# Iran agreement and it's "spirit" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 21, 2017, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900 "2017-09-21T16:57:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2017, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/21 "2017-09-24T12:08:32Z")
> [@](#): > > “Regrettably, since the agreement was confirmed, we have seen anything but a more peaceful, stable region,” Tillerson said, on Wednesday. “The technical aspects” may have been honored by Tehran, he said, “but, in the broader context, the aspiration has not.” Of course, Iran , Korea or anyone else who wants to go down this road can, with some justice, make the same accusation against the original nuclear powers in relation to their commitment under Article VI of the Non-Proliferation Treaty “to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control”. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2017, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/22 "2017-09-24T12:15:52Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > It seems that the IAEA doesn’t have a very good track record of detecting clandestine nuclear programs. Maybe we can put Mossad in charge of the inspections? Conservatives have never forgiven Hans Blix and the UN Inspectors for failing to discover the imaginary weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. A good inspector would have been able to find WMDs whether they were there or not, that’s what we pay them for. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2017, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/23 "2017-09-24T13:34:21Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > [Operation Outside the Box - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orchard#Initial_scepticism_about_the_US_and_Israeli_claims) > > [Libya and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libya_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_program) Taking this at face value, that’s two misses out of… 10 attempts? 20? 100? The denominator matters here. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2017, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/24 "2017-09-24T15:08:41Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > Taking this at face value, that’s two misses out of… 10 attempts? 20? 100? The denominator matters here. I don’t know what the denominator is in this case (and I’m not convinced it matters very much when a miss can result in a rogue state with nuclear weapons). We have an example in this thread of a win for the IAEA (North Korea’s nuclear program in the '90’s), so I suppose they’re 1/3 from the examples we have before us, but I suspect that’s an incomplete accounting on both sides. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2017, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/25 "2017-09-24T16:43:05Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t know what the denominator is in this case (and I’m not convinced it matters very much when a miss can result in a rogue state with nuclear weapons). We have an example in this thread of a win for the IAEA (North Korea’s nuclear program in the '90’s), so I suppose they’re 1/3 from the examples we have before us, but I suspect that’s an incomplete accounting on both sides. I guess I’m hesitant to throw out an organization that apparently most of the international community trusts based on a handful of flubs. Although reading that first link, I don’t quite see how that counts as a “flub”. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2017, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/26 "2017-09-24T17:06:59Z")
Neither counts as a flub, of course, since in both cases IAEA lacked access and therefore couldn’t do its job. In the case of Iran, however, IAEA _does_ have access, and _can_ do its job - all thanks to the deal. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2017, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/27 "2017-09-24T17:24:26Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > Neither counts as a flub, of course, since in both cases IAEA lacked access and therefore couldn’t do its job. > > In the case of Iran, however, IAEA _does_ have access, and _can_ do its job - all thanks to the deal. So, we pull out of the Iran deal, IAEA loses access, without supervision Iran develops nuclear capability, then the conservatives chalk it up as another failure on IAEA’s part. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2017, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/28 "2017-09-24T18:04:03Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > So, we pull out of the Iran deal, IAEA loses access, without supervision Iran develops nuclear capability, then the conservatives chalk it up as another failure on IAEA’s part. Don’t forget “and get to nuke Iran into a glass parking lot”! ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2017, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/29 "2017-10-05T20:02:46Z")
> [@](#): > > President Trump plans to announce next week that he will “decertify” the international nuclear deal with Iran, saying it is not in the national interest of the United States and kicking the issue to a reluctant Congress, people briefed on an emerging White House strategy for Iran said Thursday. > > The move would mark the first step in a process that could eventually result in the resumption of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which would blow up a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear activities that the country reached in 2015 with the U.S. and five other nations. > **[Trump plans to declare that Iran nuclear deal is not in the national interest](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-plans-to-declare-that-iran-nuclear-deal-is-not-in-the-national-interest/2017/10/05/825c916e-a9e3-11e7-b3aa-c0e2e1d41e38_story.html)** > > The move would punt the issue to a reluctant Congress and could lead to blowing up the agreement altogether. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2017, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/30 "2017-10-05T20:44:19Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t know what the denominator is in this case (and I’m not convinced it matters very much when a miss can result in a rogue state with nuclear weapons). We have an example in this thread of a win for the IAEA (North Korea’s nuclear program in the '90’s), so I suppose they’re 1/3 from the examples we have before us, but I suspect that’s an incomplete accounting on both sides. No, it’s an incomplete accounting on one side. Again, _neither Libya nor Syria were under UN inspection mandates_. It’s like blaming the FBI for failing to foil a bank robbery in London. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2017, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/31 "2017-10-05T22:30:49Z")
Yay, let’s increase the chances both that Iran gets a nuke and that we start a war. Good job, Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2017, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/32 "2017-10-06T11:40:22Z")
My hope is that even if Congress decides to take the Americans out of the deal, the rest of the parties involved will still honour it. Let the Americans whine from the sidelines, while the rest of us get rich together. If not, however, and the Americans not only manage to shred the deal altogether, but also begin to get the old “coalition of the willing” gang back together again to start pounding the war drum once more, then I hope Iran _does_ get a nuke after all, and that post-haste. By then, it may well be the only way to prevent a calamity that’d make Iraq look like child’s play. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2017, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/33 "2017-10-06T14:30:26Z")
This is just going to result in the USA being further separated from the international community; the agreement with Iran has as much chance of falling as the Paris agreement on climate change, or the international cooperation with regard Syria - the world moves on without the USA. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2017, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900/34 "2017-10-06T14:52:32Z")
I agree. The rest of the world didn’t really have Iran’s nuclear program as a top concern until recently, mostly because the evidence that Iran’s nuclear program had malign intentions was either not there or somewhat questionable. So the US does the hard work to get everyone - including Russia and China - all rowing in the same direction. Now, the reasons to believe that Iran’s nuclear program is a threat are much, much weaker than they were even two years ago. Yet the US seeks to start rowing in a different direction? Ain’t nobody going to follow. And with the rest of the world easing sanctions on Iran, it’s quite clear that even if the US implements new, super duper sanctions on Iran, Iran’s economy is likely to grow no matter what Trump wants to do. And economic growth was the main thing Iran wanted out of this deal anyway! Throw on top of that that everyone else knows full well that Trump literally has no understanding of what the deal is or what it does. See for example, when Trump met with Macron, Trump repeatedly insisted something to the effect that the deal allows Iran to have a nuclear weapon in five years. Which is simply not true, no matter whether you think diplomacy with Iran is a good or bad idea as a matter of principle. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-agreement-and-its-spirit/796900.md?page=1)