# Investment general discussion thread **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 5, 2025, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169 "2025-03-05T18:24:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/481 "2025-04-17T18:40:18Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > There may be more to it that I’m missing, and there are a few areas where US manufacturing could be more competitive and still have desirable jobs come from that (say, Boeing vs Airbus), US manufacturing is alive and well. We have the most productive and among the most skilled workers in the world. We make big, expensive, complicated things like jet engines and gas turbines, and specialty steel that have to be absolutely perfect. The US automotive sector is bigger than its ever been (just not all are US based companies). Pharma manufacturing is huge business, and one where mistakes are not tolerated. You’ve never flown on a plane built in Bangladesh. You don’t pay a doctor to mow your lawn, and you don’t pay a US worker to put laces on shoes. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/482 "2025-04-17T18:41:18Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > 80% of Americans think the country would better off if more manufacturing was done here but only 25% would actually take those jobs. I’m guessing those 25% would take those jobs only if it meant not having to relocate, at least not to a place like Kansas or Idaho. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/483 "2025-04-17T19:33:26Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > I’m guessing those 25% would take those jobs only if it meant not having to relocate, at least not to a place like Kansas or Idaho. I’ll suggest most of those 25% already live in former manufacturing towns. And are unwilling to relocate. What they want is the jobs brought to them. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/484 "2025-04-17T19:37:13Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > US manufacturing is alive and well. We have the most productive and among the most skilled workers in the world. Productive is a key word there. There are fairly few manufacturing jobs. Most of the output is automated. High quality production with few workers involved. That has been a trend for many decades. More US manufacturing means very few additional jobs. It does require building more of those highly automated plants. Which require robots that are not built in the US … that have high tariffs on them. And that cost more with the dollar worth less. But once built yes the product has an advantage if the dollar is worth less. Additional issue is having the workers. Separate thread but we have too low a birthrate to keep up a supply. You really need to get some people immigrating here to be the new taxpayers. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/485 "2025-04-17T19:46:54Z")
The other big issue is how much the value drops. Once the dollar is no longer reliable it is fairly useless as the reserve currency, and as already discussed, we then go into uncharted seas where krakens live. Multiple central banks could be racing to be ahead of the crowd releasing their reserve dollars and exchanging for a mixed bag of other currencies and gold. The drop is not something you can finesse at that point. It quickly risks a collapse. It is a very dangerous game. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/486 "2025-04-17T19:51:56Z")
> [@CoolHandCox](#): > > I think the pros of being the reserve currency greatly outweigh that con, and I’m not saying any of this is the right policy. It’s definitely not. Just that, if you want your exports to be cheaper/reduce your trade deficit, you can devalue your currency. While there are other tools short of stupid, it is harder for the US to do it like other countries can because of it’s unique situation in the world. In general, I would (and have) argued that we’d do better to split into two currencies. Have one for finances, tech, and other growth industries centered around cities and a second that covers agriculture, commodities, manufacturing, and other more rural-centric or blue collar job holders. You start the two off at the same level as the dollar and then let them drift under separate management. You don’t have to pick one and make it handle separate, contradictory tasks. And, importantly, the changes will happen on their own, over time so that the markets can adapt and build their own standards. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/487 "2025-04-17T20:03:36Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > It is a very dangerous game. Do I hear my name? I’m willing to be commerce secretary ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/488 "2025-04-17T20:11:47Z")
As of yesterday, my 401(k) was down $71.67 from March 3rd. In the interim, I’ve contributed $446.41 through automatic deductions, so my total loss as of yesterday was $518.08. IIRC, the Dow was around 43,900 on 03/03. The Stock Market just closed, and Yahoo says it closed at 39,142.23. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/489 "2025-04-17T20:39:04Z")
My understanding is that because the US dollar is the global reserve currency, the federal government is able to pay very low interest rates on government bonds. Giving up the status as reserve currency would increase those costs, meaning that more of the annual budget would need to go to paying down the federal debt. Stephen Miran suggests that a weaker dollar would encourage investment in domestic manufacturing. That’s fine but the other day I saw Fareed Zakaria’s CNN program and he pointed out that only eight percent of US employment is in manufacturing and even then, only four percent is in production (the rest being sales, marketing, distribution, etc). He also showed a chart (shown [here](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/13/politics/video/gps0413-american-manufacturing-trump-tariffs)) of the decline in the share of manufacturing in US employment. It shows a steady decline since 1940, and the decline doesn’t even appear to have changed even with the rise of Chinese manufacturing. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/490 "2025-04-17T21:56:36Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > He also showed a chart (shown [here](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/13/politics/video/gps0413-american-manufacturing-trump-tariffs)) of the decline in the share of manufacturing in US employment. It shows a steady decline since 1940, and the decline doesn’t even appear to have changed even with the rise of Chinese manufacturing. Yes. Fewer employed in the sector yet … > **[US Manufacturing Contributes To Economy Same As 70 Years Ago](https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/09/28/us-manufacturing-contributes-to-economy-same-as-70-years-ago/)** > > On an inflation-adjusted basis, manufacturing continues to provide a meaningful contribution to the economy. > Since the late 1940s, manufacturing has fluctuated in a tight range around 12% of _real_ GDP. When using real GDP, the effects of price increase (aka, inflation) are removed. This gives a clearer perspective on the sector’s output over time. Said another way, manufacturing has held its own over the decades, continuing to generate a significant share of the overall economy. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/491 "2025-04-17T22:05:13Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > the Dow was around 43,900 on 03/03 43,191.24 Here’s a Yahoo finance [link](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/) to a day-by-day history of the Dow. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/492 "2025-04-17T22:05:42Z")
Thanks. I knew there was a 9 in there somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2025, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/493 "2025-04-17T22:09:32Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Yahoo says it closed at 39,142.23. If my math is correct, the Dow is down almost exactly 10% since Trump took office. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2025, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/494 "2025-04-18T02:01:54Z")
Specific stock choices to discuss. Preamble. I am attracted to contrarian plays and love to look for market over reactions for stocks that likely still will do well over a long term. I have two or three stocks that have done very well and have not been hit too bad, and am ready to spread a bit off the top of those winnings. (Already moved a bit into Pfizer.) So two to get thoughts on that have had I think excessive punishment. United Healthcare. Down 22% today on both missed earnings and negative guidance. Seems excessive and again I see healthcare as a defensive play in possible recessionary times. OTOH I think of the company as evil. Nvidia. Down 28% over 3 months. Trading now we they were last May. Long term AI is still going to grow dramatically and they are still the powerhouse there. But I am cautious about trying catch a falling knife. They might have more to drop. Trying to decide what price point would be worth buying some. Input? ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2025, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/495 "2025-04-18T02:34:59Z")
I agree that UNH seems overly punished and is a good buy. The insurance system is completely entrenched, they are the biggest (?) player, and they’re relatively resistant to tariffs (other than pharmaceuticals, but it’s likely they can find alternate sources) and the sort of arbitrary actions Trump would take. Trump is not gonna play around with some sort of national health care that could potentially wreck the industry. I’d even consider taking a position myself but I don’t know if I’m going to be going long on US assets anytime soon. NVIDIA is complicated. They can be impacted by tariffs, AI might be a bubble to a degree, they may have soared too high and were vulnerable to a correction. However, Trump is corruptly granting various exemptions to tariffs and NVIDIA is likely to be a beneficiary to those, and there’s a decent chance of a significant climb based on that perception. I think it’s too unstable to own (too vulnerable to conflicting factors), but if you want to get value for the possibility that everything goes well and it goes up quite a bit, this seems like a good situation for a filthy, degenerate call. Maybe in the 2-4 week range. ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2025, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/496 "2025-04-18T02:35:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > But I am cautious about trying catch a falling knife. They might have more to drop. I can’t speak to a specific stock, but if you think you’re getting it on sale, then get it. On sale is a good buy. It might fall lower and you could get a great buy, but you shouldn’t worry about that. That’s mostly luck. Take the good buy. It’s the best anyone can do. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2025, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/497 "2025-04-18T04:59:27Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Long term AI is still going to grow dramatically This is not a sure bet. It is absolutely something that _they_ want you to believe. AI is the current champion that will allow tech stocks to continue to grow unchecked forever. However, nobody is making money on AI, except Nvidia, who are selling shovels. Microsoft has recently cancelled building several large data centers because they are not seeing AI growth. Of course Microsoft is already heavily invested in AI, so they don’t come right out and say that’s why they cancelled them. That’s why they were building them, though. Even without all of the other stuff happening righ now, AI is a very dangerous bubble to be investing in. None of us can help being part of it though, as all of our index funds own lots of companies deep into AI. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2025, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/498 "2025-04-18T11:22:18Z")
I agree on AI. It seems to me that new things come along, get everyone all hot and bothered, and then- nothing. Then the second generation figures it out. In 1997 the internet was going to change everything. Then the dot com bubble burst, and we had a few new things to play with, but things didn’t change all that much. Then, after that, the internet changed the world. I’m a believer that with most technologies it’s the second gen that makes it work. As I type this on my Commodore 64bit Laptop. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2025, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/499 "2025-04-18T12:01:33Z")
Yeah that’s why I’m asking here. I agree that AI was ahead of its skis. And a major recession may slow down the head long rush to adopt to not get behind the competition. Not sure it has dropped enough yet to consider it “on sale”, and my index fund still gives me ample exposure to it. UHC I do think is a lower risk defensive bet at this price. I just hate the company and what they represent. In general I also want to not feel dirty with my individual stock picks. I’m going to just watch each of them for now. Thanks for the feedback. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2025, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169/500 "2025-04-18T16:59:19Z")
So Trump is making yet more noise about firing Jerome Powell (which is illegal, but that is unlikely to matter) and threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve. Annie Lowrey in the Atlantic [says](https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/04/trump-fed-economic-disaster/682506/) that if this happens: > [@Annie Lowrey in the Atlantic](#): > > If Trump bullies the Fed into a policy decision by firing Powell and installing a crony in the central bank, investors around the world will dump even more American assets and flee to the relative safety of the euro, raising domestic borrowing costs as the central bank scrambles to shore up the financial system and tries to bring interest rates down. It would be chaos, with costs extending into the trillions of dollars and the ramifications felt for decades. So what do I do now (i.e. today) with my savings and retirement accounts? I failed to predict that Trump would actually go through with his tariff threats and now my 401(k) is down 20% this year. All of the market advice you read says to leave things alone. But I’m starting to seriously worry about the long-term future of my financial health. (And lots of other things, but those are topics for another thread.) I’m currently mostly invested in U.S. index funds, U.S. growth funds, and some bonds. Should I shift my 401(k) to foreign index funds? (I’m not even sure how to do that.) Or gold? (I can’t believe I’m writing this, as I’m no goldbug.) I’m not sure how to do this either. I certainly don’t want to hold onto physical gold. My savings are mostly in short-term CDs earning about 4.5%. These are fine, I guess, so long as the U.S. doesn’t experience hyperinflation. Which I now think has a nonzero chance of happening in the next four years, if not sooner. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. > [@DSeid](#): > > I agree that AI was ahead of its skis. P.S. I know this is a common expression but as a skier, it always irritated me. Because in downhill skiing you _want_ to have your weight (i.e. center of gravity) forward. Indeed, it’s almost impossible to get your weight too far forward. It’s when your weight shifts _backwards_ that you lose control and will likely fall. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/investment-general-discussion-thread/1015169.md?page=26)