# Intelligence reports on WoMD and why Bush pushed thsi war. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 28, 2003, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758 "2003-04-28T20:07:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/bbe5ce/32.png) [@X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/X_Slayer_ALE)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/1 "2003-04-28T20:07:21Z")
There have been several threads of late that call Bush a liar about using Weapons of Mass Destruction as the basis for attacking Iraq. Some threads even dabated the possibility of impeachment. Some threads call to question why hasnt there been any WoMD found yet. And the biggest eyeball-roller of all are all those false alarms about finding posiible evidence of this and that only to come out as a false alarm. Taken individually, it does prosper a doubt in the presidents motives. However, i just realized something (other than the fact that its been only a couple of weeks that the search for WoMD has been intense). We are getting a lot of false alarms on a lot of sites. There were a thousand sites that intelligence has determined are high probable areas to find WoMD and as they are being investigated, the locals are voluntarily giving more probable sites to be investigated. So far, all are false alarms, **but** all tested positive to begin with. Now follow me on this. Before the war, all of these intelligence data was gathered secretly and from the outside. Whether by informant or intercepted documentation or secret testing, all were determined to be highly suspicious. These were the sites that were supposed to be inspected by Blix and associates but were coming up false. Why are there so many of these suspicious sites? Why were the Iraq regime hiding these sites even if they would turn up false? Why are these sites testing positive preliminarily and then coming up false under further scrutiny? Its not that these things are coming up false but their number. If there no WoMD, we shouldnt be finding false ones either at least not this many in just a few weeks. In the old shell game, you have a ball and there are 3 shells. The trick is to find the ball in the right shell but it is constantly moved around and thats only if the game is legit. Some games, all 3 shells are empty. In a con game, only one shell is opened to reveal no ball. A legit game would show the ball after a missed try. These false alarms are the shells. If the inspectors find a shell, they would test false and mark a ding on intelligence data. Eventually, no one would believe the data being given to the inspectors thru all the false alarms. I submit that this may prove to be an opportunity of plausible deniability for the president shrub. Since there are a lot of false alarms, he can say with credibility that his intelligence may have overstated the WoMD threat. Given the uncooperative nature of Saddam and all of the sites that needed to be verified, it would be put on Saddams shoulders that this war was initiated and since we may not have anything but his DNA, he wont be defending himself or his regime. I dont believe the Iraqi people will be giving Saddam a 100 percent approval anytime soon. Shrub can say he didnt lie, but was misinformed and he decided to err on the side of safety for the American people. counter-thoughts anyone? ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/2 "2003-04-28T20:35:06Z")
> [@](#): > > Why are there so many of these suspicious sites? Because Iraq society uses chemicals, like any other modern society. The pesticides in my garage would turn up positive for possible chemical agents. Can you explain why the garages or chemical plants of Iraq should be any different, or why anyone but the extreme paranoid fringe would find the number of such sites in a country the size of California to be suspicious ? ---
**Author:** ![X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/bbe5ce/32.png) [@X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/X_Slayer_ALE)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/3 "2003-04-28T20:56:35Z")
okay. I’ll explain why Iraq garages and chemical plants would be different from finding pesticide chemicals in any other modern country if you can explain why these pesticide chemicals are found near munitions and missiles. while youre at it, maybe you can explain why you need a mobile laboratory to make pesticides and why bury it in sand along with hundreds of thounsands of dollars worth of equipment if youre not using it? BTW, I dont know what the heck you have in your garage and what kind of insects are prowling around your neighborhood but the stuff in my garage is never going to false positively test for nerve gas. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/4 "2003-04-28T21:11:39Z")
A false positive is a false positive. The fact that there are a number of false positive isn’t the same as finding even ONE ACTUAL positive, which still hasn’t happened. If this is what you’re relying on to prove Iraq had chemical weapons, the argument is pretty screwed. I’m pretty sure Bush used the shell-game analogy, actually, and he certainly used the same idea: it was said that the inspectors were being spied upon, were infiltrated by Iraqi agents, were talking to agents posing as scientists… a lot of allegations along those lines, but none were ever backed up by anything. > [@](#): > > he can say with credibility that his intelligence may have overstated the WoMD threat. Some of it did, though spinning it (usually by omitting details) was common. But some of the intelligence stated the threat for what it was: negligible. Bush went out there are said for dead certain not just that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons, but said or strongly implied it had HUGE amounts and had the intent and capability to use it. And he continued to harp on the nuclear threat even after the two pieces of evidence that propped the accusation up - the aluminum tubes and the Niger yellow-cake documents - were found to be complete bullshit. If people decide he’s been dishonest, there’s really no way out. That’s why the arguments shifted so much; because in case nothing was found in the way of weapons, extra justifications (freedom for the Iraqis, peace in Israel) had to exist. ---
**Author:** ![urban1a](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/e47c2d/32.png) [@urban1a](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/urban1a)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/5 "2003-04-28T21:20:44Z")
X-Slayer. According to this New York Times article (free registration may be required), the barrels found are NOT chemical weapons (again): > [@](#): > > Earlier today, Lt. Col. Ted Martin of the 10th Cavalry said one of a dozen 55-gallon drums in an open field had tested positive for cyclosarin, a nerve agent, and for a blister agent that could have been mustard gas. He said his soldiers had also found two mobile labs containing equipment for mixing chemicals. The labs had been looted by the time the soldiers arrived. > > But in an interview tonight, Capt. Ryan Cutchin, the leader of Mobile Exploitation Team Bravo, or MET Bravo, said that after surveying the site, near the northern Iraqi town of Bayji, his team believed that the earlier reports were wrong. > > “Our tests showed no positive hits at all,” he said. > > The mobile labs were definitely “not labs,” Captain Cutchin said. The vehicles MET Bravo found were “probably for decontamination or some kind of fuel filling, consistent with the rockets found at the site,” he said. . As far as those chemicals in your garage, of course, they could have false positives. The equipment the soldiers have only look for specific chemical signatures, not weapons themselves. As long as that pesticide in your garage has one of those chemicals (precursors?) you would get a false alarm. Incidentally, it took me less than 1 minute to find this article using Google. Anyone could have done the same. Bob ---
**Author:** ![X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/bbe5ce/32.png) [@X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/X_Slayer_ALE)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/6 "2003-04-28T21:28:48Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Marley23 \* > \*\*A false positive is a false positive. The fact that there are a number of false positive isn’t the same as finding even ONE ACTUAL positive, which still hasn’t happened. If this is what you’re relying on to prove Iraq had chemical weapons, the argument is pretty screwed. \*\* no no no you dont understand. I am not offering the number of false positives as proof of the existance of WoMD. What I am suggesting is that all of the False positives will give Bush a credible excuse if no WoMD are ever found. Bush can say that given the intelligence reports and data that he had _prior_ to the war, there was good reason to suspect that Saddam had WoMD and that he was hiding something. Since the US wasnt allowed to check those suspected sites first hand and Saddam wasnt cooperating fully, this war was actually Saddam’s fault. For all we know, Saddam could have been no more than a great big Toxic waste dumper. Still not good news for the common Iraqi people but not really as bad as builder of Weapons of Mass Destruction. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/7 "2003-04-28T21:49:27Z")
> [@](#): > > Slayer said: > > What I am suggesting is that all of the False positives will give Bush a credible excuse if no WoMD are ever found. Wow, that’s a stretch. I’m pretty supportive of Bush and even I don’t buy that one. Sorry. Good luck with the anti-Bush crowd, though. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/8 "2003-04-28T22:15:16Z")
> [@](#): > > I’ll explain why Iraq garages and chemical plants would be different from finding pesticide chemicals in any other modern country if you can explain why these pesticide chemicals are found near munitions and missiles. Because those munitions and missiles are stationed in or near agricultural areas ? > [@](#): > > the stuff in my garage is never going to false positively test for nerve gas. You have no [Cholinesterase Inhibitor](http://docs.pesticideinfo.org/documentation4/ref_toxicity6.html#CholinesteraseInhibitors) based pesticides :eek:? What do you do, **hug** the life out of the little six-legged bastards ? 😛 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/9 "2003-04-28T23:06:49Z")
“What I am suggesting is that all of the False positives will give Bush a credible excuse if no WoMD are ever found.” Well, I doubt he’s dumb enough to directly use it as an excuse. The admin may just keep repeating that they are looking into suspicious sites and let the media highlight every episode that sounds good. The admin and the press will slowly stop talking about it and in 2 years the public will only remember how “suspicious” Iraq was and that there were so many possible stories one of them musta been real. (who’ll remember, we’ll be at war with Syria- No time for history lessons! 😉 ). ---
**Author:** ![X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/bbe5ce/32.png) [@X\_Slayer\_ALE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/X_Slayer_ALE)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2003, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/10 "2003-04-28T23:12:43Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Squink \* > \*\* You have no [Cholinesterase Inhibitor](http://docs.pesticideinfo.org/documentation4/ref_toxicity6.html#CholinesteraseInhibitors) based pesticides :eek:? What do you do, **hug** the life out of the little six-legged bastards ? 😛 \*\* well yah I probably have that…IF I had A hundred acres of infested plants to treat! California regulates those things for farm use only. My dinky little patch of crabgrass isnt going to need industrial strength highly toxic neurogens to control bugs with. Altho I will accept that that these things were found in agricultural areas to be a viable rationale. So what are they growing in these farms? Missile-tow? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/11 "2003-04-29T02:28:41Z")
“well yah I probably have that…IF I had A hundred acres of infested plants to treat! California regulates those things for farm use only.” Do you have a cite for that? IANAChemist but it seems that Cholinesterase Inhibitors are used in a wide range of products. A specific one ,Chlorpyrifos, was only recently banned in 2000: > [@](#): > > Among the hundreds of products containing Dursban **(a DOW chemical trade name for Chlorpyrifos -CarnalK)** are: Black Flag Liquid Roach and Ant Killer, Black Flag Roach Control System, Ortho Home Pest Insect Control, Ortho Lawn Insect Spray, Scotts Proturf Insect Control Plus Fertilizer, Sergeant’s Fast-Acting Flea & Tick Collar for Dogs, Sergeant’s Flea + Tick Collar, Hartz 330 Day Flea & Tick Collar for Dogs, Raid Ant Controller, Raid Home Insect killer Formula II, Raid Liquid Roach & Ant Killer Formula I and Raid Max Roach Bait III. from:[Hazardous Waste-Public Health and Environment](http://www.co.washington.mn.us/pubhlth/hdursban.html) Still sure the US weapons inspectors won’t give your garage a second look? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/12 "2003-04-29T03:10:15Z")
The fact remains that Saddam was willing to forego hundreds of billions of dollars due to sanctions and let his country be bombed willy-nilly rather than allow weapons inspectors free reign in his country. He was certainly hiding _something_. Maybe he just didn’t want the coalition to find his extension collection of porn. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/13 "2003-04-29T03:11:20Z")
‘extension collection’? Good Freudian slip. _extensive_ collection. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/14 "2003-04-29T03:38:47Z")
In all probability, nothing more will be required. The Bushistas have already laid the foundation for a long and fruitless search. That way, they win if they dont find anything, 'cause they just say they’re still looking. Sooner or later, something draws the attention away, the people go back to sleep. Of course, the Bushistas line reflects **Sam** ’s: there must be _something_! There just has to be something! So they figure poke thier nose around long enough, they find something, and then say “Yep, that’s where we thought it was!” And all this time, $250,000 is just sitting there on a table in a tent in Baghdad: first guy through the door to rat out one of Saddams massive stockpiles of Nasty gets the cash. Gotta be hundreds of people, given the massive nature of the stockpiles, who know how to find at least _one_. And yet no one shows up to claim the cash. I think that’s decidedly odd. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/15 "2003-04-29T03:56:37Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Sam Stone \* > \*\*The fact remains that Saddam was willing to forego hundreds of billions of dollars due to sanctions and let his country be bombed willy-nilly rather than allow weapons inspectors free reign in his country. He was certainly hiding _something_. > \*\* Boy, Sam, I hope the Bush administration had a better reason than that. Is there any country on Earth that wouldn’t qualify for a Bush invasion? Where’s all the secret evidence, anyway? ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/16 "2003-04-29T06:30:46Z")
Just FYI, but I recall reading in one of the major news outlets (either the _Associated Press_ or the _Los Angeles Times,_ can’t remember) that the reason the U.s. troops’ initial tests come up with so many false positives is because they’re designed to err on the side of caution. E.g., if that barrel over there has something suspicious in it, better to report a false positive and scare the troops into taking all precautions than the alternative. Or, in other words, lots of false positives don’t mean anything. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/17 "2003-04-29T07:45:17Z")
As is oft forgotten, the chances of a single positive test being an actual true positive are NOT based solely on the accuracy rate of test. It is also contingent on 1) the true percentage of actual positives in the population of things being tested and 2) the size of the population of things being tested. Basically, that means that even with an extremely accurate test (say, 99% accurate), the chances of any given positive test truly being positive are actually counter-intuitively low when the ratio of true positives is low compared the number of tests being done. That, then, is why it is to be expected that there will be many cases in which initial positive tests turn out to be false alarms. Lots of tests are being done, and chances are that far far more tests are being done than there are actual WMD in the population of things being tested. ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/18 "2003-04-29T11:45:42Z")
Of course Apos it is also true that if you are testing for something that does not exist, but which you never claimed to be anything but very hard to find, you can just go on offering the excuse that a true positive is going to be rare for more or less forever (forever in the public mind being a couple months till everyone’s forgotten about the issue) and the fact that you never come up with a single true positive will be lost in all the talk about positives [sub]that, just quietly, turn out to be false[/sub] > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Sam Stone \* > \*\*The fact remains that Saddam was willing to forego hundreds of billions of dollars due to sanctions and let his country be bombed willy-nilly rather than allow weapons inspectors free reign in his country. He was certainly hiding _something_. > > Maybe he just didn’t want the coalition to find his extension collection of porn. \*\* You gotta get more into the despotic ruler mindset, Sam. Any number of despots will gladly put their people through the seven rings of hell for their own sake. Dictators who are rolling in gold while their country lies in economic ruin are two a penny. You can bet Saddam never missed a meal due to sanctions and that he gave not a damn for starving children. And ultimately, he never gave up, never stepped down, even as US forces were on the outskirts of Baghdad and it was obvious that his country was going to be laid bare to inspectors, like it or not. So the suggestion that he was motivated by a desire purely to hide WMD just doesn’t hold water. Who the fuck knows what drives the mind of someone like Saddam, but you cannot apply logic as you attempt to do. Bush and his team and their arselicking camp followers (hello Johnny Howard) are very very careful never to even acknowledge the possibility that there may be no WMD and always carefully phrase their comments so that the existence of WMD is the unstated assumption. Either they have very clear evidence (but if they had that, they’d have revealed it long ago) or they are spinning like tops, and I know which my money is on. But I am also quite certain that the average joe takes on board Bush’s unstated assumption (that WMD exist) to a much greater extent than joe would take on board the real doubts put forward by doves and sceptics and other suspicious and untrustworthy characters. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/19 "2003-04-29T12:09:40Z")
A quarter of a million dollars. Just sitting there. All a guy’s gotta do is walk in and say “The warehouse full of nuclear anthrax nerve gas is at 2256 Saddam Blvd.” No more calls, we have a winner. Now, we _know_, do we not, Usual Suspects, that there are massive stockpiles of such in Iraq. Our Leader has said so, has super duper secret intelligence. Of course, really super duper intelligence comes from more than one source, confirming its super-duperness. All of these sources affirm absitively and posolutely that these nasty WMD’s exist, in “massive stockpiles”, yet not one can tell us _where_ they are. Must be at least a hundred guys who can rat out these locations. Out of that number, not one steps forward to claim the boodle. Not one. Because they are all so intensely loyal to Saddam’s memory, they will not stain his legacy by ratting him out for mere money? Seems unlikely. Iraqis just don’t like money? Please. Help me out here, Usual Suspects. After all this time, why hasn’t at least one knowledgeable snitch stepped forward to grab the goodies? What previously unknown principle of human motivation is at work here? The one I keep coming back to is nobody is selling the information because no one has anything to sell. I’m sure you guys have a much better explanation, since you are so much smarter than me, and all. How come nobody has claimed the money? Phone should be ringing off the hook at CIA. Ought to be a line a block long outside that tent in Baghdad, don’t you think? Walk in, rat out, badabing, you’re rich. And yet…no takers. Kindly explain this extraordinary fact. Take your time. ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2003, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758/20 "2003-04-29T12:38:50Z")
There’s a million bucks out there for anyone who can dowse or prove they are psychic, elucidator. No one’s ever claimed the money. Many have tried. All have failed. Belief in psychics and dowsers is not hard to find. Indeed it would seem if anything to be growing. Don’t hold your breath for your logic to be something that many people find convincing. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/intelligence-reports-on-womd-and-why-bush-pushed-thsi-war/171758.md?page=2)