# Interesting - COVID-19 predictions by state (U of Washington study)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-covid-19-predictions-by-state-u-of-washington-study/850751>\
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone\
**Tags:** covid-quarantine\
**Created:** [March 31, 2020, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-covid-19-predictions-by-state-u-of-washington-study/850751 "2020-03-31T18:35:14Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-covid-19-predictions-by-state-u-of-washington-study/850751/1 "2020-03-31T18:35:14Z")

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> **[IHME | COVID-19 Projections](https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)**
>
> Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

Basically it forecasts hospital bed needs, icu bed needs and ventilator needs, as well as cases and deaths by state and by day.

So you can look at say… New York and see that they predict 336 deaths today, as well as the numbers of ventilators, ICU beds and regular beds needed, and any deficits.

It’s interesting- some states like New York are predicted to get hammered, while others like Texas and California are projected not to have it so bad. I’m curious as to why that might be? Doesn’t really seem to follow a blue/red state or a north/south/east/west divide either.

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**Author:** ![Rebo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rebo/32/13005_2.png) [@Rebo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rebo)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-covid-19-predictions-by-state-u-of-washington-study/850751/2 "2020-03-31T18:38:07Z")

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Wow. It says in Texas it won’t peak until mid-May.

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**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\
**Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-covid-19-predictions-by-state-u-of-washington-study/850751/3 "2020-03-31T19:45:34Z")

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Just an FYI: between yesterday and today, a lot of states changed in terms of their peak date, ICU usage/shortfall, etc. It’s a fluid situation, the model basically can’t predict how well humans will socially distance and explicitly makes rosy assumptions there, and we’re still learning a ton about how the virus itself behaves. So if the data is meaningful to you, check back often!