# Indiana primary thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 29, 2016, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388 "2016-04-29T01:56:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/81 "2016-05-03T23:52:44Z")
> [@RivkahChaya](#): > > Crap. Todd Young is in the lead. I voted in the Republican primary to vote against this asshole. > > BTW: a lot of Indiana voters cross-over voted, or so the buzz is, so I wouldn’t make too much either of Clinton being behind or Trump being way in the lead. A lot of Hoosiers figured that Clinton pretty much has the nomination sewed up, and Trump will be easier for her to beat, what with the numbers of people who have sworn to stay home if he wins, and then there’s the Todd Young issue. I assumed this played a role, but it is disappointing if the only reason Sanders is winning (so far) is because Clinton’s voters didn’t bother to turn out to vote. I considered voting for Trump just because he is an easier candidate to beat in the general election, but decided against it. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2016, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/82 "2016-05-03T23:55:24Z")
Looking at the NYT results, nothing yet from NW Indiana (Gary and environs), which is heavily Democratic and heavily African-American, so Hillary should (depending on turnout) do well there…but still to close to call. [Indiana Election Results 2016 – The New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/indiana) I still cannot believe Donald Trump is going to be the nominee for President…oh, it is going to happen, I know that, I still just cannot figure out how We The People have done that to ourselves. Of course, neither can the RNC, who are supposed to be the ‘smart guys’… ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/83 "2016-05-04T00:02:25Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > Looking at the NYT results, nothing yet from NW Indiana (Gary and environs), which is heavily Democratic and heavily African-American, so Hillary should (depending on turnout) do well there…but still to close to call. [Indiana Election Results 2016 – The New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/indiana) Yeah, most of what’s remaining is NW Indiana and southern Indiana, both of which Clinton is doing well in. And Marion county/Indianapolis which as them tied but I suspect will go to Clinton. It won’t be a big win but I’ll be surprised if Clinton doesn’t win. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/84 "2016-05-04T00:09:18Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > John Kaisch +10000 I might put some $ on that as a value bet. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/85 "2016-05-04T00:18:48Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > Of course, neither can the RNC, who are supposed to be the ‘smart guys’… Cite? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/86 "2016-05-04T00:36:59Z")
538 predicted a 90% chance that Clinton would win, they projected 54% Clinton, 43% Sanders. Not even close. What happened to 538? They used to be really accurate. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/87 "2016-05-04T00:40:18Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > 538 predicted a 90% chance that Clinton would win, they projected 54% Clinton, 43% Sanders. > > Not even close. What happened to 538? They used to be really accurate. Umm, primary polls not being as good as general election polls happened. Edit: Also, if the person with a 10% chance _never_ wins, that’s not a good forecast, in the same way that sometimes you should get rained on when the weather forecast says there’s a 10% chance of rain. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/88 "2016-05-04T00:41:10Z")
What the hell. On CNN they’ve got a breaking news banner saying “campaign source: Cruz to drop out of presidential race” in the middle of his speech. If true this is one of the most fired up stump style concession speech Ive ever seen. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/89 "2016-05-04T00:41:24Z")
Fat lady is warbling: [http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/03/ted-cruz-suspends-campaign.html](http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/03/ted-cruz-suspends-campaign.html) ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/90 "2016-05-04T00:41:59Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > Umm, primary polls not being as good as general election polls happened. What are you basing that on? Why is 538 able to be extremely accurate in 2008 and 2012, but in the 2016 primary they are off by 5-10 points? ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/91 "2016-05-04T00:42:01Z")
It’s true. Cruz just announced he’s suspending his campaign. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/92 "2016-05-04T00:44:16Z")
Ok, did Fiorina just have the shortest Vice Presidential run in history? ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/93 "2016-05-04T00:45:59Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > What are you basing that on? Why is 538 able to be extremely accurate in 2008 and 2012, but in the 2016 primary they are off by 5-10 points? You’re reading things into the forecasts that aren’t there. They do not declare a single thing that _will_ happen. If the 10% chance candidate never wins, that also reflects badly on their forecasts. There are fifty states and several territories voting, so we should expect someone with a 10% chance to win to win sometimes. A 10% chance of rain does not mean that you can leave your umbrella at home and not risk getting wet. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/94 "2016-05-04T00:49:20Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Ok, did Fiorina just have the shortest Vice Presidential run in history? Apparently so, beating Eagleton who was a VP candidate for 18 days. Fiorina got 6 days out of it. Also, Lake County sucks at counting ballots… again. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/95 "2016-05-04T00:50:12Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > 538 predicted a 90% chance that Clinton would win, they projected 54% Clinton, 43% Sanders. > > Not even close. What happened to 538? They used to be really accurate. Looking at the results so far (on the NYT map I referenced above), Sanders lead is about 23,000 votes (57% reporting), but there are still 118 precincts in Evansville where Hillary is currently posting a 65-35 lead, and Gary hasn’t changed except to show “initial results”. Sanders probably will win, but I think it will tighten up. The three big college towns (IU, Purdue, Notre Dame) are pretty much counted (and about half of the Sanders lead is from those three locations–he’s doing very well with the IU students). We’ll see if Clinton can close the gap. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/96 "2016-05-04T00:51:47Z")
Now that Cruz is out, I wonder what the RNC will do. Looks like it’s going to be a big Sanders win. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/97 "2016-05-04T00:57:04Z")
I’m surprised that Clinton is trailing in Marion County but so it goes. The map was showing a lot more Clinton leads in central Indiana earlier that all switched to Sanders. I’m not saying election conspiracy but… totally election conspiracy 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/98 "2016-05-04T00:57:47Z")
> [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](#): > > Looking at the NYT results, nothing yet from NW Indiana (Gary and environs), which is heavily Democratic and heavily African-American, so Hillary should (depending on turnout) do well there…but still to close to call. [Indiana Election Results 2016 – The New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/indiana) Evansville (SW) and Gary are on CST, so polls close an hour later than the rest of the state. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/99 "2016-05-04T01:41:27Z")
Indiana’s been called for Sanders with 75% reporting. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2016, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388/100 "2016-05-04T02:06:27Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > You’re reading things into the forecasts that aren’t there. They do not declare a single thing that _will_ happen. If the 10% chance candidate never wins, that also reflects badly on their forecasts. There are fifty states and several territories voting, so we should expect someone with a 10% chance to win to win sometimes. > > A 10% chance of rain does not mean that you can leave your umbrella at home and not risk getting wet. > **[Ind. Democratic Primary Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/indiana-democratic/)** > > Polls and predictions for the 2016 Indiana Democratic primary: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders 538 predicted a 90% chance of a Hillary win with Hillary at 54% to Sanders 43%. Results so far are a Sanders win with 53% Sanders vs 47% Hillary. I recall other states having the same total misreading by 538 this election cycle. They are really dropping the ball compared to the past. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/indiana-primary-thread/753388.md?page=6)