# Inflation is not currently a menace **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 8, 2021, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738 "2021-12-08T22:40:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/261 "2022-08-11T00:57:14Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Saying there was “Zero inflation last month” is false. > > Zero increase is different than zero inflation. Well by that reasoning, there’s almost NEVER “zero inflation”, right? If you want the phrase “zero inflation” to carry only the meaning “an annual inflation rate of 0.0%”, then the phrase can almost never be used at all. I thought it was pretty clear that what Biden meant by his use of it: namely, that prices did not inflate (increase) at all last month. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/262 "2022-08-11T01:05:55Z")
So why didn’t he say something like “inflation is trending downward, in fact a half point in July”? “Zero inflation” is just nonsense. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/263 "2022-08-11T01:15:47Z")
Well, if what he said is in fact seriously confusing to a lot of people, then that’s a valid reason to suggest finding a different way to express it. If it’s just you who are bothered by it, though, then I don’t think it’s such a big deal, as you have access to the wisdom of Dopers like RitterSport to resolve the confusion. Thanks, RitterSport! 😀 ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/264 "2022-08-11T01:28:13Z")
Here’s an article that might explain things. > **[Republicans Are Outraged at Joe Biden for Accurately Describing the Economy](https://slate.com/business/2022/08/biden-zero-inflation-republicans-economy.html)** > > There have now been two consecutive news cycles of negative tweets. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/265 "2022-08-11T01:28:40Z")
I don’t understand what you mean by “half of point in July”. Prices were flat in July. The annual inflation rate was down 0.6% from the previous month, not 0.5%, right? If your 0.5% is meant to refer to the 0.6% actual decrease, it sounds like you think he should undersell the decrease in inflation. Do I have that right? ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/266 "2022-08-11T01:30:02Z")
Oh, I see. It’s just the latest right wing misinformation. @D_Anconia, you should improve your news sources. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/267 "2022-08-11T01:43:46Z")
Lol, love this. Watching @D_Anconia flap around like a fish trying to convince us he doesn’t understand the difference between June 1 2022 - June 30 2022 and June 2021 - June 2022 wasn’t the Wednesday night I planned for, but it’s the one I will take. 😀 ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/268 "2022-08-11T02:26:20Z")
It is true that the month-over-month CPI inflation rate was 0% for July. However… Almost all of that decrease came from decreasing costs for gas, fuel oil, and natural gas. Airline tickets and new car prices also came down. On the other hand, electricity is up 15.6%, food is up 10.9% (the largest increase since 1979), shelter is up 5.7%, and used cars are up 5.7%. Core inflation is up 5.9%. Notice a difference? Why is one group down and the other up? Well, the first group is far more elastic than the second, and the U.S. is in a recession. The second group of items is stuff is made up of recession-resistant goods, and they are still inflating. The fact that new car prices are dropping while used car prices increase is another recession signal. In addition, airline prices are affected by lower fuel prices, and seasonally prices generally decline towards the end of summer as vacation season ends. Also, one ‘price’ for air travel is delays, and air travel is a mess right now. Ticket prices may have come down a bit to compensate. > **[United States Inflation Rate - December 2022 Data - 1914-2021 Historical](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi)** > > The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a sixth straight month to 6.5% in December of 2022, the lowest since October of 2021, in line with market forecasts. It follows a 7.1% reading in November. Energy cost increased 7.3%, well below 13.1% in... Gas, oil and natural gas have fallen because the futures prices are falling - a sign that the markets expect further slowdowns in the economy. Also, the producer price index went UP from last month, from 11% to 11.3%. Producer inflation leads consumer inflation, so that’s not good. So the inflation news isn’t the big win Biden is portraying it as. All the stuff people can’t do without are still inflating, and more rapidly than they did ladt month. The stuff that’s more optional is falling because the economy is shrinking. Oil and gas are declining because the markets are now pricing in a recession. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/269 "2022-08-11T03:30:03Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > So the inflation news isn’t the big win Biden is portraying it as. ? What “big win” portrayal? [The Reuters article](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/biden-says-inflation-may-be-easing-people-are-still-hurting-2022-08-10/) containing the “zero inflation” quote that D\_Anconia reopened this thread to complain about put it like this: > [@](#): > > # Biden says inflation may be easing but people are ‘still hurting’ > > “We’re seeing some signs that inflation may be beginning to moderate,” Biden said after a report showing that consumer prices stayed the same in July. “People were still hurting, but zero inflation last month.” […] > > Biden, who is also working to pass a bill on taxes, climate and healthcare called the Inflation Reduction Act, cautioned that his administration may face setbacks in its goal to cut inflation. > > “Now I want to be clear, with the global challenges we face, from the war in Europe to disruption of supply chains and pandemic shutdowns in Asia, we could face additional headwinds in the months ahead,” he said. “Our work is far from over.” If we’re identifying sources of misinformation and misrepresentation about the current economic situation, it doesn’t seem to me that Biden’s remarks are even close to being in the top ten. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/270 "2022-08-11T03:45:08Z")
When the yearly inflation rate decreases to “only” 8.5%, the difference between .5 and .6 is negligible to people IRL. Especially when it comes to food at 10.9% and shelter at 5.7%. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 10:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/271 "2022-08-11T10:01:18Z")
@Sam_Stone, you seem to be arguing against things no one here said, and Biden didn’t say. I’m not sure why. Core inflation was up, so the Fed will probably continue raising rates. @D_Anconia, if the annual inflation rate went down by 0.4% and Biden said it was “half a point”, you’d be all over him for overselling it. If he said “inflation is trending downward, in fact half a point in July”, RW media would rightfully point out that it was flat in July and still up over 8% from last year, and you’d be all over him for that. I understand that nothing he could have said would actually satisfy you. That is irrelevant to your errors here, which you should have the courtesy to acknowledge. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/272 "2022-08-11T11:35:21Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Apparently, inflation is not a menace. According to Biden, it was zero in July. > > [Biden says inflation may be easing but people are ‘still hurting’ | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/biden-says-inflation-may-be-easing-people-are-still-hurting-2022-08-10/) Of course, you mean [the CPI according to the US Labor Department as reported by Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/biden-says-inflation-may-be-easing-people-are-still-hurting-2022-08-10/), which was linked in your article, and did indeed state that: > [@](#): > > U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July due to a sharp drop in the cost of gasoline, delivering the first notable sign of relief for weary Americans who have watched inflation climb over the past two years. If you wanted to present Biden as the one who was clueless, take care to read the articles you cite. Now where would you like to walk your error back to? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/273 "2022-08-11T11:37:07Z")
May, 2021. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/274 "2022-08-11T13:24:59Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > When the yearly inflation rate decreases to “only” 8.5%, the difference between .5 and .6 is negligible to people IRL. I’m trying to understand what could possibly make the above seem like a valid criticism. Maybe not understanding how annualized rates work? The price increases already happened. They’re not going to revert. If they _stop_, the annualized rate will stay elevated until the past increases drop off. Two more months of “zero inflation” would still leave us at an annualized rate of 7.7%. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/275 "2022-08-11T14:53:39Z")
> [@Ruken](#): > > I’m trying to understand what could possibly make the above seem like a valid criticism. Maybe not understanding how annualized rates work? I guess he’s rooting for a massive _deflation_, which would be the only way to get the 12-month trailing number to 0%. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/276 "2022-08-11T16:49:26Z")
> **[Inflation Cooled in July, Welcome News for White House and Fed (Published 2022)](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/10/business/economy/july-inflation-biden-fed.html)** > > Prices have increased rapidly since last year, but barely budged in July — a positive development, though not yet enough for a victory lap. > [Biden said] “We’re seeing a stronger labor market where jobs are booming and Americans are working, and we’re seeing some signs that inflation may be beginning to moderate.” … > > The slower price increases are also likely to reassure the Federal Reserve, which has been waiting for any sign that inflation is starting to moderate. But central bankers are likely to see this as a first step in the right direction rather than a definitive victory, because the cost of many goods and services continued to pick up rapidly even as gas and travel-related price declines pulled overall inflation lower. > > “On the surface, this is good news for the Fed,” said Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights. “This is the first baby step toward the moderation they want to see on a regular basis.” No one is declaring victory, and times are still bad for many. > For many Americans who are struggling to adjust their lifestyles to rapidly climbing costs at the grocery store and dry cleaners, an annual inflation rate that is still more than four times its normal speed is unlikely to feel like a big improvement, even as lower gas prices and rising pay rates do offer some relief. We need a year of 0.6% drops to go back to a desired number. Any number of disasters may occur before then. Maybe the Republicans will continue to vote against an insulin cap, a $19-27 monthly decrease in family costs. Have to wait and see. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2022, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738/277 "2022-08-11T22:19:16Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Also, the producer price index went UP from last month, from 11% to 11.3%. Producer inflation leads consumer inflation, so that’s not good. So, this appears to be incorrect. PPI fell 0.5% last month. Cite: [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/11/producer-price-index-july-2022-.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/11/producer-price-index-july-2022-.html) Looks like futures are now predicting a 50bps rise by the Fed. I think it was 75 bps before the CPI and PPI prints. Falling CPI and PPI may be good from an inflation perspective, but may be early indicators of a recession, which I agree is not good. Here’s hoping for a soft landing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/inflation-is-not-currently-a-menace/955738.md?page=13)