# Indiana primary thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 29, 2016, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388 "2016-04-29T01:56:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2016, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/21 "2016-04-29T23:58:08Z")
> [@GrandWino](#): > > They stay home. > > Nate Silver had a write up on the theory that Trump’s increasing share of the vote has a lot to do with Cruz and Kasich voters who have decided to just stay home now that the NeverTrump movement has seemed to fizzle out. Do you have a link to the article, or remember the title? that sounds like an interesting theory that people are staying home at this point. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/22 "2016-04-30T00:12:06Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Do you have a link to the article, or remember the title? that sounds like an interesting theory that people are staying home at this point. It was [this one](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-trumps-nomination-to-lose/). ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/23 "2016-04-30T12:59:51Z")
So 538 has again modified his prediction thanks to another never heard of them poll that has Cruz up by 16! Looks like it was carried out over the same period as the other recent polls so seems crazy. Sorry for being so cranky earlier, DSeid. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/24 "2016-04-30T13:14:15Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > So 538 has again modified his prediction thanks to another never heard of them poll that has Cruz up by 16! Looks like it was carried out over the same period as the other recent polls so seems crazy. > > Sorry for being so cranky earlier, DSeid. Holy Crap! I just saw that too. How the hell did that happen!? All I can say is that this election cycle gives strong evidence to the idea that momentum is overrated. FWIW, I hope Cruz wins because I want as many firewalls between Donald Trump and nuclear weapons and I really don’t want Hillary to be the final firewall. If the price of that is Hillary faces a slightly tougher opponent in the general(and I’m not sure Cruz is) then I’ll take it. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/25 "2016-04-30T13:26:23Z")
The +16 poll is from “Indiana University – Purdue University Fort Wayne” (IPFW) so it’s not as though Fred’s Polling Shack released it although I’ve no idea how reliably Indiana University polls. And they well look like the outlier here. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/26 "2016-04-30T13:49:38Z")
Apparently from what I’ve read, polling in Indiana faces extra difficulties because of strict telemarketing laws they have there. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/27 "2016-04-30T14:51:47Z")
The Republican nominee is going to be either Trump, or almost-but-not-quite-Trump. Both are very easily beatable by Clinton, the latter possibly even more so. If Cruz had won the nomination handily, he would fare better than Trump in the general. But what we’re likely to be looking at now is a situation where Trump goes into the convention with a very strong plurality of the delegates pledged to him, nearly 50%, but where Cruz wins on the second or third ballot once delegates are released from their pledges. And that’s going to piss off a lot of Trump fans, including his biggest fan. We might end up seeing a hopeless third-party run from Trump, and even short of that, we might get a lot of Trump fans staying home, or writing him in, or even crossing over to Clinton out of spite. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/28 "2016-04-30T15:15:06Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The Republican nominee is going to be either Trump, or almost-but-not-quite-Trump. Both are very easily beatable by Clinton, the latter possibly even more so. If Cruz had won the nomination handily, he would fare better than Trump in the general. But what we’re likely to be looking at now is a situation where Trump goes into the convention with a very strong plurality of the delegates pledged to him, nearly 50%, but where Cruz wins on the second or third ballot once delegates are released from their pledges. And that’s going to piss off a lot of Trump fans, including his biggest fan. We might end up seeing a hopeless third-party run from Trump, and even short of that, we might get a lot of Trump fans staying home, or writing him in, or even crossing over to Clinton out of spite. At this point the only way anyone other than Trump can get the nomination is a contested convention and there’s absolutely no way Trump will just walk away. It’ll be too late for him to get on the ballot in a number of states, but 43 allow for write-in candidates and he’s got a really easy name to spell and a media that’ll give him lots of free media so he can run the campaign on the cheap. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/29 "2016-04-30T15:49:21Z")
And even in those seven states that don’t allow write-in candidates, there are still going to be a bunch of people writing him in, with the same effect. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/30 "2016-04-30T17:14:54Z")
> **[Ind. Republican Primary Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/)** > > Polls and predictions for the 2016 Indiana Republican primary: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich 538 today predicts a 65% chance of a Cruz win in Indiana. I sure as hell won’t go against Nate Silver, but that prediction is against every poll out there. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/31 "2016-04-30T17:23:57Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > [Ind. Republican Primary Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/) > > 538 today predicts a 65% chance of a Cruz win in Indiana. I sure as hell won’t go against Nate Silver, but that prediction is against every poll out there. Right, that’s why their “polls only” prediction puts it at 70% chance of Trump winning. > **[Ind. Republican Primary Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/#polls-only)** > > Polls and predictions for the 2016 Indiana Republican primary: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/32 "2016-04-30T17:29:38Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > … Sorry for being so cranky earlier, DSeid. No worries! And FWIW I’ll throw in [Wang’s take](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/04/28/indiana-may-not-matter-any-more/). > [@](#): > > What if we assume that Trump will lose Indiana? In that case the median drops to 1284 delegates (interquartile range 1278-1287). The probability of getting to 1237 is now 97% … I hope Cruz wins Indiana. The more divisive contentious and longer the process goes on on the GOP side the better to me. But win or lose Indiana, it’s going to be Clinton and Trump facing off. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/33 "2016-04-30T17:32:26Z")
Yeah the gap between the polls-only and polls-plus forecast on 538 is intriguing. If Cruz pulls out a win, it will be a major victory for 538’s full model versus a simple average of the polls. Clearly a lot depends on where Kasich voters turn and this [article](http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article74549052.html)doesn’t look good for Cruz in that regard. However it’s possible that after a few days to think it over, even Kasich supporters who are upset at his absence may well decide that Cruz is the lesser evil. Cruz and his allies know Indiana is do-or-die and are unloading millions of dollars of [advertising](http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/04/28/campaigns-and-super-pacs-spend-millions-on-indiana-ads/) which may make a small difference which is all Cruz needs. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2016, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/34 "2016-04-30T18:34:51Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Apparently from what I’ve read, polling in Indiana faces extra difficulties because of strict telemarketing laws they have there. LMAO, I wish this were true. ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2016, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/35 "2016-05-01T01:44:55Z")
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP But Cruz will probably win this state as he seems to be having momentum.☹ ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2016, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/36 "2016-05-01T02:36:51Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Apparently from what I’ve read, polling in Indiana faces extra difficulties because of strict telemarketing laws they have there. We have? I get telemarketing calls all the time on my cell phone in spite of repeatedly putting the number on the “Do not call” list. During the last mayoral election, I told the Republican mayoral committee to stop calling me and take me off their list three times. The fourth time, I told them that every time they called me I was going to send five dollars to his rival’s election campaign. They called once more, and I did it, and emailed a jpeg of a $5 bill to the Republican campaign HQ, saying it was a picture of the money I had sent to his rival in order to make good on my promise. They finally stopped calling. And I get a pollster call almost every day. I also get polls in the mail. I throw them out. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2016, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/37 "2016-05-01T03:13:59Z")
**CarnalK** is, according to the NYT, [correct.](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/upshot/the-most-important-primary-is-wait-indiana.html?_r=0) > [@NYT 4/18/2016 Nate Cohn's The Upshot](#): > > … But even though Indiana may be pivotal — it awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district and statewide — the state is a big mystery because there hasn’t been a single poll there. That’s not just because of East Coast media bias (although it may be part of it); it’s a tough state to poll. **Indiana law prohibits automated polling, the go-to method for many low-cost pollsters.** > > The state does not have party registration, which makes it modestly more challenging and costly for pollsters to conduct surveys of the voter registration file. Many of the prolific public pollsters employ the random-digit dialing method, like Quinnipiac, and have no history in the state. I suspect that a few pollsters will ultimately field surveys, but there won’t be many. … Bolding mine. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2016, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/38 "2016-05-01T14:20:19Z")
And the latest “polls plus” on five thirty-eight is back with Trump with a 69% chance of winning the Indiana primary. I’d love an explanation from them for this reversal. [http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-republican/) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/39 "2016-05-01T14:56:51Z")
Probably no more complex than the addition of the new Marist poll, Trump +15. It moved poll only to 94% chance of Trump win. When polling is thin one recent poll with a solid result moves their needle lots. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2016, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/40 "2016-05-01T15:48:42Z")
Yeah, they got a new poll from a much more well known and reliable firm (Marist/WSJ/NBC) than the Indiana University one so they weigh it better. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388.md?page=3)