# Investing today, increased return in 20 years **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 28, 2013, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854 "2013-09-28T04:36:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/21 "2013-09-28T16:54:43Z")
> [@Superhal](#): > > 1. Silver/gold coins: a dealer told me to buy coins from emerging markets like China. When their economy goes up, they will buy back their own coins at increased value. Interesting idea, but Chinese silver pandas are already selling for 30-50% over spot. The downside is that right now might be a peak for gold/silver prices. “_When_ the Chinese economy goes up”? Where do you think the Chinese economy is today? It’s _already_ way, way up. I’ve even seen on programs like Antiques Roadshow that the value of Chinese art and antiques is high now, because Chinese people are collectively buying up things from their past that come on the market in the West. And the gold and silver Panda coins are not collectibles, but just bullion. There’s no reason they should sell above spot. If anything, look for a way to short the Chinese economy or real estate market. Their economy is in a bubble and it’s going to crash sooner or later. The problem is that when it does, we’re going to be hurting here in the US as well. And as others said, you’re asking us to predict which collectibles are going to be valuable in twenty years. That’s impossible, especially since the market for collectibles runs in cycles. Perhaps today, for example, there’s a lot of demand for Tiffany lamps, but maybe there is a soft market twenty years from now. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/22 "2013-09-28T16:59:59Z")
Another thing. Don’t take advice about where the market is going for something from the person trying to sell it to you. Presumably the dealer who advised you to buy coins from emerging markets just happens to be selling such coins. Do you think that perhaps his advice might be a little self-serving? ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/23 "2013-09-28T17:02:42Z")
It all also depends whether you are thinking long-term or short-term. IMVH$O, all investment should be long-term. Trying to play day or week or month trader and outguess the market… buy lottery tickets instead. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/24 "2013-09-28T17:25:39Z")
Skylanders Get some of the rare series 1 and 2 right now. They are already kind of expensive but they’re going to be even more valuable in 20 years. Keep on the look out for “malformed” figurines as well. Plus hunting for them is fun. Some of the figurines are already worth hundreds of dollars at auction. They’re only going to go up from there! 😃 -drewtwo99, avid Skylander collector ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/25 "2013-09-28T17:27:21Z")
Plastics! 🙂 Oh wait, old advice. 3D printing that uses those plastics and many other materials! As I have seen, the sage advise is to wait a little until the next cheaper and faster generation systems come. > **[Now Is Not the Time to Invest in 3D Printing](https://investorplace.com/2013/07/now-is-not-the-time-to-invest-in-3d-printing/)** > > The 3D printing sector could see explosive growth ... eventually. For now, it still has a few hurdles to clear before it can see mass-market adoption. > [@](#): > > I’ve compared 3D printing to inkjet printers in the past (a printing technology that went from commercial to consumer level and took off), but what it’s really reminding me of at the moment is the video game industry circa the early 1980s. > > Video game consoles had recently made the leap from garages to store shelves and were the stars of the Consumer Electronics Show. A bunch of companies were rushing consoles to market to take advantage of the hype, consumers were pumped and anticipating being able to play arcade-quality games in their homes. Instead, they got crappy 8-bit graphics and expensive games that hardly resembled their arcade counterparts (even if you squinted). > > The result was a massive crash in the industry. North American video game and console sales dropped from over $3.8 billion in 1982 to just $800 million in 1985 leading to some of the biggest companies in the industry — including Atari — going bankrupt or being snapped up as bargain basement acquisitions. > > If you’d seen the video game hype building in the late 70s or early 80s and invested then, chances were good you took a beating. > > But the industry did recover. A decade later, Nintendo (NTDOY) — the same company that’s in such dire straits now — and Sony (SNE) were selling 16-bit consoles with much better graphics and a stronger lineup of games. The video game industry was well-established and in growth mode. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/26 "2013-09-28T18:09:04Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Get some of the rare series 1 and 2 right now. They are already kind of expensive but they’re going to be even more valuable in 20 years. Keep on the look out for “malformed” figurines as well. Plus hunting for them is fun. Some of the figurines are already worth hundreds of dollars at auction. They’re only going to go up from there! But do you have the only known instance of Han Solo with the unique “pink vest” error, MIP and stored in a nitrogen environment? He even looks a lot like Honus Wagner if you squint. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/27 "2013-09-28T18:14:51Z")
> [@Superhal](#): > > I don’t like paper, as mentioned above, but also the “good” cards now are at a premium before they are even found. I almost bought a 1/1 RG3 last year for ~300. I don’t want to to front that $300 on 1/1 cards, I want to put in say $1 300 times, wait 20 years, and collect $2 300 times. If you want to double your investment over twenty years, you only need an annual return of about 3.5%. You should be able to do better with a relatively safe investment in a broad stock index fund. ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/28 "2013-09-28T18:29:39Z")
Just to echo everyone else, if your goal is to have a nice return in 20 years, invest in index funds. If you invest with one of the discount brokerages, and buy their funds, you should not have any transaction fees. You can also avoid fees by setting up an automatic investment plan. If you just want to gamble, I recommend the lottery. Sure, it’s gambling, but at least a) you know what the return will be if you win and b) _someone_ is going to make money. With coins, watches, movie memorabilia, etc., you have no idea what the return might be, and there might well be no return at all for anyone. If you just feel like collecting something, make it something you enjoy. My ridiculously large collection of sweaters and jackets is never going to be worth anything, but at least I have fun shopping for them and wearing them. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/29 "2013-09-28T18:59:39Z")
If you want a story about someone who was a successful collector, look at [Herb and Dorothy Vogel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herb_and_Dorothy_Vogel). They were a middle-class couple from New York (he was a postal clerk and she was a librarian). Over the course of decades, they amassed a huge collection of modern and contemporary art. They sold or gave a large part of it to the National Gallery of Art. Later they also gave fifty pieces to each of the states. (It was a large collection.) In their case. it helped that they befriended artists early in their careers so they bought pieces cheaply. And I assume they had good taste, although when I saw a story about them on 60 Minutes, I didn’t “get” some of their collection. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/30 "2013-09-28T20:35:21Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Skylanders > > Get some of the rare series 1 and 2 right now. They are already kind of expensive but they’re going to be even more valuable in 20 years. Keep on the look out for “malformed” figurines as well. Plus hunting for them is fun. Some of the figurines are already worth hundreds of dollars at auction. They’re only going to go up from there! This is really good advice. But I’m going to tweak it just a bit and suggest Activision stock (the company that makes Skylanders) instead. The next Skylanders (and the next Call of Duty) is a few weeks away and it might be the biggest one yet. ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/31 "2013-09-28T21:06:11Z")
> [@Superhal](#): > > To put it another way: I want to buy something that doesn’t have a collector’s or market premium now that will have it in 20 years, such as silver in 2003, star wars toys in the 1970’s, etc. > > This thing or things should: > > 1. Not have a transaction fee, like stocks. > 2. Not be overly fragile, like baseball cards or comics. > 3. Not be difficult to store, like furniture. > 4. Not take specialized skills to maintain, like pinball machines. > 5. Be physical items, unlike certificates of deposit. If your example of a transaction fee is stock, you sorely misunderstand investing. Stocks and bonds have incredibly low transactions fees compared to baseball cards, comics, and anything else on your list with the exception of CDs. A big part of the transaction fee is the bid-ask spread, the difference between what you can buy and sell it for at the same moment. These spreads are huge in the collectible market – ranging up to 50% of the price unless you’re willing to do the work of serving as your own dealer and finding the customer. It’s true that stock funds can have ongoing management fees if someone is managing your money, but you can avoid these if you select some stocks and hold them. Just hold a well diversified portfolio. You can come close to avoiding the management fees but buying an index fund like Vanguard.They certainly qualify under 2-4, probably not under your 5. Selecting collectibles, in my opinion is crazy. he way you make a fortune in collectibles is by happening to save exactly those things that others thought no one else would want but were wrong. Comic books from the 40 through 60s became valuable because they were discardable items. Kids read them, traded them and tossed them (Moms threw them away when we went to college). Now grown kids want them again. More recent comics were bought by collectors and stored away protected. When these collectors get older and they and their kids no longer want them, I suspect they will flood the market. This is even more so true with anything marketed as a collectible. Don’t buy things from the Franklin Mint, special commemorative Princess Di items, or most like states quarters or Presidential dollars. I suspect there are too many of these things that people are randomly saving to ever become valuable. ---
**Author:** ![JustinC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justinc/32/8083_2.png) [@JustinC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JustinC)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/32 "2013-09-28T21:26:39Z")
This reminds me of when I worked in the bank. People would ask “Are interest rates going up or down?”. I’d say “If I knew that I’d be a millionaire, but I think they’ll be low for quite a while” (this was 1999-2006). OP I think lots of advice above is correct. I would like to add that you can add Alpha to your return by buying indexes and individual companies in industries you think will do well in the future. You could buy a tracker using 50-80% of your savings and then invest in individual companies with the rest. The individual companies are, of course, the kicker. I’m dripping into banks, transportation (train, bus, not air), insurance, health, construction and tech, putting most into low cost trackers and some hedge funds for small investors. I already have stamps and coins - their worth was growing in the last decade but have gone out of favor. I prefer investments that give a reliable return so I prefer buying a share of companies. It’s up to you what you do; as noted above no-one knows what will happen in the future. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/33 "2013-09-28T21:31:04Z")
“No kidding” to most of what’s posted above. If you have no interest/knowledge personally in certain collectables, why would you even entertain the idea that you are going to make that awesomely lucrative purchase/lottery ticket that a bizillion people who ARE interested/knowledgeable won’t snap up before you? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/34 "2013-09-28T22:58:45Z")
An alarm clock. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2013, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/35 "2013-09-28T23:10:04Z")
Beware of any coins coming out of China, as counterfeits are everywhere. A few years ago nobody would touch Pandas, as the market was flooded with fakes. Unless they are in the mint packets, stay away from it. Gold and silver are generally a poor investment unless you can afford the risk. And the peak was a couple of years ago. Right now, gold is at about 1335. When I sold my collection, it was around 1600. Problem is, when spot gets that high, collector value for all but the rarest of coins takes a real beating. Collectibles are cyclic, as anybody who watches Antiques Roadshow can tell you. Items that are hot today may be worth crap next year. Again, what’s your risk tolerance? If you’ve got some money, invest in one of the top stock advisor letters that has a proven track record and invest accordingly. You’ll likely be better off in the long run. ---
**Author:** ![Superhal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Superhal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superhal)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2013, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/36 "2013-09-29T01:17:40Z")
Wow, kinda shocking how few suggestions came out so far. Thanks for those that tried. In the research ive done so far, I’ve found about three reliable criteria: 1. Rarity: the fewer there are, the more people want them. 2. Quality: if its made out of gold or silver, it has more intrinsic value. 3. Name recognition: if the average person on the street can say they’ve heard of it, it has more value. Last night i took a closer look at the Rolex market, and it was kind of sad how prices steadily declined from the retail price as the watches got older. Mass produced stainless steel rolexes from the 80s can be had for under $200, then the prices increased again up to the 60s, and then a vintage value was added, but it topped out at around 6-12k. Ones made out of gold held their value the best, but there was hardly any value above it. Spare parts actually were stronger than whole watches for their gold content. Toys aren’t good either. I looked at the lots with bids on eBay, and only those that were sold in sets or lots of 10-50 had bids over 1k. So, that hits my “difficult to store” criteria. I did more research on the proof sets, and found that the proof penny, nickle, dime, indian dollar and 50 cent piece are the rarest because they are only sold in sets. Proof quarters are cheaper because they can be purchased separately, so there are three times as many on the market. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2013, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/37 "2013-09-29T02:01:46Z")
> [@OldGuy](#): > > If your example of a transaction fee is stock, you sorely misunderstand investing. Stocks and bonds have incredibly low transactions fees compared to baseball cards, comics, and anything else on your list with the exception of CDs. Yes, I also was confused by OP’s preference for collectibles rather than stocks “because of transaction costs.” :smack: (Avoid high turnover though, and the inconveniences that arise with very small positions.) > [@OldGuy](#): > > … The way you make a fortune in collectibles is by happening to save exactly those things that others thought no one else would want but were wrong. Yes. IOW, good advice might be to ask for recommendations, as you have here, and then collect _ **something else!** _🆒 > [@Superhal](#): > > … > 2. Quality: if its made out of gold or silver, it has more intrinsic value. I’m not sure expensive objects make good collectibles. For example, a gold coin will have an “intrinsic” value and added “collectible” value. Won’t the “collectible” portion of the total value usually be smaller, in percentage terms, in something with higher intrinsic value? (Of course, gold objects will be good assets if the intrinsic value rises, but someone who already has precious metal assets should want to diversify.) ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2013, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/38 "2013-09-29T02:08:23Z")
> [@Superhal](#): > > I did more research on the proof sets, and found that the proof penny, nickle, dime, indian dollar and 50 cent piece are the rarest because they are only sold in sets. Proof quarters are cheaper because they can be purchased separately, so there are three times as many on the market. Wait, so when you mentioned in the OP that “Chinese silver pandas are already selling for 30-50% over spot” were you referring to _proof sets_? If so, I can sort-of understand that they will sell above the spot price. But I’m dubious that they’re _worth_ more than spot price. With very few exceptions, when you’re buying gold or silver coins, you’re buying them for their metal content. So don’t pay more than spot (plus a _slight_ dealer surcharge). But I believe that **samclem** is in the coin business, so perhaps he has better information. ---
**Author:** ![Dignan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f07891/32.png) [@Dignan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dignan)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2013, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/39 "2013-09-29T05:29:31Z")
What do you want from this money? Is it strictly an investment? It sounds more like you want to use it for speculation. Those two could be interchangeable, depending on semantics. Do you want people to reinforce your ideas and what you’ve rejected? If you have an individual stock account, what transaction fees are you opposed to paying? Basic commissions? There are online brokerages that will charge $10 or less for market orders. There will be transaction fees associated with selling most things. Ebay will charge you to sell memorabilia, or toys. If you drive to a pawn shop or antique store to sell your watches there will be a cost of gas. Those aren’t that much different than “transaction fees”. Depending on the IRA and your age, you won’t have access to that money for a while. If you want to buy something cheaply, and “sit” on it for 20 years, I think you would be better served putting your energy into security analysis or real estate. You need to make those decisions on your own, but you could see some return on a stock from a dividend, or real estate from rent. Collectibles and metals sit in a closet. Stocks are easier to value and liquidate than collectibles. If you need to sell a stock you can have a quote in an instant, and sell it once the markets open. If you need to sell a collectible, you need to find the right buyer, who is willing to pay the price you want. As DonLogan pointed out, it isn’t asking much to buy something for $1 today, and collecting $2 in 20 years. That isn’t even asking for an annual return of 4%. That isn’t much of a return for the amount of risk with something as fickle as collectibles. The reason some old baseball cards became so valuable is because no one thought they would be at the time. A kid would leave the house, and mom would throw away the baseball cards because they weren’t worth anything. Eventually the ones that weren’t thrown away had value, because people wanted them. You can only speculate what will be the next big thing. Maybe it’s something electronics related. People may eventually be nostalgic for the very first iPhone, or a Blackberry, or a Razr. One of the first versions of the Mac sold for a lot of money at auction. If that type of thing provides value to you in the form of the hobby, that’s great, but it isn’t a particularly sound investment strategy. ---
**Author:** ![Dead\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Dead\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dead_Cat)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2013, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854/40 "2013-09-29T07:02:22Z")
A lot of good advice in here already. If I may attempt to summarise a good deal of it: you can either collect something you can enjoy and not worry about the return (if any) you might get on it, or you can buy stocks and bonds if the priority is getting a decent return for a reasonable risk. You’ll only achieve both if you get really lucky with what you decide to collect. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investing-today-increased-return-in-20-years/669854.md?page=3)