# Inflation is not currently a menace

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [December 8, 2021, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738 "2021-12-08T22:40:28Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 10

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**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/181 "2022-07-20T04:07:49Z")

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> [@Magiver](#):
>
> I never made the claim as stated in the article. What I posted was accurate and your rebuttal did not apply to what I said. Trump put the sanctions on the pipeline, Congressional Democrats agreed with him UNTIL Biden took the sanctions off. That is fact.
> 
> You’re just trying to rewrite history. You’re the one holding the lipstick.

Nope, that is what people that looked at what took place report, I was not. Of course, for many on the right, it is better to dismiss a poster in a thread rather than what was reported. As it usually happens, Trump and the sources you use continue to mislead many. The sanctions that Trump begrudgingly signed were approved by congress.

> “Trump’s early fawning of Putin sent strong signals that the U.S. would not be pursuing a tough policy towards Russia,” said Susanne Wengle, a political scientist at the University of Notre Dame.
> 
> Congress felt it had to get involved because both parties feared Trump could not be trusted with Russia, and they didn’t want to leave him the unilateral power to end sanctions via executive order, said Yoshiko M. Herrera, a University Wisconsin-Madison political scientist.

So, not credible to try to ignore what political scientists reported, (now **that** is pathetic)

Trump has made a career of claiming to take credit for many things after he was compelled to do so.

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/182 "2022-07-20T04:23:06Z")

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> [@GIGObuster](#):
>
> for many on the right, it is better to dismiss a poster in a thread rather than what was reported.

You printed opinion that you agreed with and then used it in an argument against something that I never said… If you think Trump signed something he didn’t like because Democrats wantedit then that’s amazing conclusion to make. Especially in light of Democrats changing their position when Biden removed the sanctions.

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**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/183 "2022-07-20T04:28:37Z")

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> [@Magiver](#):
>
> You printed opinion that you agreed with and then used it in an argument against something that I never said…

Duly noted that you will avoid what serious researchers pointed out. Incidentally, I’m just saying, your opinion lacks a mess of context. And that is what Trump and the Republicans in congress repeating this sorry talking point depend on.

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/184 "2022-07-20T04:43:15Z")

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> [@GIGObuster](#):
>
> Duly noted that you will avoid what serious researchers pointed out. Incidentally, I’m just saying, your opinion lacks a mess of context.

The context is clear. Trump signed sanctions on the pipeline that Democrats agreed with UNTIL Biden removed those sanctions.

It couldn’t be more obvious where Trump and Biden stood on the issue.

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**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/185 "2022-07-20T04:46:15Z")

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Again, the Trump “hero” does not look as impressive on that when one looks at the context that was omitted before. Incidentally, it was pointed out why Biden removed those sanctions, omitting that is part of putting the lipstick on the Trump pig.

Regarding the OP, I do think that in any case the inflation issue and history does tell me that the Democrats are likely to lose the house. What is sad is that Republicans will not do much to solve the issue. In reality, I expect most of them to make it worse for women, minorities and the poor in the US. ([As the latest votes in congress show)](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/gay-marriage-republicans-house_n_62d74240e4b081f3a8f8511f)

Instead of looking at the economic issue, most items like climate change, help to needy families, immigration reform, health care reform, etc. will not see progress. A Republican victory will be seen by them as a mandate to make things worse in many other issues.

Many will vote to get the candy, and they will not even get that.

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**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/186 "2022-07-20T13:11:44Z")

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> [@Magiver](#):
>
> If every country refused to send oil to the US we would still have more oil than we need and be independent.

If every country refused to send oil to the US we would run out of oil. We’d still export the oil that is mismatched to our refineries (or stop producing it if we re-ban exports) and shut down the refineries that can’t get their foreign supply.

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**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/187 "2022-07-20T17:15:57Z")

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I decided to test the assumption. You know, the one made… by a Trump supporter, which we all appeared to accept… that America had achieved energy independence as defined by the country producing more oil than it consumes.

| Year | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Daily Production (1000s brls) | 7559 | 7890 | 8931 | 10103 | 11807 | 12783 | 12354 | 13140 | 15310 | 17114 | 16458 | 16585 |
| Daily Consumption (1000s brls) | 18322 | 17993 | 17581 | 17992 | 18111 | 18499 | 18593 | 18845 | 19417 | 19424 | 17183 | |
| Balance | (10,763) | (10,102) | (8,650) | (7,889) | (6,304) | (5,716) | (6,239) | (5,705) | (4,107) | (2,310) | (726) | (2,099) |
| Annual Deficit (all barrels) | (3,928,601,309) | (3,687,341,511) | (3,157,165,802) | (2,879,354,461) | (2,301,122,175) | (2,086,292,725) | (2,277,248,031) | (2,082,433,418) | (1,498,907,737) | (843,085,952) | (264,849,275) | (766,220,130) |

I grew suspicious when I realized that someone was making a statement of fact about an measurable benefit arising from the Trump administration.

_Did this benefit, in fact, occur?_

Turns out it did not, that the US was never “oil independent” during the Trump administration or, frankly, at any time since the mid-1960s. To be more precise, the trends were tending towards ‘independence’ but it did not happen.

From:

> **[Statistical Review of World Energy | Energy economics | Home](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html)**
>
> This year’s 71st edition of the bp Statistical Review of World Energy helps to make sense of the greatest challenges and uncertainties facing the global energy system for almost 50 years

To be fair, this isn’t so much on Magiver but on us for accepting this as fact. We… including myself… should know better. We’re Dopers.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/188 "2022-07-20T18:27:57Z")

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EIA lists small net exports for 2020 and 2021 after net imports peaked in 2005.

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [July 20, 2022, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/189 "2022-07-20T19:25:54Z")

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> [@Ruken](#):
>
> EIA lists small net exports for 2020 and 2021 after net imports peaked in 2005

Can you provide a cite for this, please?

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [July 21, 2022, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/190 "2022-07-21T22:13:48Z")

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[United States exported more petroleum than it imported in 2020, according to EIA](https://dailyenergyinsider.com/news/29194-united-states-exported-more-petroleum-than-it-imported-in-2020-according-to-eia/)

- In 2020, the United States exported more petroleum than it imported – marking the first time that has happened, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s February 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

- However, EIA expects the U.S. to return to being a net petroleum importer in 2021 and 2022 due to declines in domestic crude oil production and corresponding increases in crude oil imports.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\
**Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/191 "2022-07-22T00:02:40Z")

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Meanwhile in Canada, inflation just hit 8.1% - the highest since 1983. We also printed and spent money like lunatics.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\
**Post date:** [July 22, 2022, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/192 "2022-07-22T01:16:44Z")

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FFS people can we please stop using outdated third-party summaries of government data instead of the source. Nobody who has any business talking about energy needs this:

[https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a)

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2022, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/193 "2022-07-23T22:43:06Z")

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That only references imports.

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**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\
**Post date:** [July 23, 2022, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/194 "2022-07-23T22:52:30Z")

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> [@Magiver](#):
>
> That only references imports

That’s imports [minus] exports. Notice that it goes below -0-. That represents a net export.

ETA: this may provide more clarity:

> **[Oil imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php)**
>
> U.S. crude oil imports sources including OPEC and Persian Gulf, and top five source countries of U.S. oil imports and destinations of U.S. crude oil exports.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\
**Post date:** [July 24, 2022, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/195 "2022-07-24T12:53:46Z")

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> [@Magiver](#):
>
> due to declines in domestic crude oil production and corresponding increases in crude oil imports.

Imports and exports are largely decoupled because, again, we aren’t importing and exporting the same kinds of oil. We could double domestic production from current plays and we still wouldn’t be “independent”.

Imports have been relatively flat over the past two years and are lower than pre-pandemic. Production began rebounding about a year ago.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\
**Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/196 "2022-07-26T16:41:02Z")

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John Oliver’s show this week was on inflation. He tears apart the ridiculous oversimplification that the current rise is caused by the U.S. “printing money” and shows that it is far more complex and worldwide.

[![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/MBo4GViDxzc/maxresdefault.jpg "Inflation: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBo4GViDxzc)

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/197 "2022-07-26T22:17:24Z")

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> [@Ruken](#):
>
> We could double domestic production from current plays and we still wouldn’t be “independent”.

We’re independent when we export more than we important. It means we have the capacity to cancel out an embargo.

That we import oil is a matter of convenience due to the size of the country and proximity to different markets.

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**Author:** ![Kropotkin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kropotkin/32/18045_2.png) [@Kropotkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kropotkin)\
**Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/198 "2022-07-26T22:21:47Z")

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Governments don’t “print money” to increase the money supply. Using this metaphor is inaccurate and can be misleading to the extent it conjures up notions of Weimar.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/199 "2022-07-26T22:31:48Z")

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What you miss is that it depends on the region of the US you are talking about, it is more complicated than the oversimplification you are pointing at.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\
**Post date:** [July 26, 2022, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/200 "2022-07-26T22:59:10Z")

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What Magiver is also missing is that Ruken is one of our experts in this field. Usually don’t want to argue from authority here at the SDMB, but in this case it’s a valid point.

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