# Iowa Caucuses
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [January 4, 2012, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326 "2012-01-04T02:06:50Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/1 "2012-01-04T02:06:50Z")
Interesting start. Very tight between Paul, Romney, and Santorum. Bachmann and Perry are toast. Could be a shocker for Santorum. Romney finishing third would have to be a huge disappointment for him.
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### Author:  [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/2 "2012-01-04T02:18:15Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#):
>
> Could be a shocker for Santorum.
Looks like he started his turn as not-Romney at exactly the right time. I don’t know that he’s any more prepared for a long campaign (people and money) than any of the other not-Romney’s. (Paul is not a not-Romney; he’s sui generis.)
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### Author:  [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/3 "2012-01-04T02:22:07Z")
Meant to link this: [http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/results/live/2012-01-3](http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/results/live/2012-01-3)
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/4 "2012-01-04T02:26:26Z")
This really is the only interesting thing that ever happens in Iowa, isn’t it?
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### Author:  [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/5 "2012-01-04T02:28:50Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> This really is the only interesting thing that ever happens in Iowa, isn’t it?
Well, when you drive through it, you see all these signs: Welcome to East Nowhere, home town of \_\_\_ \_\_\_! Of course, \_\_\_ \_\_\_ shook the dust of East Nowhere off his feet as fast as he could and never looked back.
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### Author:  [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/6 "2012-01-04T02:30:16Z")
Gingrich really did crater, didn’t he? Perry has almost caught up with him.
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### Author:  [@The\_Niply\_Elder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Niply_Elder)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/7 "2012-01-04T02:35:29Z")
I think Paul is really benefiting that Santorum is cresting as not-Romney at just the right time. The not-Romney dynamic cycle doesn’t have a very predictable time constant, so this is an awesome break for Paul.
I mean I like Paul’s anti war stance, nothing of everything else in his politics, but if he continues to blaze this trail, we’ll all need a barrelful of Iowa popcorn.
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### Author:  [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/8 "2012-01-04T02:35:36Z")
Not sure if that NYT map of the colored in counties mean that all votes have been recorded or not, but you know that the vast majority of NW Iowa is going to go to Santorum. That’s where the majority of the crazies live.
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### Author:  [@Swords\_to\_Plowshares](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Swords_to_Plowshares)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/9 "2012-01-04T02:40:31Z")
The caucus system isn’t fair. If it’s close, we should have a Santorum run-off.
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### Author:  [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/10 "2012-01-04T02:43:42Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#):
>
> Not sure if that NYT map of the colored in counties mean that all votes have been recorded or not, but you know that the vast majority of NW Iowa is going to go to Santorum.
Mousing over the counties at [this site](http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/Primary/IA) shows that of the NW counties with results, you’re right. Except that Emmet County has provided 2/3 of the state’s entire vote for “Other”. Weird.
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### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/11 "2012-01-04T02:44:45Z")
> [@Frank](#):
>
> Mousing over the counties at [this site](http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/Primary/IA) shows that of the NW counties with results, you’re right. Except that Emmett County has provided 2/3 of the state’s entire vote for “Other”. Weird.
Are the Lizard People doing yet another write-in campaign?!
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### Author:  [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/12 "2012-01-04T02:52:27Z")
> [@Swords\_to\_Plowshares](#):
>
> The caucus system isn’t fair. If it’s close, we should have a Santorum run-off.
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#):
>
> Could be a shocker for Santorum.
It can’t run off if it’s plugged with a finger.
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### Author:  [@Antinor01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antinor01)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/13 "2012-01-04T03:13:13Z")
Bachmann in a ridiculously distant last place. I’m not sure whether to laugh or laugh harder.
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### Author:  [@ataraxy22](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ataraxy22)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/14 "2012-01-04T03:20:52Z")
> [@Swords\_to\_Plowshares](#):
>
> The caucus system isn’t fair. If it’s close, we should have a Santorum run-off.
Patience! Let all the results dribble out before you come to your conclusion about the santorum!
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### Author:  [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/15 "2012-01-04T03:40:55Z")
With 52% reporting, from [here](http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/results/iowa-caucuses-r?ref=fpblg):
```auto
Candidate votes %
Santorum 14,289 24.3
Romney 13,935 23.7
Paul 12,717 21.6
Newt 7,837 13.3
Perry 6,263 10.4
Bachmann 3,359 5.6
```
And nobody else breaking 1%.
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### Author:  [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/16 "2012-01-04T03:54:47Z")
With 88% of the vote in, Santorum leads. Romney is coming right up on Santorum’s ass, only 45 votes behind.
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### Author:  [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/17 "2012-01-04T03:55:02Z")
Romney is one hell of a weak candidate, but I don’t see how anyone else makes a race of this now. Really there were only two possible bad things that could have happened to him tonight:
1. He could have finished with well under 20% of the vote, or
2. either Gingrich or Perry could have managed a top-3 finish.
Neither of these has happened, and it’s hard to see how either Gingrich or Perry, the only remotely plausible alternatives to Mitt at this point, can continue the fight very long.
The one thing that might save Newt is if both Bachmann and Perry throw in the towel over the next few days. While Romney’s basically a shoo-in in NH, he might lose a few primaries down the road if the anti-Romney voters have fewer anti-Romneys to choose between.
The problem for Newt is that Paul’s not going away, and Santorum’s now in it for at least a few more weeks, so he’s not going to have the anti-Romney vote to himself anytime soon.
The other problem for Newt is that Romney and his Super-PAC will keep on throwing negative ads at him. It worked in Iowa, and will probably work in NH, SC, and wherever.
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### Author:  [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/18 "2012-01-04T03:58:08Z")
Wow. The people of Iowa really are that out of touch. _Santorum???_
Jesus H. Fucking Christ on a broken Segway. Just what are those people thinking?
According to the CNN page, 68% of the people voting are over 45.
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/19 "2012-01-04T03:59:49Z")
> [@Chimera](#):
>
> Wow. The people of Iowa really are that out of touch. _Santorum???_
Yup. Regardless of who actually wins, this makes the Iowa caucus seem a lot less relevant. Santorum’s not winning even if he gets the delegates tonight, and that’d be another strike on Iowa’s mixed track record.
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### Author:  [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)
#### Post date: [January 4, 2012, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326/20 "2012-01-04T04:01:06Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#):
>
> With 88% of the vote in, Santorum leads. Romney is coming right up on Santorum’s ass, only 45 votes behind.
Now they’re only 13 votes apart, and they’ve opened up real daylight over Paul, who’s 3,700 votes back. Newt’s and Perry’s percentages of the vote are basically unchanged from earlier, and Bachmann’s gone down a hair.
[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-caucuses/608326.md?page=2)