24T03:17:13Z")
> [@don't ask](#): > > Have your life savings on the draw. Neither side has the attack to take 20 wickets on those wickets against those batsmen. Batsmen, if prepared. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/30 "2006-01-24T08:49:00Z")
> [@ultrafilter](#): > > I’m pretty sure that both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, so we pretty much all lose. I think in WarGames this was scenerio 5 or 6 when Joshua loses it. ---
**Author:** ![Ranchoth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranchoth/32/1066_2.png) [@Ranchoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranchoth)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 9:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/31 "2006-01-24T09:20:59Z")
> [@SaintCad](#): > > I think in WarGames this was scenerio 5 or 6 when Joshua loses it. [#8, to be precise.](http://www.shinerman.com/wargames.htm) “Ethiopian Local” would lead to WWIII? Yikes. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2006, 9:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058/32 "2006-01-24T09:51:38Z")
> [@The Controvert](#): > > Batsmen, if prepared. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/india-vs-pakistan-who-wins/341058.md?page=1)