# Iowa Caucuses are underway **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 2, 2016, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897 "2016-02-02T01:18:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/41 "2016-02-02T03:03:32Z")
You be not alone! ---
**Author:** ![Octarine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/22d042/32.png) [@Octarine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Octarine)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/42 "2016-02-02T03:04:34Z")
I really was not expecting Bernie to do so well - this is close. If he wins, Clinton will have to take up residence in a bomb shelter to avoid the immediate negative press coverage . . . ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/43 "2016-02-02T03:05:21Z")
D 78.6% reporting Clinton 50% Sanders 49% Stupid sexy Sanders. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/44 "2016-02-02T03:06:21Z")
> [@Octarine](#): > > I really was not expecting Bernie to do so well - this is close. If he wins, Clinton will have to take up residence in a bomb shelter to avoid the immediate negative press coverage . . . Neither one will really ‘win’, this is pretty much a tie. It will probably be 50-51% for one and 49-50% for the other. So even if one of them wins, you can’t really say they won in any meaningful sense. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/45 "2016-02-02T03:10:29Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Neither one will really ‘win’, this is pretty much a tie. It will probably be 50-51% for one and 49-50% for the other. So even if one of them wins, you can’t really say they won in any meaningful sense. Except that one of them was in single digits a while back and the other was leading every poll by huge margins. ---
**Author:** ![JXJohns](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jxjohns/32/469_2.png) [@JXJohns](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JXJohns)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/46 "2016-02-02T03:11:15Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > 2 thoughts > The western half of Iowa is the conservative half i.e. more for Clinton. What’s the weather like right now? > > Sanders support is centered on college campuses. With such a high concentration when they report may be skewing the numbers early on. It is/was a beautiful night. No chance the weather had any negative affect on the results. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/47 "2016-02-02T03:11:20Z")
Yeah. Narrative and momentum are a thing in politics. But you’re right that in the delegate horse race it’s not indicative. But watching the spin will be entertaining. ---
**Author:** ![Octarine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/22d042/32.png) [@Octarine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Octarine)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/48 "2016-02-02T03:12:33Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Neither one will really ‘win’, this is pretty much a tie. It will probably be 50-51% for one and 49-50% for the other. So even if one of them wins, you can’t really say they won in any meaningful sense. True. But tell that to their campaign managers. 😉 Being able to claim a “win” over Clinton, no matter how technical, would be a major booster for Sanders. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/49 "2016-02-02T03:13:31Z")
Exactly. It’s a huge upset. Plus the fact that the Iowa Democratic winner has in recent years been a good predictor of the nominee, so a 50-50 result may portend quite an interesting election season. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/50 "2016-02-02T03:14:27Z")
538 data. Cruz is outperforming expectations by 3.9%. Trump is underperforming by the exact same figure. Meaningful? Who knows? But Rubio is outperforming expectations by 6.2% so far. ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/51 "2016-02-02T03:15:57Z")
From 538: Trump is underperforming his polling average by 3.9%; Cruz is overperforming by 3.9%, and Rubio is overperforming by 6.2%. ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/52 "2016-02-02T03:16:05Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Except that one of them was in single digits a while back and the other was leading every poll by huge margins. This. Sanders has won a huge victory tonight, even if he doesn’t squeak quite above Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/53 "2016-02-02T03:16:23Z")
R 99% reporting Cruz 28% Trump 24% Rubio 23% Carson finally dropped below 10% at the end. D 81% reporting Clinton 50% Sanders 49% ---
**Author:** ![Octarine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/22d042/32.png) [@Octarine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Octarine)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/54 "2016-02-02T03:18:16Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Exactly. It’s a huge upset. Plus the fact that the Iowa Democratic winner has in recent years been a good predictor of the nominee, so a 50-50 result may portend quite an interesting election season. PLUS, Bernie’s a solid win for New Hampshire - the last time someone won the nomination without Iowa or New Hampshire, their last name was, uh, Clinton. Again, doesn’t really mean anything, but it’ll add to both the negativity surrounding Hillary and greater exposure for Sanders. ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/55 "2016-02-02T03:27:17Z")
> [@Octarine](#): > > the last time someone won the nomination without Iowa or New Hampshire, their last name was, uh, Clinton. How’s Hillary on the sax? Don’t think she’ll need it, but might be nice to have it in her back pocket. I’m sure we can persuade Arsenio Hall to make yet another foray into late-night just for that. (Definitely do _not_ want anyone to ask her about her underwear, though.) ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/56 "2016-02-02T03:29:00Z")
Fox News reports Huckabee is dropping out. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/57 "2016-02-02T03:29:04Z")
Crud. I really wanted Cruz to be humiliated tonight. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/58 "2016-02-02T03:29:28Z")
Huckabee is [out](https://twitter.com/kbolten/status/694360826434711554), apparently. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/59 "2016-02-02T03:31:20Z")
Unsurprisingly ethanol is a very inefficient fuel source. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897/60 "2016-02-02T03:31:22Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Crud. I really wanted Cruz to be humiliated tonight. There, there. New Hampshire’s in a week. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses-are-underway/744897.md?page=4)