# Iowa Caucus Discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 4, 2020, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465 "2020-02-04T03:01:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/241 "2020-02-05T01:07:31Z")
Is that _Iowa_ polling average, or nationwide? ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/242 "2020-02-05T01:09:58Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Is that _Iowa_ polling average, or nationwide? I used the Iowa averages. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/243 "2020-02-05T01:12:31Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > And relative to expectations, defined by 538 polling average: That is a pretty awful way to define expectations IMO. States vary from the average interests of Dem primary voters nationwide. In some states candidates are a better fit than they are for the nation as a whole. In others they are a worse fit. States, especially smaller states, are not average. We knew going in that Biden was not expected to be strong in IA or NH but is doing better in statewide polling in NV and SC. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/244 "2020-02-05T01:12:44Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > That’s when they choose the actual delegates, but the numbers are now determined in advance in caucus states. Iowa uses State Delegate Equivalents; I think Nevada uses the actual headcount. I explained this earlier in the thread… > [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Here’s the really crazy thing, immediate results were never even on the menu. The Iowa Caucuses are a multi-step process that won’t be complete until June 13, 2020. > > Last night (2/3) people in 1,678 precincts elected 11,402 county delegates to represent them at the county conventions on March 3, 2020. > > At those county conventions they will select 2,107 state and district convention delegates that will go to the district conventions on April, 25 2020 and the state convention on June 6, 2020. > > The district conventions will select 27 delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention, and the state convention will select 14 more. > > Only at the end of this process will we know which candidate is sending the most delegates to the national convention and thus who won Iowa. > > They usually also calculate a number of ‘State Delegate Equivalents’ for all the candidates that sums to the 2,107 state delegates that will be chosen in March. This is an estimate, and things are probably going to change significantly before then. For example, a candidate who is awarded State Delegate Equivalents today may not even be in the race at the end of March. But you posted, “Of course, none of these really matter - it’s how many Democratic National Convention delegates you get - but I’m waiting until it’s closer to 100% before I work out those.” There will be a total 0f 2,701 state delegate equivalents while Iowa will send 41 delegates to the national convention. You can see how I might think you were talking Democratic National Convention delegates, because you used the exact words, “Democratic National Convention delegates.” ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/245 "2020-02-05T01:15:20Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > They can both be true — she did better than expectations, but not SO MUCH better as she needed to to launch her into serious contention (IMHO). Yeah, but Warren’s numbers nationally are MUCH better than Buttigieg’s. This win probably moves Pete slightly ahead of her in terms of chance to win, but they’re both still real long shots. Until some more diverse States vote, I’m not ready to say that Pete is in “serious contention”. ---
**Author:** ![Inigo\_Montoya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inigo_montoya/32/124_2.png) [@Inigo\_Montoya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inigo_Montoya)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/246 "2020-02-05T01:25:53Z")
> [@MortSahlFan](#): > > Yup. If he isn’t the nominee, I’ll stay home and play here oh yeah? Well if Buttigieg doesn’t get it I’m still voting. For Trump because fuk da woooorld! ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/247 "2020-02-05T01:28:17Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Yeah, but Warren’s numbers nationally are MUCH better than Buttigieg’s. This win probably moves Pete slightly ahead of her in terms of chance to win, but they’re both still real long shots. Until some more diverse States vote, I’m not ready to say that Pete is in “serious contention”. I think no one would be more surprised than Buttigieg if he won the nomination. I think he wants to carve out a political future for himself on a political stage bigger than mayor of a small(ish) city in Indiana. And he has done that. The further he can go in the primaries the more negotiating power he will have down the road for political favors. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/248 "2020-02-05T01:31:08Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Yeah, but Warren’s numbers nationally are MUCH better than Buttigieg’s. This win probably moves Pete slightly ahead of her in terms of chance to win, but they’re both still real long shots. Until some more diverse States vote, I’m not ready to say that Pete is in “serious contention”. True. I just have a feeling Warren has a harder ceiling (in many states) than Pete, determined mainly by those for whom “electability” is all. It’s a combination of thinking misogyny played a role in Hillary’s loss, and the idea that M4A scares the voters that will matter most. And, I agree Pete is not in serious contention at this time. But, he seems to have a (barely) plausible path TO that — one of two reasons that this Iowa caucus did matter, a little (along with energizing Bloomberg) — which I don’t see as much for Warren. ---
**Author:** ![kopek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kopek/32/337_2.png) [@kopek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kopek)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/249 "2020-02-05T01:39:35Z")
> [@Sterling\_Archer](#): > > Does anyone outside the top 5 have any reason to stay in the race at this point? Bloomberg possibly. I don’t know that he spent much in Iowa at all; right now a big load of his cash has been flowing into PA and a few other states. And he has always been somewhat “our guy” for a lot of people inside the Party even while he was technically a Republican - heck, even our mayor here in Western PA has used contact with him as a sort of personal endorsement. What I can’t quite decide is if he really hopes for the nod or if he is maybe looking to show his strength as a possible Veep. He’s one of those people who isn’t a lock-step Democrat but still isn’t quite the level of a Sanders for stirring the pot. And a tough person to guess about. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/250 "2020-02-05T02:20:33Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > And relative to expectations, defined by 538 polling average: > > Buttigieg +6 > Warren +5 > Klobuchar +3 > Sanders -2 > Biden -13 > > So really, a decent night for Pete and Liz, and a catastrophic one for Joe. The 538 average had Joe at 20.7%, his current standing in the Iowa caucus seems 13.1%. Definitely a catastrophe to end below 15 but only a 7% drop. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/251 "2020-02-05T02:42:50Z")
Turns out almost all Biden voters are asleep by 5 PM after watching the Golden Girls ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/252 "2020-02-05T02:53:13Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The 538 average had Joe at 20.7%, his current standing in the Iowa caucus seems 13.1%. Definitely a catastrophe to end below 15 but only a 7% drop. You’re right. How the hell did I manage to screw that up? Let’s try that again. Buttigieg +9 Warren +6 Sanders +4 Klobuchar +2 Biden -8 ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/253 "2020-02-05T03:03:59Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The 538 average had Joe at 20.7%, his current standing in the Iowa caucus seems 13.1%. Definitely a catastrophe to end below 15 but only a 7% drop. It’s a 37% drop from the predicted value in terms of percentages which is how you need to evaluate numbers like that. That is pretty big. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/254 "2020-02-05T03:20:33Z")
I don’t think we need to evaluate it that way. These guys weren’t miles apart before and their relative percentage drop is a less meaningful appraisal of the change in delegates they’re getting. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/255 "2020-02-05T03:35:09Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > They can both be true — she did better than expectations, but not SO MUCH better as she needed to to launch her into serious contention (IMHO). Also better than expectations which had come down a lot since last fall when when she was on top in IA and other polls and the betting odds were over 50% she’d be nominee. Another way of saying the same thing as you did: Warren needed to demolish _recent_ expectations to be right back in it, and did not do that. Buttigieg did fully reverse the slide he’d had from also being poll leader in IA ca. December to pretty far down in polls recently, although he was never nearly as high in betting odds to be nominee as Warren was. However Biden having tanked is an automatic bonus positive for everyone else who made a reasonable showing, whether in his ‘moderate lane’ or not. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/256 "2020-02-05T03:47:10Z")
Someone explain this to me. Klobucher and Biden got half the votes of Pete and Bernie. Bernie and Pete each got 10 delegates and Klobucher and Biden got 0. How does that work? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/257 "2020-02-05T03:55:14Z")
I wish we’d expedite the entire process of nominating someone. There’s no need to drag the primary season out; it’s time to have maybe one or two Super Tuesday type events so that the campaigning is done by March. Each of the events could be a combination of 15-17 states that include delegate rich states like CA and small states like NH; deep blue, deep red, and swing states. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/258 "2020-02-05T03:56:10Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > However Biden having tanked is an automatic bonus positive for everyone else who made a reasonable showing, whether in his ‘moderate lane’ or not. The poll leader taking a face plant is obviously good for everyone! Lol. Imho, this is a massive signal to Biden/Bloomberg. “We want a different moderate!” and I suspect that feeling might spread. Sorry, Buttigieg it’s not gonna be you. Don’t worry. I’m told Bloomberg’s hiring. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/259 "2020-02-05T04:07:34Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Someone explain this to me. Klobucher and Biden got half the votes of Pete and Bernie. Bernie and Pete each got 10 delegates and Klobucher and Biden got 0. How does that work? It doesn’t work like that. Where are you getting your info? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2020, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465/260 "2020-02-05T04:27:40Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > It doesn’t work like that. Where are you getting your info? You can see the delegate count [here.](https://www.google.com/search?q=iowa+caucus+results+2020&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS868US868&oq=iowa+ca&aqs=chrome.0.69i59l2j69i57j0l2j69i61l2j69i60.2855j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8) - Buttigieg: 10 - Sanders: 10 - Warren: 4 - Everyone else: 0 I do not know why it works that way but doubtless it is by the rules setup before this. I can only guess the rationale is to not dilute the delegates across a lot of contenders. Looking at it I suspect the rules say the top three get all the delegates, divided proportionally among them according to their results in the caucus. Just my guess though… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucus-discussion/847465.md?page=14)