# Into the Great Wide Open: the Dem Race after Mississippi **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 12, 2008, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148 "2008-03-12T20:07:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/41 "2008-03-13T18:06:49Z")
[QUOTE=Freddy the Pig] Certainly. See the Democratic National Committee [Delegate Selection Rules](http://a9.g.akamai.net/7/9/8082/v001/democratic1.download.akamai.com/8082/pdfs/2008delegateselectionrules.pdf), Rule 13, “Fair Reflection of Presidential Preference”.This rule has been in place since 1984. If one candidate won all of the seats in a particular primary or caucus in any election since then, it was because no other candidate got over the 15% threshold (not uncommon after only one candidate is left standing!), not because the rules were different. [/QUOTE] Excellent. Thanks, **Freddy**! ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/42 "2008-03-13T18:59:46Z")
Why [Obama can’t win Pennsylvania](http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=888). And why [winning Pennsylvania won’t be enough for Clinton](http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=03&year=2008&base_name=clinton_08jerry_brown_92). ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/43 "2008-03-13T19:47:32Z")
Anyone get the feeling Hillary knows something that we don’t know, and that’s why she’s still going full steam ahead? I mean, I can understand her having the never-say-die mentality, but she’s going beyond that with all the resources she’s pumping into PA. It makes me think she’s going to ask the superdelegates to rescue her if she reaches some critical threshold of votes, and she has some behind-the-scenes inkling that they will come through for her. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/44 "2008-03-13T20:00:33Z")
[QUOTE=you with the face] Anyone get the feeling Hillary knows something that we don’t know, and that’s why she’s still going full steam ahead? [/quote] No. > [@](#): > > I mean, I can understand her having the never-say-die mentality, but she’s going beyond that with all the resources she’s pumping into PA. Because she’s trying to make the point that she can win all the “big” states and Obama can’t, and this is the last “big” state there is in the primaries. > [@](#): > > It makes me think she’s going to ask the superdelegates to rescue her if she reaches some critical threshold of votes Of course she is, and she already has been. > [@](#): > > and she has some behind-the-scenes inkling that they will come through for her. As someone who is _somewhat_ privy to _some_ of the behind-the-scenes chatter because I work in the political arena and my boss is closely tied to Hillary’s campaign, I can tell you that that is not what’s being floated around. Private support is more heavily towards Obama, they’re just trying to let this thing play out before making public endorsements. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/45 "2008-03-13T20:01:41Z")
[QUOTE=you with the face] Anyone get the feeling Hillary knows something that we don’t know, and that’s why she’s still going full steam ahead? [/QUOTE] Not especially. Or at least nothing foreboding. I think that she and her people tell themselves that it still _might_ work out for them and, as long as people keep sending her checks, she may as well keep spending them in Pennsylvania, stalling for time and hoping for a news story to break that Obama once killed a baby and cooked it into a stew. When Romney was dumping millions of his own cash into the race, it seemed silly. As long as Clinton is spending other people’s money (and her fundraising shot up after Texas/Ohio)… why not? Aside from a concern about the party, that is and I think we can safely rule that out. She’s no doubt convinced that she’s the party’s best chance. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/46 "2008-03-13T22:28:08Z")
I suspect Hillary realizes it’s now or never. If she finishes second and Obama wins the Presidency, then she’ll be 68 in 2016, and by then nobody will be clamoring for another Clinton Administration anyway. If she finishes second and Obama loses: unlike the GOP, the Dems are hard on their second-place finishers. None in the current era (1976-now) have been their party’s standard-bearer later on, and only one was even the presumptive frontrunner the next time: Gary Hart in 1987, after having finished second to Mondale in 1984. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/47 "2008-03-13T22:44:27Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] If she finishes second and Obama loses: unlike the GOP, the Dems are hard on their second-place finishers. None in the current era (1976-now) have been their party’s standard-bearer later on, and only one was even the presumptive frontrunner the next time: Gary Hart in 1987, after having finished second to Mondale in 1984. [/QUOTE] Especially if her campaign for the nomination is perceived to have ruined Obama’s run for the Presidency by undercutting Obama, dividing the party and giving ammunition to the Republicans: then she’s toast for sure. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2008, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/48 "2008-03-14T19:07:25Z")
Obama’s doing well again in the daily trackers, up 50-42 in Rasmussen, and 50-44 in Gallup. Hillary had gotten the numbers to move her way just in time for the Ohio and Texas primaries, but her bounce seems to have worn off. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2008, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/49 "2008-03-14T19:21:45Z")
Excellent! Thanks for the update, **RT**. Also, [Wisconsin Superdelegate Endorses Barack Obama for President](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGB84L) > [@](#): > > Today Wisconsin superdelegate Melissa Schroeder endorsed Barack Obama for president. . . > > “After much consideration, I have decided to endorse Senator Barack Obama. My decision came down to electability and who I felt would do a better job of unifying this country for a common purpose. Obama’s message of hope and change has touched millions of voters in a way that I haven’t seen since the late 1960’s. People from every walk of life, young and the not so young, Democrats, Independents and some Republicans, are all rallying around a belief that change can happen if we want it bad enough. With Obama as our nominee, I am confident that this November we will increase our majority in the House and Senate and elect a Democrat to the White House.” ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2008, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/50 "2008-03-14T22:59:20Z")
I’m sure you all know by now that Obama is claiming that, if he loses PA by less than 10 percent, [it will actually be a “victory”.](http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_tells_major_donors_that.php) Well, that’s that, then. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2008, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/51 "2008-03-14T23:22:27Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] I’m sure you all know by now that Obama is claiming that, if he loses PA by less than 10 percent, [it will actually be a “victory”.](http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_tells_major_donors_that.php) Well, that’s that, then. 😃 [/QUOTE] Truth be told, he’s probably right. Being within 10 points in Pennsylvania would deny Clinton any real delegate lead and Obama would pick up the difference (and then some) in NC and Indiana. I snarked at Clinton framing it the same way before Ohio & Texas and continually moving the goalposts but then she WAS expected to take both states going into it and Obama’s Texas delegate win was a considerable coup given his polling numbers in mid-Feb. I don’t think that anyone has ever honestly expected Obama to win Pennsylvania so he may as well frame the spread now before Clinton raises expectations with a “Anything less than a 70% win for Obama is a terrible loss” remark. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2008, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/52 "2008-03-14T23:30:26Z")
IOW, that’s playing the same old game the same old way … ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2008, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/53 "2008-03-14T23:30:53Z")
More interesting is that Obama held a [lengthy interview earlier today](http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-obama-rezkomar15,0,2968927.story) about his dealings with Rezko. Now, _personally_, it’s not a big deal to me. Rezko had contributed a large amount to Obama’s early state runs and nothing to Obama’s US Senate run. I don’t believe he contributed to Obama’s presidental run but I’m not certain if the “Obama gives to charity” cases were returning presidental bid contributions or old state office run contributions. But the fact that the amount Obama revealed today is larger than previous amounts is sure to be a news story. No small coincidence I’m sure that Obama chose to do this on a late Friday afternoon, forty days before the next primary. > [@](#): > > Indicted Chicago businessman Antoin “Tony” Rezko was a more significant fundraiser for presidential candidate Barack Obama’s earlier political campaigns than previously known. Rezko raised as much as $250,000 for the first three offices Obama sought, the senator told the Tribune on Friday. > > Obama also said for the first time that his private real estate transactions with Rezko involved repeated lapses of judgment. The mistake, Obama said, was not simply that Rezko was under grand jury investigation at the time of their 2005 and 2006 dealings. “The mistake was he had been a contributor and somebody involved in politics,” he said. > > In an extensive interview that he hoped would quell the lingering controversy over his relationship with Rezko, Obama said that voters concerned about his judgment should view it as “a mistake in not seeing the potential conflicts of interest.” > > But he added that voters should also “see somebody who is not engaged in any wrongdoing . . . and who they can trust.” ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2008, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/54 "2008-03-14T23:37:26Z")
[QUOTE=ElvisL1ves] IOW, that’s playing the same old game the same old way … [/QUOTE] I’ve written lengthy and detailed posts about why I wouldn’t vote for Clinton that touched upon many facets of her campaigning and politics. That said, I never once said I wouldn’t vote for her because she’s tried to set expectations before a tough race. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2008, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/55 "2008-03-16T00:40:04Z")
Looks like [Obama picked up seven of Edwards’ 14 Iowa delegates](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080315/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_iowa_4;_ylt=AgfTsvPjR0oJ0gdvw64qOpwE1vAI), with Edwards’ supporters still hanging together to keep the other 7 in the Edwards column: > [@](#): > > Democratic Party projections said the results mean Obama increased by seven the number of delegates he collects from the state, getting a total of 23 compared to 14 for Clinton and seven for Edwards, with one to be decided. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2008, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/56 "2008-03-16T00:56:04Z")
And [Pelosi](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/03/15/pelosi-superdelegates-may-do-damage/) is putting her weight behind respecting the pledged delegate count. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2008, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/57 "2008-03-16T05:15:18Z")
So, Clinton is toast? She always seemed to me like God’s Own Rabid VP, but a POTUS? I didn’t think so. Ignoring her, or Obams’s, race or gender, she has long seemed to me as the Majority Whip From Hell Itself. Dump whoever the hell holds that position and let Hillary kick some Democrat ass and we will see some effing CHANGES made. It’s sad when people cannot see their correct niche. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2008, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/58 "2008-03-16T05:15:35Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Looks like [Obama picked up seven of Edwards’ 14 Iowa delegates](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080315/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_iowa_4;_ylt=AgfTsvPjR0oJ0gdvw64qOpwE1vAI), with Edwards’ supporters still hanging together to keep the other 7 in the Edwards column: [/QUOTE] In the end, Obama actually netted **[ten delegates](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/15/obama_wins_7_more_delegates_in.html?hpid=topnews)**, picking up 9 for himself, with Hillary **losing** one! And not only that, in addition to the 8 delegate swing that went Obama’s way in California nearly 2 weeks ago, that article also states that late today California announced that Clinton picked up 2 more delegates there, but Obama picked up _another_ 5, netting him 3 _more_. AND, Hillary’s great supporter in Pennsylvania, Governor Ed Rendell, admitted that Barack Obama would probably win Pennsylvania in the general election, as well! > [@Ed Rendell](#): > > “And interestingly, I think Senator Obama, if he’s the candidate, will run okay in some of those counties. There’s no question. Hillary Clinton is a better fit for those counties. Is a better fit for southwest Pennsylvania. But I think either one of them is going to carry the state in the fall.” > > [http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/17/pennsylvania-primary-lat\_n\_87069.html](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/17/pennsylvania-primary-lat_n_87069.html) This has been a great, great day!! ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2008, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/59 "2008-03-16T05:37:49Z")
**Shayna** , it’s long been said that, screw the Bears, the Cubs, the White Sox, the Blackhawks, the Wolves, or the Bulls; Chicago’s GREATEST spectator sport is POLITICS. After that post, you might as well just MOVE HERE! 😉 This is not to denigrate Sen Clinton, the product of a burb three away from my own so I feel some ownership. My time in NW Suburban Chicago politics taught me more than to vote for the favorite daughter. I can see what side the bread is buttered on. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2008, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148/60 "2008-03-16T05:47:59Z")
Is it just me, but does Obama seem to be laying low on PA? He was in Indiana today? I can understand the tactic of refusing to appear to take the bait that PA is super important, but he really would benefit from keeping it close there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/into-the-great-wide-open-the-dem-race-after-mississippi/441148.md?page=4)