# Iran and the Strait of Hormuz stories **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [January 12, 2008, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303 "2008-01-12T17:28:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Anomalous\_Reading](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Anomalous\_Reading](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anomalous_Reading)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/1 "2008-01-12T17:28:06Z")
I’m new to SMDB, more or less, and have never pitted anything. I’d like to think everyone is familiar with the [recent debate](http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18022198) between the US and Iran about what happened in the Strait of Hormuz. What annoys me the most is that I don’t feel comfortable believing the US story of what happened there. It has, thus far, seemed very clear to me that Bush et. al. WANT a war with Iran. They seemed a bit miffed that Iran was cleared of having a nuclear weapons program… I half wonder if this is another attempt at getting a cause for war. If you wonder if I’m being just a bit tin-foil-hattish about this… We’ve alread had one trumped up war (see Iraq) from this administration. What’s to keep them from a second? And that I even HAVE TO think about that, pisses me right off. ---
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/2 "2008-01-12T17:55:51Z")
Not much to say. I can believe that the reports put forward by the US are accurate, and that the Iranian gunboats behaved exactly as described, without overt provocation by US forces. But that’s a very different thing from saying that I don’t wonder whether the US/Administration is trying to spin this for a Gulf of Tonkin incident. Nor from saying that I’m convinced that what the US has described as happening is the truth. Like you, I wish I didn’t have to try to evaluate it for that factor, as well. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/3 "2008-01-12T18:17:52Z")
Recent Pit thread: [Five Iranian Boats threaten 3 US Navy ships](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=450618) Bush and most of the [Republican Presidential Candidates](http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1024949820080111) are milkin this for all they can get. Of course, everyone else hates America. Why do _you_ hate America, **Anomalous Reading**? ---
**Author:** ![Anomalous\_Reading](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Anomalous\_Reading](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anomalous_Reading)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/4 "2008-01-12T18:34:05Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] Of course, everyone else hates America. Why do _you_ hate America, **Anomalous Reading**? [/QUOTE] LOL - nice ad hom… Call me back when you’re rational? Or more creative… I don’t actually **need** too reply any further, do I?!? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/5 "2008-01-12T18:36:50Z")
Recalibrate your irony detection apparatus. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/6 "2008-01-12T18:48:36Z")
[QUOTE=Squink] Recent Pit thread: [Five Iranian Boats threaten 3 US Navy ships](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=450618) [/qUOTE] Five against _THREE_? How is that fair? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/7 "2008-01-12T18:51:07Z")
Think of it as five Andy Dick against three Chuck Norris. ---
**Author:** ![Anomalous\_Reading](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Anomalous\_Reading](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anomalous_Reading)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/8 "2008-01-12T18:53:37Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Recalibrate your irony detection apparatus. [/QUOTE] Cool, and happily. Sorry for the return volley then… I’ve run into more than enough people elsewhere who DO think so… simply. In fact the lack of critical thinking is why I left… Thanks for the correction. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/9 "2008-01-12T19:00:20Z")
Actually, an assumption. In my experience, **Squink** isn’t a knuckle walking idjit. But that was yesterday… ---
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/10 "2008-01-12T19:02:17Z")
Welcome to the Dope. I hope you find your time here more enjoyable and less bothered by simple thinking. It may still prove exasperating, but it’s not as often for simple things. 🙂 There are a couple of standing jokes that have become cliches here in the Pit. “Why do you hate America?” is one. Another is, “Won’t someone think of the children?” In general, when someone uses those, or similar constructions, it’s worth asking yourself whether they could be meant in an ironic, or sardonic, manner. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/11 "2008-01-12T19:06:35Z")
Cite? ---
**Author:** ![OtakuLoki](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ac8455/32.png) [@OtakuLoki](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OtakuLoki)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/12 "2008-01-12T19:09:23Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Cite? [/QUOTE] My post is my cite! 😛 How many more cliches should we include for our new friend? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/13 "2008-01-12T19:19:29Z")
[QUOTE=Anomalous Reading] If you wonder if I’m being just a bit tin-foil-hattish about this… We’ve alread had one trumped up war (see Iraq) from this administration. What’s to keep them from a second? [/quote] Simple. We don’t have the troops to front another war unless we exit Iraq, and I don’t see that happening. > [@](#): > > And that I even HAVE TO think about that, pisses me right off. Well, that might say something more about you than about anything else. Seriously. Folks have been predicting a war with Iran for at least 2 years now. It ain’t gonna happen, because we ain’t got the troops to make it happen. Bush is indeed a poopy-head, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to start another war. Unless, of course, you can sketch out how that would happen, exactly. How we would invade a country with 3x the population of Iraq, much more difficult terrain, with not even the semblance of a _casus belli_, and no willingness of Congress to go along with such a plan. And I’ve still got an open invitation, along with **Ravenman** , to place a bet with anyone who thinks we will. ---
**Author:** ![Anomalous\_Reading](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Anomalous\_Reading](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anomalous_Reading)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/14 "2008-01-12T19:40:41Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Bush is indeed a poopy-head, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to start another war. Unless, of course, you can sketch out how that would happen, exactly. How we would invade a country with 3x the population of Iraq, much more difficult terrain, with not even the semblance of a _casus belli_, and no willingness of Congress to go along with such a plan. [/QUOTE] Ok… I’m not predicting a war with Iran. I’m saying I don’t trust the motives of the current administration. Would congress go along with it? Doubtful, but even the likes of Hillary voted to deem the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist group - a sensible stand, but given the saber rattling we were seeing from Bush, that vote scared me. I don’t trust Bush to be reasonable. Nor Cheney. And then they surround themselves with ideologues or “loyal” employees… Add that the pentagon is loyal, in some way, to the current admin - as are the intelligence agencies, imo. All we’d need to do is start taking out the terrorists from Iran, end up chasing them a bit hard, do something modestly ambiguous… and iran would spin it as an act of provocation, as would we. Most decisions aren’t one decision - but instead a sequence of smaller decisions. This is how, if it were to happen at all, I think it would happen. But I consider it unlikely anyhow. All I can hope is Bush is praying long and hard over his decisions./sarcasm ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/15 "2008-01-12T19:54:03Z")
Another thing you need to consider is that the Iranian government’s biggest problem is not with the US, but with its own people-- especially over the economy. Iran has lots of oil, just like Saudi Arabia, but their oil is much more expensive to extract. IIRC, it’s something like $2/barrel for S.A. and $40 for Iran. With their economy in the dumper, they need to crank up the price of oil as much as possible. So, what happens every time we have one of these “confrontations” and people get nervous about more instability in the region? The Iranian people, like most people around the globe, will tend to rally around their government, and the price of oil goes up. Now, I’m not saying I know that is the explanation, but I think it’s just as plausible, if not more so, than the idea that Bush wants war with Iran. The fact is, the Iranian government has a vested interest in the perception that there is deep tension between Iran and the US. Of course, if Bush had any sense, he’d be downplaying any talk of such tension, but he seems too stoopid to do that. If the administration wanted to do something about the price of oil, the best thing they could do is announce that we were beginning the process to renew diplomatic relations with Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Dave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/46a35a/32.png) [@Great\_Dave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Dave)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/16 "2008-01-12T19:55:14Z")
Do air strikes count? I’d say the odds on that are much different than on a full out war. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/17 "2008-01-12T19:57:18Z")
[QUOTE=Anomalous Reading] This is how, if it were to happen at all, I think it would happen. [/QUOTE] Exactly, and all that is necessary for evil to succeed is that good men do nothing. This makes me a little suspicious of those who attempt to downplay the saber-rattling fooforaw over incidents like this. Doing nothing, or not commenting seems like precisely the _wrong_ approach. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/18 "2008-01-12T20:04:28Z")
[QUOTE=Great Dave] Do air strikes count? I’d say the odds on that are much different than on a full out war. [/QUOTE] You know, I’ve been saying for a long time that it wouldn’t surprise me if Bush launched a few air strikes against Iran, but I’m starting to think that there is little chance that will happen now. With the recent NIE downplaying their nuclear program, and with Bush launching this new M.E. peace initiative, there are lots of reasons to think Bush will be more restrained in his response to Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Anomalous\_Reading](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b3f665/32.png) [@Anomalous\_Reading](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anomalous_Reading)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/19 "2008-01-12T20:35:22Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] You know, I’ve been saying for a long time that it wouldn’t surprise me if Bush launched a few air strikes against Iran, but I’m starting to think that there is little chance that will happen now. With the recent NIE downplaying their nuclear program, and with Bush launching this new M.E. peace initiative, there are lots of reasons to think Bush will be more restrained in his response to Iran. [/QUOTE] I’d like to agree. And tend to. He’s made aggression look less likely. I’d really like to see it stay that way. Even so, I don’t like that I can’t look at the footage and wonder who is telling the more complete truth. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2008, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303/20 "2008-01-12T21:03:04Z")
[QUOTE=Anomalous Reading] …Even so, I don’t like that I can’t look at the footage and wonder who is telling the more complete truth. [/QUOTE] This is the point that I would _think_ everyone here would agree on. It’s very hard to take anything coming from this government at face value, and it’s disgusting that that’s the case. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-and-the-strait-of-hormuz-stories/433303.md?page=2)