You want a sanction that would actually work? Stop buying Iranian oil. Selling oil is where the bad people on top get the money they use to do all of the bad things they do. Us selling other things to them is fine: Any money they spend buying food or bluejeans or music or whatever else is money they’re not using to buy weapons. But stop buying their oil.
Heck, it’d take longer to put in practice, but stop buying any oil. A lot of the worst problem-countries in the world get the power to cause problems from their oil, so we’d be hurting a lot of bad guys at once. And it’d drive down the price, so whatever oil they’re still able to smuggle out on the black market, or to nations not complying with the sanctions, won’t get them as much.
And as an added bonus in this particular case, if we stopped buying oil, we wouldn’t have to care what Iran is doing in Hormuz.
Like it or not, war and regime change does sometimes work against problematic countries. Nazi Germany and the empire of Japan in WW2. The Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia that overthrew the Khmer rouge. The war in Tanzania that overthrew Idi Amin. The war in Korea to remove the North Koreans from the South.
My understanding is that in order to have a stable liberal democracy you need a nation with the following things:
High per capita GDP
High levels of personal health (sick people are more authoritarian)
A highly educated population
A public that believes in civic values and participatory government
Things that make people desire authoritarianism are things like:
Large scale domestic crime
Tribal hatreds
Fears of internal or external threats
My understanding is that some peaceful revolutions like the ones in Spain or Portugal had a lot of the positive things, they just needed the dictator to die so they could transition to democracy.
When people are starting to economically struggle that makes revolution more likely, but a nation can just increase its oppression to prevent that from leading anywhere.
The issue with sanctions is that a sanctioned nation will just make sure the people who actually matter still have money. North Korea is heavily sanctioned. It has dealt with it by engaging in various international crimes to fund the leadership and fund their military.
Counterintuitively that’s by no means certain.
Apparently there’s a certain “sweet spot” of rising economic conditions that’s prime for revolution, the French revolution for example didn’t happen in the middle of the worst economic times of the period but sometime later, same for the 1848 revolutions which happened generally in places that had not been so affected by the previous years economic penuries.
And in Ireland during the Potato Famine there was no revolution, but the revolution came much later in far better economic conditions.
When the only thing you can think of is how you are going to eat today your mind is not free to plan revolutions.
When people have seen their material conditions improve and they felt they were promised a continued increase in standard of living, but then things start getting worse instead of continuing to improve, is when people are most prone to revolutions.
According to Davies’s hypothesis, persistent economic growth and advance lead to the development of psychological expectations that conditions will continue to improve. When such expectations are suddenly thwarted, individuals experience an intolerable gap between what they have come to expect and the realities of their circumstances. At this point, individuals are most likely to engage in collective revolutionary activity.
No; they noticed that people other than white men were being allowed to get ahead in life. So they decided to tear down the world out of spite. They are reactionaries, not revolutionaries. They want a less fair world, not a more fair one.
They are the sort of people who cause “problematic” regimes (like Trump); not the revolutionaries that overthrow such regimes.
Not that I agree that the bombing going on right now is right, but didn’t bombing work, with help from inside forces, in creating conditions for regime change in Libya and Iraq? Maybe that’s what the plan is here with Iran, but the Iranian government is more robust (and frustrating to our leaders) than those other cases?
“Revolutionaries” (as the Iran regime in fact claim to be) have a long and storied track record of claiming to be overthrowing a “problematic” regime only to institute one a dozen times worse.
No? Iraq was invaded and conquered in a failed attempt to turn it into a colony and steal its oil; while Libya became a chaotic mess with open-air slave markets. Bombing didn’t help anything.
Shouldn’t the real question here be what actions responsible members of the international community should be taking to force regime change in the United States?
Depends on what your goal was. The US goal was to stop those countries’ governents from exporting mischeif. They largely succeeded in that. Much more slowly & expensively in Iraq than planned.
Doing anything helpful for those countries’ populace was nowhere on the goal sheet.
Should civilized countries have that on their goal sheets? Sure. Did we? No. Is the US government now a lot less civilized than the low bar of 20 years ago? You bet. We’re now apeing Russia at its worst.
And yet, specially in the case of Iraq, mischief WAS exported, and in massive quantities, just not by the deposed governments.
So all in all the amount of mischief generated was far more than before the U.S. intervention, if the purpose was to lower it it failed miserably.
The Holodomor,[a] also known as the Ukrainian famine,[8][9][b] was a massive man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians
Something can be bad without being apeing Russia at its worst. “Russia at its worst” is starving millions of Ukranians on purpose.
I mentioned South Africa upthread as a case were there was regime change and sanctions.
You’ll know better than me about it of course, but I had the impression that the sanctions did not reach the level that utterly impoverishes a country and that cultural boycotts had more effect than economic sanctions.
Did the U.S. for example apply sanctions?.
I said “Bombing didn’t help anything”. The goal wasn’t to help anything, the goal was to kill Muslims and brown people at random because that’s politically popular in the US. It worked too, directly and indirectly we killed a great many of them. But that wasn’t helping people. We never intended to help people.