# Indiana primary thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 29, 2016, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388 "2016-04-29T01:56:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/61 "2016-05-03T02:59:20Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Rule 16(a)(2) says … Unless they change the rule. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/62 "2016-05-03T05:30:23Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Unless they change the rule. I strongly doubt that they will. The RNC is already on eggshells about the rules and making sure it comes across as fair as possible, lest they wind up with a situation on their hands. That said, the rules currently are what they are and any questions about what could happen can only be answered with them as they currently stand. Hypothetically, the punishment for changing your vote _could_ be ten minutes of alligator wrestling if they change the rules to make it so. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/63 "2016-05-03T14:08:46Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > There’s Conspiracy Theory #2,305 going around about how the pledged delegates for Trump (who are against Trump) could just not show up for the first ballot, denying him a majority. I suspect that their vote would be recorded as for their pledged candidate anyway. Certainly denying Trump a majority that way would be burning the place down. Isn’t “being able to vote in place of a delegate” the sole reason alternates exist? Also note that: (a) Rule 40(d) says that a candidate requires a majority of the votes “entitled to be cast” in order to receive the nomination, so delegates not voting are not simply ignored; and, (b) according to Rule 32, a motion to suspend the rules can be submitted from the floor at any time; this requires a majority of the delegates of each of eight states (one to make the motion, and seven more to second it), but obviously any motion that has any chance of passing would have this. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/64 "2016-05-03T14:47:43Z")
Let’s say that the Rules Committee steam rolls Trump and denies him a majority (assuming he has enough pledged delegates to win on the first ballot). Who is their candidate? Cruz? I think they hate him more than Trump. It would almost have to be Kasich, but then they will face unyielding criticism that they handed the nomination to the guy who only won a single state: his home state. However, he is the guy that the polls show is leading Hillary Clinton and would be all but guaranteed to deliver Ohio, a crucial swing state, in the GOP column. If I was on the Rules Committee, that’s what I would do. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/65 "2016-05-03T14:49:09Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Jophiel** : > > Rule 16(a)(2) says that their vote will be recorded as for their pledged candidate regardless: That’s not actually what it says: > [@](#): > > If any delegate bound by these rules, state party rule or state law to vote for a presidential candidate at the national convention demonstrates support under Rule 40 for any person other than the candidate to whom he or she is bound, such support **shall not be recognized.** So suppose a delegate pledged to Trump instead votes for Cruz on the first ballot. Under the current rules, that delegate’s vote for Cruz will not be recognized, but that’s not the same as saying that it’ll be recognized as a Trump vote. It looks to me like that delegate’s vote just wouldn’t count at all, either way. Which, given the other rules and the current makeup of the delegates, makes it effectively as good as a Cruz vote anyway. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/66 "2016-05-03T15:00:49Z")
@UltraVires: The rules committee isn’t made up of party assigned members. They come from the delegate pool. I find it pretty unlikely they suggest rules that explicitly reject Trump and/or Cruz. > [@](#): > > Who Decides the Rules for the 2016 Republican National Convention? > The convention delegates decide. > > A week before the Convention, the 2016 Convention Rules Committee must convene to put together a package of rules to recommend for consideration by all delegates. > > Delegates from each state and territory elect two representatives from within their own delegations to the Convention Rules Committee – 112 delegates in total. > > The Convention Rules Committee, after debate and discussion, adopts by majority vote a package of recommended rules that moves to the convention floor. > > Once a majority of the convention delegates adopt the report, the rules become the permanent rules governing that Convention. > > That package, called a Rules Report, is adopted by the Convention Rules Committee by majority vote. [https://gop.com/convention-facts/?convention\_type=rules](https://gop.com/convention-facts/?convention_type=rules) And seriously what kind of rule you think they could adopt to “deny Trump the majority” that wouldn’t get them burned at the stake? ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/67 "2016-05-03T15:38:06Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > That’s not actually what it says: > > So suppose a delegate pledged to Trump instead votes for Cruz on the first ballot. Under the current rules, that delegate’s vote for Cruz will not be recognized, but that’s not the same as saying that it’ll be recognized as a Trump vote. It looks to me like that delegate’s vote just wouldn’t count at all, either way. Which, given the other rules and the current makeup of the delegates, makes it effectively as good as a Cruz vote anyway. But prior to that, it says that _“The Secretary of the Convention shall faithfully announce and record each delegate’s vote in accordance with the delegate’s obligation under these rules…”_ which would imply that the Secretary is going to record each delegates first ballot vote per that delegate’s obligation regardless of whatever nonsense the delegate wants to get into. So a Trump delegate voting for Cruz won’t be recognized as such but would rather be recorded per their obligation (Trump). That’s just my reading though. I am not a convention rules lawyer. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/68 "2016-05-03T15:46:05Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Even if he wins every delegate he will still be about 70 short by California. > [@Frank](#): > > That’s inaccurate. There are 502 delegates outstanding. > [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > And that proves me wrong how? > Trump needs about 240 delegates. _Between now and California_ there are these primaries. > May 3, 2016 > Indiana > Number of Delegates: 57 Total Delegates > May 10, 2016 > Nebraska > Number of Delegates: 36 Total Delegates > > West Virginia > Number of Delegates: 34 Total Delegates > May 17, 2016 > Oregon > Number of Delegates: 28 Total Delegates > May 24, 2016 > Washington > Number of Delegates: 44 Total Delegates > > Making 199 delegates available _Between now and California_ making it impossible for Trump to clinch _before California_. He didn’t say you were _wrong_; he said you were _inaccurate_. And then you went and proved he was correct to do so. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/69 "2016-05-03T15:48:35Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > You’re right. I misunderstood your post. Way to throw me under the bus. I REALLY ought to read to the end of a thread before I post. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/70 "2016-05-03T21:29:35Z")
Last minute prediction: Hillary wins by 55-45 Trump wins by 60 ---
**Author:** ![purplehearingaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7bcc69/32.png) [@purplehearingaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/purplehearingaid)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/71 "2016-05-03T21:36:56Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Hillary will win both. Part of me wonders if I should vote for Trump instead just because Trump will be easier to beat in the general. Then again, I never thought he’d make it this far in the primary so what do I know. I knew Trump would get this far and people told me not worry about it So you’re not the only one that thought Trump wouldn’t get this far. I just don’t understand why Trump has gotten this far , he does nothing for me. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/72 "2016-05-03T21:42:35Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > Way to throw me under the bus. > > I REALLY ought to read to the end of a thread before I post. :smack: While I appreciate the effort, he is right, and I was wrong. If Trump wins all the delegates in May, he will be about 70 short. I misread his post to include California (and the other primaries that day). ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/73 "2016-05-03T23:13:44Z")
[TRUMP wins Indiana!](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/us/politics/indiana-republican-democratic.html?action=Click&contentCollection=BreakingNews&contentID=63054819&pgtype=Blogs) This is a momentous day in American politics, with TRUMP the overwhelming favourite to be the next Republican nominee for President. Yes you read that right. A man who is against promiscuous free trade, is supportive of maintaining Social Security and Medicare, wants to give the government the power to negotiate to lower the price of pharmaceuticuals, and _denounced George W. Bush for lying about the Iraq War and letting 9/11 happen on his watch on national television_ will be the nominee. Thank God. Hallelujah. ---
**Author:** ![Memnon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f1d935/32.png) [@Memnon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Memnon)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/74 "2016-05-03T23:27:19Z")
TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP! Sorry. Got a bit carried away… ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/75 "2016-05-03T23:33:35Z")
Sanders is really carrying his own, it is neck and neck with 15% of the vote in. When they first started counting Clinton was ahead by 10 points at least. Edit: Sanders just overtook Clinton with 17% of the vote in. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/76 "2016-05-03T23:34:19Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > [TRUMP wins Indiana!](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/us/politics/indiana-republican-democratic.html?action=Click&contentCollection=BreakingNews&contentID=63054819&pgtype=Blogs) > > This is a momentous day in American politics, with TRUMP the overwhelming favourite to be the next Republican nominee for President. Yes you read that right. A man who is against promiscuous free trade, is supportive of maintaining Social Security and Medicare, wants to give the government the power to negotiate to lower the price of pharmaceuticuals, and _denounced George W. Bush for lying about the Iraq War and letting 9/11 happen on his watch on national television_ will be the nominee. Thank God. Hallelujah. And a birther, other conspiracy theorist, regular liar, and regular stater of misogynist and racist things! Go Trump go! ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/77 "2016-05-03T23:35:22Z")
Ha, Sanders is winning in [Clinton county](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_County,_Indiana)in Indiana. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/78 "2016-05-03T23:38:25Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Go Trump go! And stay gone! 😛 ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/79 "2016-05-03T23:43:39Z")
Crap. Todd Young is in the lead. I voted in the Republican primary to vote against this asshole. BTW: a lot of Indiana voters cross-over voted, or so the buzz is, so I wouldn’t make too much either of Clinton being behind or Trump being way in the lead. A lot of Hoosiers figured that Clinton pretty much has the nomination sewed up, and Trump will be easier for her to beat, what with the numbers of people who have sworn to stay home if he wins, and then there’s the Todd Young issue. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/80 "2016-05-03T23:52:12Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > [TRUMP wins Indiana!](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/04/us/politics/indiana-republican-democratic.html?action=Click&contentCollection=BreakingNews&contentID=63054819&pgtype=Blogs) > > This is a momentous day in American politics, with TRUMP the overwhelming favourite to be the next Republican nominee for President. Yes you read that right. A man who is against promiscuous free trade, is supportive of maintaining Social Security and Medicare, wants to give the government the power to negotiate to lower the price of pharmaceuticuals, and _denounced George W. Bush for lying about the Iraq War and letting 9/11 happen on his watch on national television_ will be the nominee. Thank God. Hallelujah. Don’t worry. The odds of Trump winning in November… Oddshack. Hillary Clinton -340 Donald Trump +280 Bernie Sanders +2500 Ted Cruz +2500 John Kaisch +10000 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388.md?page=5)