# Iowa Caucuses are underway **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2016, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897 "2016-02-02T01:18:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/1 "2016-02-02T01:18:45Z")
No results yet, obviously, but I figure we need a thread for “live blogging” it. I have CNN on in the background, and it’s getting about a 10% attention share from me. Sounds like the Republican caucuses are drawing a large number of first time voters. I suspect that bodes well for Trump. I may regret my prediction. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/2 "2016-02-02T01:41:58Z")
Clinton seems to be up early as well, in early votes as well as entrance polls. Tracking something like 53-43… ---
**Author:** ![GloryDays](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e9c0ed/32.png) [@GloryDays](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GloryDays)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/3 "2016-02-02T01:55:08Z")
Huckabee and Santorum should drop out of the race immediately. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/4 "2016-02-02T01:56:56Z")
And their neck and neck at the start! CNN: Trump 29% Cruz 30% ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/5 "2016-02-02T01:57:53Z")
Just looked at the CNN polls. On the GOP side looks like Trump and Rubio will be the top two with Cruz on the outside looking in with a lack of support among non-evangelicals. Question is: is anyone surprised? Favorite quote > [@](#): > > Moderator asks room for a surrogate speaker for @JebBush. In room of 700, no one raised their hand. Audible gasps. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/6 "2016-02-02T02:00:00Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Just looked at the CNN polls. On the GOP side looks like Trump and Rubio will be the top two with Cruz on the outside looking in with a lack of support among non-evangelicals. Question is: is anyone surprised? Cruz is actually showing in first place on cnn now. Which data point are you seeing? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/7 "2016-02-02T02:02:17Z")
Clinton 52% Sanders 47% Could be a close one, people! ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/8 "2016-02-02T02:04:16Z")
R 14% reporting! Cruz: 30% Trump: 28% Rubio: 19% Carson: 10% D 32% reporting Clinton 52% Sanders 47% ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/9 "2016-02-02T02:10:08Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Just looked at the CNN polls. On the GOP side looks like Trump and Rubio will be the top two with Cruz on the outside looking in with a lack of support among non-evangelicals. Question is: is anyone surprised? I would be surprised. Cruz has a very strong campaign organization in Iowa. The only thing that surprises me about the early results is that Rubio (in third place) isn’t even further behind. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/10 "2016-02-02T02:11:05Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > Cruz is actually showing in first place on cnn now. Which data point are you seeing? [QUOTE=CNN] Early entrance poll results from CNN show very high turnout for evangelical and born-again Christian voters, at 63% of caucusgoers. That could have huge implications, especially they way they are splitting: Ted Cruz 26% Donald Trump 24% Marco Rubio 21% Ben Carson 12% Among non-evangelicals: Donald Trump 32% Marco Rubio 23% Ted Cruz 15% Rand Paul 5% [/QUOTE] Even If Cruz takes second in Iowa due to the high percentage of evos, the low-numbers Cruz has among the non-evos tells me he is not viable nationwide. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/11 "2016-02-02T02:12:25Z")
And with 40% D reporting closer yet. 51.5 to 47.9. 19% on R … too early to think much. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/12 "2016-02-02T02:12:42Z")
I’d think that if Rubio gets to 20% he’ll be considered one of the ‘winners’ of the evening. Whether he can capitalize on that come New Hampshire is up for grabs, but it’ll be a good sign for him. R 19% reporting Cruz 30% Trump 27% Rubio 19% Carson 10% D 42% reporting Clinton 51% Sanders 48% ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/13 "2016-02-02T02:13:11Z")
Sanders has really closed the gap as more votes have been counted. I’m not clear on why that is - should that trend continue through the night? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/14 "2016-02-02T02:14:52Z")
Harry Enten at 538 thinks it might. > [@](#): > > **Harry Enten** > I should point out that Sanders is closing as more votes have been reported. Clinton is up 51.8 percent to Sanders 47.6 percent. That’s with 34 percent of precincts reporting. And literally as I refresh it’s 36 percent of precincts and now it’s 51.5 percent to 48 percent. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/15 "2016-02-02T02:16:39Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > Sanders has really closed the gap as more votes have been counted. I’m not clear on why that is - should that trend continue through the night? 2 thoughts The western half of Iowa is the conservative half i.e. more for Clinton. What’s the weather like right now? Sanders support is centered on college campuses. With such a high concentration when they report may be skewing the numbers early on. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/16 "2016-02-02T02:18:44Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I’d think that if Rubio gets to 20% he’ll be considered one of the ‘winners’ of the evening. Whether he can capitalize on that come New Hampshire is up for grabs, but it’ll be a good sign for him. … He’ll be the leading one of the _less_ bat-shit lane. And it would be exceeding expectations spin. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/17 "2016-02-02T02:20:12Z")
Exceeding expectations is no small thing. Gary Hart may have flamed out in 1984 but he got a lot of extra press coverage by moderately outperforming in Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/18 "2016-02-02T02:22:28Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Exceeding expectations is no small thing. Gary Hart may have flamed out in 1984 but he got a lot of extra press coverage by moderately outperforming in Iowa. I don’t know if it was a flame out so much as the monkey business he was up to. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/19 "2016-02-02T02:24:51Z")
I got that, you know. The question still hangs…does Rubio have the operation to capitalize? Exit numbers are showing him outperforming in NW Iowa with its heavy evangelical electorate. I don’t know New Hampshire well but would that translate there? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/20 "2016-02-02T02:25:20Z")
Early on a 538 wonk stated that Cerro Gordo (Mason City) and Dubuque counties are the likely bellwethers for the D side. Cerro Gordo with 65% reporting is 52.4 Clinton and 47.6 Sanders. Dubuque counties with 42% reporting is 56.8 Clinton and 42.3 Sanders and 0.9 OMalley Make of it what you will. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897.md?page=2)