# Iowa Democratic bragging rights thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 15, 2016, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193 "2016-01-15T04:18:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/1 "2016-01-15T04:18:36Z")
Since we have one for the Republicans, let’s also have one for the suddently tight Democratic contest in Iowa. Here’s my prediction: Sanders 52 Clinton 45 O’Malley 3 ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/2 "2016-01-15T05:06:46Z")
Clinton: 58 Sanders: 39 O’Malley: 3 ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/3 "2016-01-15T06:04:24Z")
Clinton 56 Sanders 43 Josef Stalin 0.009 Heinrich Himmler 0.007 Charles Manson 0.006 Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi 0.002 Martin O’Malley 0.000000000000000000001 ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/4 "2016-01-15T06:39:28Z")
Clinton 51 Sanders 27 O’Malley 17 Florrick 4 ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/5 "2016-01-15T06:52:16Z")
Sanders 49.9 Clinton 49.7 O’Malley 0.4 The Clinton campaign will push the idea that if it had been one person one vote, if they didn’t redistribute all the nonviable O’Malley supporters, etc., she would have won. And even if O’Malley’s 5ish% in the polls shows up, he gets eliminated in any precinct where he doesn’t get at least 15% so 0.4 might be way too high. Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, and Bill Richardson all got _something_ in 2008, though, so maybe he’ll really shine and get as much as 1%. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/6 "2016-01-15T06:57:01Z")
O’Malley will definitely underperform in the polls, it’s just a question of by how much and who benefits. Richardson was at 6 but finished with 2 in in the final Des Moines Register poll. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/7 "2016-01-15T12:49:27Z")
Clinton 55 Sanders 44 OMalley 1 ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/8 "2016-01-15T12:57:38Z")
Clinton 52 Sanders 47 OMalley 1 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/9 "2016-01-15T13:16:03Z")
Clinton 50 Sanders 50 O’Malley 0 ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/10 "2016-01-15T20:18:05Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > Sanders 49.9 > Clinton 49.7 > O’Malley 0.4 > > The Clinton campaign will push the idea that if it had been one person one vote, if they didn’t redistribute all the nonviable O’Malley supporters, etc., she would have won. And even if O’Malley’s 5ish% in the polls shows up, he gets eliminated in any precinct where he doesn’t get at least 15% so 0.4 might be way too high. Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, and Bill Richardson all got _something_ in 2008, though, so maybe he’ll really shine and get as much as 1%. It will probably be more along the lines of Clinton getting enough of the “odd delegates” (i.e. if a precinct has 3 delegates available, Clinton gets 2 of them) to county conventions that, in the end, Clinton is forecast to win 27 national convention delegates to Sanders’s 17, and she will claim the victory - which, IIRC, is the opposite of what happened in Nevada in 2008 (where I think she claimed that having the most votes made her the winner, even though Obama was projected to get more delegates). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/11 "2016-01-16T03:10:15Z")
Getting more votes probably gets you more momentum for the next contest, so it’s probably smart to promote the fact that you got more votes. It’s true that in a delegate race it’s the delegates that count, but most primary elections don’t come down to the last primaries. Clinton-Obama was a pretty rare case. Besides, any result that looks to favor Sanders, whether more delegates or more votes, will make the media start reporting as if it’s 2008 all over again, which is not what the Clinton campaign wants. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/12 "2016-01-16T08:10:04Z")
O’Malley 79 Clinton 19 Sanders 2 (Hey, probably not, but I’ll win so big if I’m right!) ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 8:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/13 "2016-01-16T08:15:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Getting more votes probably gets you more momentum for the next contest, so it’s probably smart to promote the fact that you got more votes. That’s true in a primary, but the system for the Iowa Democrats is so wacky that I think the only numbers we actually get are the delegates. Anything resembling “votes” has to be reverse engineered based on turnout in each precinct. That’s why I think there’s room for a loser to try to claim more “votes,” since they get to do their own math. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/14 "2016-01-16T10:03:03Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > O’Malley 79 > Clinton 19 > Sanders 2 > > (Hey, probably not, but I’ll win so big if I’m right!) It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility for someone to come back and win in Iowa when they aren’t expected to, but not starting from 5% two weeks before. If O’Malley was in third with even 15%, it would be possible. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/15 "2016-01-16T15:17:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility for someone to come back and win in Iowa when they aren’t expected to, but not starting from 5% two weeks before. If O’Malley was in third with even 15%, it would be possible. Yeah but suppose if in the next two weeks it is revealed that Chelsea is really Bernie and Hillary’s love child? ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/16 "2016-01-16T22:00:49Z")
I have no idea how an Iowan thinks. I’ll guess: 51/49 with Clinton just edging out Sanders ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2016, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/17 "2016-01-17T01:55:28Z")
Clinton: 51% Sanders: 48% O’Malley: 1% ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2016, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/18 "2016-01-17T02:01:57Z")
All I’ll do is look at 538, and make a prediction between their poll numbers and poll+ numbers. I’ll just give Clinton a nice even 50, and go from there, so Clinton 50 Sanders 43 O’Malley 7 ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/19 "2016-02-01T02:39:49Z")
Average Doper results for the Democratic Caucus (Omitting the O’Malley = 79% submission): High/Low Clinton 58/45 Sanders 52/27 O’Malley 17/0 Mean Clinton 51.7 Sanders 44.5 O’Malley 3.2 Median Clinton 51 Sanders 46 O’Malley 1 ---
**Author:** ![elninost0rm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ed655f/32.png) [@elninost0rm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elninost0rm)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193/20 "2016-02-02T15:15:10Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Clinton 50 > Sanders 50 > O’Malley 0 Wow, good call. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iowa-democratic-bragging-rights-thread/743193.md?page=2)