What’s the best way to keep betting on Tesla falling? Short more shares at the current price? Buy short term (<1 month) puts? Long term puts? I’m a little leery of putting more into TSLX because there could be some false recoveries before diving again and holding leveraged inverse funds has a “time decay” factor because on the math of betting on losses rather than gains.
Puts are expensive as everyone rushes to bet against Tesla, I wonder if I should wait for a short term rebound gain to make them.
Example prices: $200 strike on Mar 21 is $7.70, $200 on april 17 is $14.80.
$150 strike on Sep 19 is $13.05, $150 on Jan 16 is $17.85
$125 on nov 21, 9.80, Jan 16 2026 $11.50
Those actually aren’t too bad. I do want to make a bet on the 6ish month term, something like $130 or $150 by September, but the cost becomes so high that you need it to decline a LOT to break even, and it makes me wonder realistically if we can get it significantly below that level soon to make a profit. Maybe I should stick to shorter term, like a month or two.
Prices outside of market times are estimates though it’s entirely possible when the market opens the prices are 20-30% higher and if I put in an order around those prices it won’t execute.
What’s the logic of Fidelity preventing me from selling short outside of an 8-5 window? Do other brokers do that too? I don’t want to get up at 5am (pacific) to make a short sale.
I fully recommend Tesla shorts and puts today. I’m not a financial advisor blah blah just some random internet dude who thinks he knows more than he does.
There’s just no reason to suspect it’s ever going to rebound. Their big tech promises are far off. Other companies do them better (Waymo is ahead now of where Tesla will be in 2 years). Everyone hates Elon. Those that don’t hate him hate EVs. No one wants to buy car that’s going to get vandalized and get them socially rejected. The sales numbers in Europe and China (down like 60-80%) are from January and that was before Elon even went full Elon, the February numbers are going to be awful. Other manufacturers do EVs better. Tesla has nothing. For 90% of it’s life and value it was a cult of personality stock, and now that personality is a flaming pile of shit for everyone to see. I know people have lost big shorting Tesla before, but it’s really hard to see it recovering this time.
The only possible good thing (for the stock) that could happen is some Trump craziness like deciding Tesla is the national car and we’re going to spend 100 billion dollars putting transmitters on every highway to make Tesla FSD work or something. Or just banning every non-Tesla EV. Something crazy but not outside of the realm of possibility with Trump, but even that would be a short-lived bump as the chaotic environment we were in would fall apart and that policy would be forgotten and then we’d have the crash a few weeks or months later.
There may be a slight recovery early today just from general rebound effects. Take advantage of it. Short sell after the bump. But I wouldn’t risk it just in case it doesn’t have that bump. Get what you can in now. It’s going down to $150 by summer and under $100 sometime in the fall.
EVs are far more popular among the left than the right. Most of the right has an aversion to them. So I see no reason to expect sales to rebound. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the market cap goes to a more sensible number, at which point I could see one of the big automakers acquiring them.
I know you did- I was just making my prediction that this could actually be the end of Tesla. The right isn’t going to suddenly embrace EVs en masse, and the left isn’t going to support Musk. So unless they oust him, what’s the impetus to save Tesla, long term?
Also, I really thought we’d have a dead cat bounce today. That we haven’t is concerning to me.
My son is in a bit of a panic, as his 401 is tanking. He knows he shouldn’t realign his investments in a downturn, but he’s really freaking out. For good reason, IMO. Trump is heading us for a recession and really doesn’t give a shit about how much pain it will cause.
Just point out to him that it’s likely too late now. We’re already down 10-13% (depending on your preferred index), and that could be the end of it (or not; it depends on how stubborn Trump is).
This is why risk-assessment is so important when initially building a portfolio balance. Downturns happen, and they should be accounted for in deciding what level of risk you’re comfortable with.
Of course, it’s the big swings that can really reveal what our actual risk tolerance is. If he decides he’s more comfortable with a more protected allocation, he can always start by changing his new contribution allocation (most plans allow for different allocations for new contributions as well as existing balances).
How old is your son? I was 55 in 2008 when the market cratered. I was scared shitless about never being able to retire. Yet I retired comfortably just 8 years later.
The age old comment “this time it’s different” is always a bit dangerous.
But this is the first time we’ve had the government actively being attacked … by the government. And by crazy Bond-villain equivalent super-tycoons.
The normal market goes up and down driven by investor sentiment and the business cycle. But what if the business cycle is about to be destroyed as the rule of law is destroyed and warlordism breaks out?
This time might indeed be different. Severely different. This is not 2008. This is 2008 times eleventy. Largely because the forces we normally count on to right the ship are the ones actively trying to capsize it. It is quite evident that whatever their true goals are, a normal prosperous USA, both Main Street and Wall Street, are not high on their list.
In shorter terms: You are not aboard an airliner having an engine fire. you’re aboard an airliner flown by terrorists heading for NYC and Washington DC.
That is a very significant difference. IMO this time is different. Most of us are just too afraid to admit that might be the case.
So let’s go with the two possibilities: this time is different or it’s not.
If it is and indeed this is absolute economic disaster? There is no safe harbor. Bonds? They will crash. International? We will bring them all down with us. Cash? Even that may be at risk. It’s the scenario that gets people burying gold in their yard.
So we try to wait it out we are in good shape if it isn’t different this time, and no more screwed than anyhow else if it is.
My concern with US bonds are that the currency might be devalued. If the price of coffee is $100 a cup then it doesn’t matter that you’re getting 4% on that $40k of bonds that you purchased, you’re not able to afford anything.
But otherwise, bonds don’t really crash. I guess there is the secondary concern that the US, or whatever organization you purchased the bond off of, decides to renege on the deal and stop payments. But that’s not a crash, it’s default.
Foreign bonds would be unaffected by currency devaluation, though they probably pay less due to currency exchange costs.
If you buy a Singaporean bond, they’re probably not going to default on the debt, crash, or otherwise suffer any issue past the currency exchange overhead. As always, diversification is good.
Perhaps but, likewise, if you invested before the 2008/9 stock market crash, you’d still be better off today than if you hadn’t. If you’ve got money burning a hole in your pocket, in general, it’s good to put it into stocks. US craziness may bring the international stock market down but that doesn’t invalidate stock purchase entirely. It’s purely a question of whether you’d rather have your money traversing something more like a normal stock market downturn or something more special like the Trump Special?
Owning commodities and other assets is a hedge against deflation. If you own a few hundred head of cattle then, no matter how many dollar bills there are in the system or whatever the exchange rate with the EU might be, the count of dollars per cow is going to rise and fall to stay roughly consistent with inflation/devaluation/etc. because food is not optional. People will always spend their money on food in a steady, unstoppable progression. The amount that people can defer spending, when it comes to sustenance, is limited.
If selling a cow let’s you buy 100 cups of coffee today then, in two years, you’ll still (probably) be able to sell a cow and buy 100 cups of coffee.
Gold, real estate, etc. might be more or less affected by dollar manipulation, depending on how human psychology plays out under stress and panic.
But let’s say that gold becomes 3/4ths as valuable (in terms of what you need to support yourself) in 2 years as it is today. If most of everyone was living check to check and tons of people got completely wiped out, you might have started in the 60th percentile of Americans and ended up in the 85th, because nearly everyone else failed to hedge good enough. You’ve risen, by failing less.
I agree if the USA really melts down there is no completely safe harbor. Everyone everywhere will be adversely affected some. But the assumption the entire world will burn, down to the last Swiss banker’s last gold bar, seems a bit much.
IMO like the situation between the USA and Western Europe after WW-II, the more intact powers will clean up in the relative vacuum left by the destroyed powers. “Powers” both in the sense of political entities like countries and financial entities like companies, banks, and financiers.
A portfolio of purely non-US assets denominated in non-US currencies held by non-US financial institutions and traded on non-US exchanges is about as insulated as one can get.
The big problem for schlubs like us doing that is existing US law, notably FATCA, that was enacted to impede large scale tax evasion by the highly wealthy in normal times has become a financial prison for us. It’s not illegal (yet) for US persons to hold assets as I’ve suggested. But it’s so onerous for those non-US institutions to do business with US persons that most of them won’t bother at all, or at least not yet. Nor for accounts smaller than many tens of millions of dollars.
He’s 53 this year. I have no idea what his 401 might hold or how long he’s been putting into it. I’m guessing he’s in stocks rather than government instruments.
The generally safe Vanguard total bond fund dropped over 13% in ‘22.
And what will complete collapse this time is different look like? Stagflation? Deflation? Do banks hold up to the stress as their investments evaporate? EU economies are stressed as it is, plus are having to step to fund defense in an era that the US cannot be trusted. @LSLGuy maybe not the last gold bar but there are few options for most of us. Of course a diversified position is the least poor option.