# Inflation is not currently a menace **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 8, 2021, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738 "2021-12-08T22:40:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/221 "2022-07-28T04:34:21Z")
Apparently, Moody Analytics had something to say about inflation. Why not quote them directly, rather than quoting some comedian’s take on what they said? ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/222 "2022-07-28T04:43:26Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > capacity to process, and importing light sweet crude? You have way more natural gas than you need, but not enough gasoline for cars. This is a hypothetical, right? Because energy costs in the upper northeast are doubling in August due to an alleged shortage of natural gas which generates the vast majority of electricity in at least NH. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/223 "2022-07-28T04:46:42Z")
Speaking of quoting takes, please make one: [https://flic.kr/p/2nAQyYV](https://flic.kr/p/2nAQyYV) Your only contribution is to complain about someone else contributing to the discussion. Amazing work there, my friend. Top notch, truly a credit to this topic _and_ the SDMB. Moody Analytics, everyone! > **[Oil & Gas | Reports | Moody's](https://www.moodys.com/researchandratings/market-segment/corporates/oil-gas/005000019)** > > Find the latest ratings, reports, data, and analytics on Oil & Gas ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/224 "2022-07-28T04:50:20Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Apparently, Moody Analytics had something to say about inflation. Why not quote them directly Are you asking for assistance in finding the Moody’s Analytics report referenced by GIGObuster in post #208? [Here you go.](https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2022/global-fiscal-policy-in-the-pandemic.pdf) > [@](#): > > Although the ARP [American Rescue Plan] was costly to U.S. taxpayers, without it, the ultimate cost to. them would have been equally as large. Because of the weaker economy and automatic fiscal stabilizers, tax revenues would have been lower and government outlays higher. By the end of this decade, the nation’s debt burden would have been as large as it will end up being with the ARP (see Chart 14). […] > > The massive global fiscal policy response to the pandemic deserves significant credit for limiting the severity and length of the recession that occurred when the pandemic struck, and for the sub- sequently strong global economic recovery (see Table 5). > > There has been criticism of global policymakers for going overboard on the fiscal support, with crit- ics pointing to recent concerns over high inflation and bigger government deficits and debt loads. But as we show, even without the fiscal support, inflation would still be a worry. Not because in- flation would have been too high, but too low—as it had been since the financial crisis. Many glob- al central banks would have nervously watched as their economies flirted with or suffered outright deflation in 2020. Though global inflation would have picked up in 2021 because of base effects of prices being depressed a year earlier, its rebound would have been slower. > > Further, the fiscal situation of most countries already would have been even worse if they had not provided the fiscal support, as their much-weakened economies would have caused tax revenues to plummet and government expenditures to automatically increase (see Chart 18). The case is the same for the U.S., although it will take a bit longer for this to become clear. > > Thus, second-guessing the aggressive fiscal policy response of governments to the pandemic is misplaced. Governments had no choice but to act quickly and massively. Perhaps some of the specific policy steps taken during the crisis could have been better designed, at least in hindsight. However, policymakers’ decisiveness in pushing forward with substantial government support has been an economic game changer. Which is basically, although more lengthily, just how John Oliver described it. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/225 "2022-07-28T04:50:23Z")
I strongly disagree. If someone has primary sources, quote those sources, not secondary or tertiary ones. That said, I’m out of this thread. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/226 "2022-07-28T04:51:03Z")
My point was you were never in it. Bye! (Moody Analytics is also a secondary source.) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/227 "2022-07-28T13:44:10Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > I strongly disagree. If someone has primary sources, quote those sources, not secondary or tertiary ones. Meh, what @JohnT and @Kimstu said, this shooting the messenger fallacy is getting old. The reason why John Oliver was cited (and it was not by me first in this thread BTW) is that he has demonstrated that while being a comedian he has a history of citing experts or the facts. He is more than a comedian, he is a [satirist](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satire). What you did was just once again a fallacy, the one about shooting the messenger (three actually, Moody, Oliver and then me). But the lesson here is that one should know that a messenger like Oliver can shoot back at clear attempts at covering up a well deserved burn like he did against the geriatric Dr. Evil from Murray Energy. [https://www.fastcompany.com/40535952/john-oliver-won-the-right-to-use-a-giant-squirrel-to-mock-a-coal-baron](https://www.fastcompany.com/40535952/john-oliver-won-the-right-to-use-a-giant-squirrel-to-mock-a-coal-baron). baron. > In a segment on his satiric news show, Oliver slammed Murray, alleging that a mining accident that killed nine people was partially the result of improper practices, not an earthquake as Murray’s company had claimed. He also had a giant squirrel write a check telling him to, “Eat shit, Bob!” After the segment aired, Oliver knew that the notoriously litigious Murray was likely to sue. “I know you’re probably going to sue me over this. But, you know what? I stand by everything I said,” he said on the show. Murray couldn’t resist the bait, apparently, and did indeed sue. [He filed a defamation suit](https://www.fastcompany.com/4041558/john-oliver-and-hbo-are-getting-sued-by-the-coal-industry-after-a-last-week-tonight-segment) in West Virginia against Oliver, HBO, and Time Warner > Judge Jeffrey Cramer of West Virginia’s second judicial circuit dismissed the suit. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/228 "2022-07-28T15:25:50Z")
I’m neither an economist nor a comedian, and have no credentials on the topic worth noting. Personally, I would have to say that the Fed flubbed and it’s continuing to do so. The market crash, leading into the pandemic, was rational. If nothing else, you want to pull out your money, analyze, and put it back in on different squares than before. But, even then, with people staying home and not allowed to go to sports events, not going on holiday, etc. In general, you would expect that homes are going to be more fiscally restrained than usual and, consequently, giving less money to businesses. The amount that the pandemic adds to certain parts of the economy (e.g. pharmaceutical research) are smaller than all the money that’s removed (particularly through the reduced [velocity of money](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money)). But then the stock market went above previous years. That’s irrational. The housing market also started to go up and, to some amount, that’s rational because people aren’t wasting money on beer and sports games as much, but it shouldn’t be by too much since this is a 20-30 year commitment and, once the pandemic ends, the games and beer will return. The interest rate should have been raised to put a bit of caution on the eyes of all the speculators. The Fed’s mission is to spur the economy when it is being overly cautious and to rein it in when it’s being overly bubbly. That is often correlated with inflation but not necessarily. The CPI is currently high because the supply chains have gotten messed up and because there are gas shortages. That’s rational. It’s the expected and healthy behavior of a well functioning economy for real issues to have costs. Simply raising and lowering the interest rate to hit a magical inflation number is not good management of the Fed. We should have had the money available to deal with the post-pandemic supply chain reboot, because it was in our pockets having been saved up, rather than blown away on GameStop stocks and houses that we will quickly be unable to afford. I’m not sure that raising the interest rate is currently bad but, certainly, it’s a ridiculous endeavor right now. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/229 "2022-07-28T16:50:15Z")
Savings rose more than $4 trillion, over 40%, during the pandemic. A major component of the current inflation comes from that money poring back into the economy and hitting supply chain issues as everybody tries to everything at once, thereby driving up prices for what is available. The stock market, especially tech and fintech, has been irrationally priced for years because it appeared to be zero risk. That subjects it to panic when risk appears. None of our conservative friends have mentioned that the market went down 30% under Trump when COVID offered an unknown risk. (The President is responsible for EVERYTHING! Unless he’s Republican.) It recovered when money was poured into the economy. Now a new set of risks have appeared and the market is again realizing that expecting a constant rise is irrational in the real world. The money saved is not going to GameStop - so last year - or to houses - whose sales have shrunk 25% since the beginning of the year. The people most hurt by inflation aren’t the ones buying stock and houses in the first place. In the long term, targeting inflation at 2% seems to work in all economic conditions, since it worked for the past 40 years. You can look at history for data points; there is in fact no choice. The inflation rate went from 12% to 4% from 1981 to 1983 through the Fed’s actions. Those screaming INFLATION! have put forth no rationale for why a similar drop won’t occur now. The Dow Jones, BTW, rose 25% over those two years. Given the irrationality of buyers I don’t predict market futures. Nevertheless it would not surprise me to see the market rise as inflation shrinks. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2022, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/230 "2022-07-28T18:21:41Z")
Good rebuttals. I’ll have to double-check your numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/231 "2022-07-29T02:32:08Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The stock market, especially tech and fintech, has been irrationally priced for years because it appeared to be zero risk. That subjects it to panic when risk appears. None of our conservative friends have mentioned that the market went down 30% under Trump when COVID offered an unknown risk. (The President is responsible for EVERYTHING! Unless he’s Republican.) We argued about financial damage vs health risk during the pandemic. Presidents do not have control over state and city policies. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/232 "2022-07-29T02:36:37Z")
Nor inflation. Nor oil or gas prices. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/233 "2022-07-29T02:55:29Z")
Presidents have a Secretary of Energy to deal with energy policy… ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/234 "2022-07-29T03:13:41Z")
Don’t we all fondly remember the days when Rick Perry wanted to abolish the Department of Energy because he thought it dealt with energy policy? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/235 "2022-07-29T03:30:38Z")
Sorry, too busy paying over $4 a gallon for gas because the current Secretary of Energy’s policy involves the Saudis selling us more oil. This was a significant factor in the inflation mess we’re in. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/236 "2022-07-29T03:36:29Z")
omg Tell us you _really_ don’t understand oil markets without telling us you really don’t understand oil markets… ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/237 "2022-07-29T03:46:30Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Tell us you _really_ don’t understand oil markets without telling us you really don’t understand oil markets… I understand that Biden shut down ANWR and Keystone. He’s created a toxic business environment for the oil/gas industry. The Department of Energy was created during the 70’s oil crisis to deal with this and they have failed under this administration. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/238 "2022-07-29T03:50:40Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Biden shut down ANWR Bullshit > **[Only oil company that bid for ANWR tract gives up its lease](https://www.ktoo.org/2022/06/03/only-oil-company-that-bid-for-anwr-tract-gives-up-its-lease/)** > > Regenerate Alaska, a unit of Australia-based 88 Energy Ltd., relinquished the tract it acquired for over $770,000, federal officials said. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/239 "2022-07-29T03:58:05Z")
> [@squeegee](#): > > Bullshit The New York times June 1, 2021 (paywalled) [Biden Suspends Drilling Leases in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/01/climate/biden-drilling-arctic-national-wildlife-refuge.html) - WASHINGTON — The Biden administration on Tuesday suspended oil drilling leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, unspooling a signature achievement of the Trump presidency and delivering on a promise by President Biden to protect the fragile Alaskan tundra from fossil fuel extraction. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2022, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/240 "2022-07-29T04:00:41Z")
Nobody wanted the leases [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738.md?page=13)