# Interesting podcast conversation between Sam Harris and Charles Murray (of "Bell Curve" fame)

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052>\
**Category:** The BBQ Pit\
**Created:** [April 23, 2017, 9:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052 "2017-04-23T09:21:23Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 13

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**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/241 "2017-04-25T05:52:20Z")

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> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#):
>
> The _best_ sprinters are from Jamaica. Pretty consistently, in fact. What, _specifically_, about Jamaican genes causes them to be such good sprinters?
> 
> Same question about all other nations that have a specific sport or discipline they are known for excelling at - and there are quite a few.
> 
> Bonus points if you catch the head-slapper “duh” answer as to why certain states seem to excel in certain sports that have taken on cultural significance there.

Sprinting isn’t important in the USA? NFL pays a good amount of money for those who got that 40 time. Nah. It’s 100% culture.

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**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/242 "2017-04-25T06:02:51Z")

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> [@GIGObuster](#):
>
> And yes, as I suspected one of the reason that example of yours is considered is because one finding was that also for the same incidents white kids also got it easier than the minorities.
> 
> [Are Black Students Unruly? Or is America Just Racist?](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/21/are-black-kids-unruly-or-is-america-just-racist.html)
> 
> **What it should be obvious** : you got your idea from the spin coming from extremely right wing sources, and possibly coming from people with very unsavory and bigoted agendas.

Riiight. You do understand that I’m a Democrat? And not one of those people who says he’s a Democrat, but ends up voting for Republicans for national office. I \*always \*vote for, contribute to, and volunteer for, Democrats. (However, I was for Hillary and not Bernie.)

Let’s note also that your response about white kids getting it easier than minorities is surely true in the aggregate, but a non sequitur. It has nothing to do with whether suspending kids from school less will keep them out of prison later, a very dubious proposition.

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**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/243 "2017-04-25T06:12:49Z")

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> [@octopus](#):
>
> Sprinting isn’t important in the USA? NFL pays a good amount of money for those who got that 40 time. Nah. It’s 100% culture.

The NFL pays a good amount of money for those who can sprint well, sure. But is there an ingrained culture that says, “[If you want to be a successful athlete, the best way to do it is by going into sprinting](https://thewire.in/60774/genes-jamaica-actn3-olympics/)”?

> [@](#):
>
> What needs to be remembered is that at a population level, there will be enrichments (or overrepresentations) for genetic traits. Let’s take the example of Jamaican sprinters. Most Jamaicans are of West African descent (having been brought centuries ago to the West Indies as bonded or slave labor). This population has an enrichment for SNPs like ACTN3 or ACE1 that build fast-twitch muscles, and helps in sprinting. Let’s say this is present in 50% of these populations compared to a 5% worldwide average prevalence (these are hypothetical, exaggerated numbers, but would be considered HUGE overrepresentations for a geneticist).
> 
> This means about a million and a half Jamaicans have this mutation. But perhaps only a few hundred of them would ever be able to actually run 100 meters in the 10-second-range, if they were spotted early enough and spent years in single-minded training. That is because this gene is a necessary requirement for sprinting but is not in itself sufficient. This tiny number then is less than 0.1% of the population and statistically insignificant. Yet Jamaica produces an endless stream of superb sprinters. That is because the success of a few has resulted in a culture of sprinting, and a system that identifies and trains sprinters very successfully. You have an ecosystem for sprinting success. Jamaica massively outperforms the much larger population of all of West Africa in sprinting, where the genetic advantage is actually endemic.
> 
> Now, let’s take a very large population – India’s. There might be a strong selection bias against, say, the ACTN3 SNP or other SNPs that help make great sprinters. So using those same imaginary numbers, we can use a number like 1% of the population with the mutation, which is a huge underrepresentation of the worldwide average. But for a larger population, that will mean a huge number of people (over 15 million, more than five-times the population of Jamaica) with this mutation. Now genetically normalised, there will be 10-times as many people in India who can potentially run a 10-second 100-meter race – but only if they were identified early enough and entered an appropriate lifetime of training and conditioning.

Genetics play a role. Culture, training, environment, and hard work play a far, _far_ greater role. The same is true of IQ.

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**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/244 "2017-04-25T06:15:42Z")

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> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#):
>
> The NFL pays a good amount of money for those who can sprint well, sure. But is there an ingrained culture that says, “[If you want to be a successful athlete, the best way to do it is by going into sprinting](https://thewire.in/60774/genes-jamaica-actn3-olympics/)”?
> 
> Genetics play a role. Culture, training, environment, and hard work play a far, _far_ greater role. The same is true of IQ.

A far far greater role? I don’t see how that’s provable.

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**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/245 "2017-04-25T06:16:23Z")

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> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> (1)  
> **Correlation:** The number of times a poor black boy is suspended in high school is strongly correlated with the likelihood he will do a stint in prison by age 21.
> 
> **Proposed Solution:** Stop suspending teenage black boys so much, and voila: they’ll be less likely to end up in prison later.
> 
> **What Should Have Been Obvious:** The high school suspensions and later imprisonments are not cause-effect at all. They are both effects of criminal behavior, markers for “juvenile delinquent” personalities.

Here, let me simplify that last paragraph:

“What should have been obvious: black people are inherently more criminal.”

I strongly recommend making that your signature for the next litle while. See how well it goes over. 🙂

Seriously, if you can’t see how insanely racist that statement is, or how absurdly premature that conclusion is, then you really should give David Duke a call, he might be able to help you work on your dog whistle technique.

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**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/246 "2017-04-25T06:19:04Z")

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> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> Riiight. You do understand that I’m a Democrat?

Speaking of non-sequiturs…

That has absolutely nothing to do or to protect you from stupid fake information that you are getting, as I pointed out, from dubious sources.

I could also had made a point that even claiming to be a democrat is not a safety feature to preventing one into falling for prejudice as you showed in the point you made. The point here is to show how corrosive Murray and others are to your being.

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**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/247 "2017-04-25T06:23:23Z")

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> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#):
>
> Here, let me simplify that last paragraph:
> 
> “What should have been obvious: black people are inherently more criminal.”
> 
> I strongly recommend making that your signature for the next litle while. See how well it goes over. 🙂
> 
> Seriously, if you can’t see how insanely racist that statement is, or how absurdly premature that conclusion is, then you really should give David Duke a call, he might be able to help you work on your dog whistle technique.

Bullshit. Learn to read. The comparison here is between black boys who get suspended many times from school, and black boys who do not. There is no black/white comparison involved! Jesus.

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**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/248 "2017-04-25T06:29:50Z")

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> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> Bullshit. Learn to read. The comparison here is between black boys who get suspended many times from school, and black boys who do not. There is no black/white comparison involved! Jesus.

Bullshit to you, you implied others when you mentioned " Stop suspending teenage black boys so much" That can not be said unless other teenage boys that are not black exist in that example of yours. And that is the case. Just so you know.

Really, are you trying to pretend that your example had no basis on a real issue that came because for the same incidents other kids are not punished the same, and that it is more complicated than what the _race_ colored glasses you are using are telling you?

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**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/249 "2017-04-25T06:44:05Z")

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> [@GIGObuster](#):
>
> Bullshit to you, you implied others when you mentioned " Stop suspending teenage black boys so much" That can not be said unless other teenage boys that are not black exist in that example of yours. And that is the case. Just so you know.
> 
> Really, are you trying to pretend that your example had no basis on a real issue that came because for the same incidents other kids are not punished the same, and that it is more complicated than what the _race_ colored glasses you are using are telling you?

I’m not litigating the issue of whether black kids are punished more harshly then white kids (which I’m sure depends on the school and is probably the most egregious in public schools in the Deep South with a majority white enrollment). The point is that the serious policy proposal was made that suspending these kids less will have a causative effect of making it less likely that they will go to prison later. If the ones ultimately going to prison are being railroaded (and that certainly happens, again especially in the Deep South), then how on Earth would refusing to suspend them in high school keep them from getting railroaded a few years later? It makes no sense whatsoever.

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**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/250 "2017-04-25T06:49:00Z")

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> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> Bullshit. Learn to read. The comparison here is between black boys who get suspended many times from school, and black boys who do not. There is no black/white comparison involved! Jesus.

My apologies, maybe you understand how I might get that from the context of what you were responding to, as **GIGO** rightfully points out.

But even then, it’s still a baseless conclusion, one that is not “obvious” by any stretch of the imagination. As has been pointed out, there’s a huge racial component in suspensions. A great many of them are not for things that indicate criminality in any meaningful way. Despite that, the correlation exists.

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**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 6:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/251 "2017-04-25T06:58:13Z")

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I appreciate the apology and in retrospect I can somewhat understand the confusion. But what mechanism of action would be involved to introduce a causation arrow of this type? The point is not just generally whether black kids are unfairly getting suspended too much, it’s a specific claim that suspending them too much is causing them to end up in prison later rather than those being co-correlates of something else.

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**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/252 "2017-04-25T07:00:17Z")

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> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> I’m not litigating the issue of whether black kids are punished more harshly then white kids (which I’m sure depends on the school and is probably the most egregious in public schools in the Deep South with a majority white enrollment). The point is that the serious policy proposal was made that suspending these kids less will have a causative effect of making it less likely that they will go to prison later. If the ones ultimately going to prison are being railroaded (and that certainly happens, again especially in the Deep South), then how on Earth would refusing to suspend them in high school keep them from getting railroaded a few years later? It makes no sense whatsoever.

> **[We can't trust common sense but we can trust science](https://phys.org/news/2016-02-common-science.html#jCp)**
>
> When a group of Australians was asked why they believed climate change was not happening, about one in three (36.5%) said it was "common sense", according to a report published last year by the CSIRO. This was the most popular reason for their...

> [@](#):
>
> common sense is actually nothing more than a deposit of prejudices laid down in the mind prior to the age of eighteen.

For some it takes longer, that is clear.

The point was that since doing so with white kids for the same incidents makes it less likely for them to do worse things it follows that doing **the same and fair thing** with black kids will affect them the same.

You are also missing what is going on at the same time, the criminalization of student discipline.

[https://thinkprogress.org/youth-incarceration-dropped-40-percent-but-most-still-detained-for-minor-offenses-5d9280201c15](https://thinkprogress.org/youth-incarceration-dropped-40-percent-but-most-still-detained-for-minor-offenses-5d9280201c15)

> [@](#):
>
> This continuing skew toward criminalizing student discipline is reflected in other statistics in the report. Nationwide as of 2010, “almost 60 percent of confined youth in the U.S. (41,877) were still detained and imprisoned for offenses that do not pose substantial threats to public safety. These include misdemeanors, drug use, non-criminal or status offenses (e.g., curfew violations, truancy, running away), failure to show up for parole meetings, and breaking school rules. Arguably, those 42,000 or so low-risk youth, who pose minimal public safety risks, face a fairly high risk of recidivating and losing their futures as productive citizens due to their incarceration experiences.”
> 
> A new quantitative analysis confirms that detaining more youths makes the crime rate worse. What’s more, the impact of criminalizing student discipline is not limited to detention. Students may be arrested, charged and even convicted for school disciplinary violations without spending time in jail, while discriminatory suspensions provide a frequent entrée into the criminal justice system.

As others point out, common sense sometimes leads us to do the wrong thing.

[https://thinkprogress.org/more-than-one-third-of-black-male-students-are-suspended-from-secondary-schools-a333309e8ca7](https://thinkprogress.org/more-than-one-third-of-black-male-students-are-suspended-from-secondary-schools-a333309e8ca7)

> [@](#):
>
> The report, focused only on middle and high school students, builds on other recent data analyses finding that suspensions fall disproportionately on minorities and the disabled. And it is one of 16 new research studies to analyze harsh punishment of school discipline violations that has been associated with what is known as the “school-to-prison pipeline,” in which students are funneled away from school and into the criminal justice system. One suspension doubles the risk of dropping out of school from 16 percent to 32 percent, and suspensions also increase the likelihood of arrests and juvenile detention. The new body of research finds that “harsh discipline policies increase the number of young people who are disengaged from school, which has damaging academic consequences and long-term economic and societal costs.” It cites an American Pediatrics Association policy that “schools with higher rates of out-of-school suspension and expulsion are not safer for students or faculty.”

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**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/253 "2017-04-25T07:12:52Z")

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> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> I appreciate the apology and in retrospect I can somewhat understand the confusion. But what mechanism of action would be involved to introduce a causation arrow of this type? The point is not just generally whether black kids are unfairly getting suspended too much, it’s a specific claim that suspending them too much is causing them to end up in prison later rather than those being co-correlates of something else.

But if we know that racism plays a non-trivial part in suspensions, and we know that suspensions correlate with prison time, why in god’s name would we assume that the co-correlation is inherent criminality? That doesn’t make any sense. It makes even less sense when you note that racism also plays a big part in arrests and sentencing.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/254 "2017-04-25T07:21:02Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> A new quantitative analysis confirms that detaining more youths makes the crime rate worse.

Oh dear. You are quoting the exact mindless pablum I was complaining about, that so badly conflates correlation with causation. This is exactly why I had to laugh at the claim that spurious correlation was the domain of the far right.

I would bet you anything that the same kind of “quantitative analysis” would “prove” that selling people ice cream just \*increases \*the rate of heat stroke. Ban ice cream, and heat stroke rates should plummet! Oy.

> [@](#):
>
> One suspension doubles the risk of dropping out of school from 16 percent to 32 percent, and suspensions also increase the likelihood of arrests and juvenile detention.

Did they randomize into test and control groups, and then suspend some kids and not suspend others, then follow them to see who drops out of school? Obviously not. So what this actually means is that if you look at the record of a high school dropout, they are twice as likely as a non-dropout to have a suspension on their record (although there’s still a 68 percent chance they will not). It would be shocking if this were \*not \*the case.

Ai yi yi, the innumeracy is rampant.

C’mon, guys: I know some of you, even some of the ones most bitterly opposing me throughout this thread, know better than this. Don’t stay silent just because this nonsense is coming from your “side”.

ETA:

> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#):
>
> But if we know that racism plays a non-trivial part in suspensions, and we know that suspensions correlate with prison time, why in god’s name would we assume that the co-correlation is inherent criminality? That doesn’t make any sense. It makes even less sense when you note that racism also plays a big part in arrests and sentencing.

I’ll ask again: what’s your plausible mechanism for causation here?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 7:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/255 "2017-04-25T07:34:32Z")

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> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> Did they randomize into test and control groups, and then suspend some kids and not suspend others, then follow them to see who drops out of school? Obviously not.

Obviously you are an ignorant, but that was known already.

> **[Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital and Future Crime: Evidence from...](https://www.nber.org/papers/w19102)**
>
> Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

> [@](#):
>
> In the first three columns, the sample includes all children in  
> the Chicago Public Schools. Therefore in the first three specifications we are comparing the high school completion rates of children incarcerated as juveniles to a control group from the same community that includes two groups: those without any juvenile court involvement and those with juvenile court involvement but who were not incarcerated as juveniles.

> [@](#):
>
> 6 Conclusions  
> Juvenile incarceration is expensive, with expenditures on juvenile corrections totalling $6 billion  
> annually in the US, and the average (direct) cost of a incarcerating a juvenile is $88,000 for a 12  
> month stay (Mendel, 2011). If juvenile incarceration either enhanced human capital accumula-  
> tion or deterred future crime and incarceration, a tradeoff could be considered. Rather, we find  
> that for juveniles on the margin of incarceration, such detention leads to both a decrease in high  
> school completion and an increase in adult incarceration, and it appears welfare enhancing to  
> use alternatives to juvenile incarceration. Illinois has an array of such policies, including elec-  
> tronic monitoring and well-enforced curfews that serve as substitutes for juvenile incarceration.  
> Indeed, these substitutes have been growing in popularity. Since our results are found when  
> these alternatives were in use, this suggests that their continued expansion could increase high  
> school graduation rates and reduce the likelihood of adult crime still further.

BTW I did check before you made your latest idiot move, you are very predictable.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/256 "2017-04-25T07:37:09Z")

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> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> ETA:
> 
> I’ll ask again: what’s your plausible mechanism for causation here?

Social isolation, decreased academic achievement leading to worse life outcomes, [correctional officers recognizing students as “troublemakers” after suspending them at school](http://www.justicepolicy.org/news/8775)… Lots of potential factors. Also: [it’s not just black kids](http://chicagopolicyreview.org/2014/03/26/discipline-and-punishment-how-school-suspensions-impact-the-likelihood-of-juvenile-arrest/).

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 9:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/257 "2017-04-25T09:12:30Z")

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It was framed on NPR as being about black kids.

In any case, you can speculate about why it might be causative, but Ockham’s Razor cuts the other way. It’s not plausible that kids, of whatever race, who are headed on a trajectory toward dropping out, would be no more likely than non-dropouts to do stuff along the way that gets them suspended. Even if your speculation has merit as one factor, it’s not of the magnitude they are stating as a precise ratio. That you can take to the bank.

This tangent all started because of an assertion that correlation was the province of the far right. Now you’re defending correlation mapped to causation in a highly speculative way, because you approve of the conclusion? This is so far from a sober, rigorous approach.

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**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/258 "2017-04-25T09:27:23Z")

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Let me try one more angle to illustrate how questionable this is. It’s no doubt also true that getting Fs is highly correlated with later dropping out. So hey: you’re the new principal and make a new policy that henceforth no Fs will be awarded. The result? Either the dropout rate won’t change, or your diplomas will become toilet paper.

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 9:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/259 "2017-04-25T09:29:12Z")

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> [@SlackerInc](#):
>
> I would actually be fine with that, if the school reform activists would also wait and see. But they have already ddecided that it is axiomatic that the inner-city black kids with low test scores have just as much innate potential for the kind of aptitude measured in those tests as the white kids out in the suburbs have. They proceed from that axiom to the theorem that the test scores only differ because educators are “failing” these students. If they would stop making that unfair smear of dedicated and hardworking teachers and administrators, I would be more than happy to drop the whole thing.

Really? Your own beliefs hinge on the beliefs and advocacy of school reform activists? That seems both very hard to believe and totally absurd.

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [April 25, 2017, 9:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/interesting-podcast-conversation-between-sam-harris-and-charles-murray-of-bell-curve-fame/785052/260 "2017-04-25T09:36:04Z")

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**SlackerInc** , you’ve expressed the belief that you have pride in your pale skin, light eyes, and Northern European heritage, and that pale skinned, light eyed Northern Europeans (and Asians) have superior genes, on average, for high intelligence.

It’s not credible that those two beliefs are not linked. You are human, after all. Lots of people really believe that some groups are inherently genetically superior in intelligence to other groups… almost all of them happen to believe that they personally are a member of one of those high intelligence groups. Do you think that’s a coincidence?

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