# Iran declines invitation to call Trump about Trump's concerns: Trump the statesman, part 2? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 10, 2019, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786 "2019-05-10T16:28:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/201 "2019-06-22T01:04:29Z")
Trump expects us to believe that he: Monitored the situation as it developed Felt concern about the lives of Iranian military personnel Weighed the consequences of a disproportionate response Called the strikes off in a display of mercy No way. Trump was probably in the White House shouting “death to the goddamn A-rabs!” (I know Iranians are not Arabs but I bet Trump doesn’t) and some advisor pointed out that if there is a war, all the news coverage will switch to that rather than Trump’s latest tantrum. That’s why the strikes were called off. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/202 "2019-06-22T01:33:17Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > Trump expects us to believe that he: > > Monitored the situation as it developed > Felt concern about the lives of Iranian military personnel > Weighed the consequences of a disproportionate response > Called the strikes off in a display of mercy > > No way. Trump was probably in the White House shouting “death to the goddamn A-rabs!” (I know Iranians are not Arabs but I bet Trump doesn’t) and some advisor pointed out that if there is a war, all the news coverage will switch to that rather than Trump’s latest tantrum. That’s why the strikes were called off. I doubt this is true. I think Trump talks a lot of shit but doesn’t want to get his hands dirty. He can grope women half his size and talk shit about an old (and now dead) John McCain. But this is the guy who got repeated deferment for bone spurs. Sure, Bush was a draft dodger too, but his daddy wasn’t and by the time he got to be president, war was pretty much a family enterprise. Trump isn’t a killer. But John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are reptiles. They masturbate to videos of nuclear explosions. There is no plan to invade and occupy Iran. Moreover, if there is a war, Trump _must_ win it. If he doesn’t, he gets impeached and he spends the rest of his life in exile and/or prison. What does that tell you? It tells me the only plan we have is to bomb the ever living shit out of Iran, and to make an example out of them for the rest of the world. John Bolton isn’t just a neo-con; he’s a neo-con on roids. He’s one of those who sits in a bar and says “America stopped fighting real wars, stopped fighting to win 'back in '45” - that kind of shit. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/203 "2019-06-22T14:27:47Z")
AP News: [Iranian hackers wage cyber campaign amid tensions with US](https://apnews.com/f01492c3dbd14856bce41d776248921f) > [@](#): > > In recent weeks, hackers believed to be working for the Iranian government have targeted U.S. government agencies, as well as sectors of the economy, including oil and gas, sending waves of spear-phishing emails, according to representatives of cybersecurity companies CrowdStrike and FireEye, which regularly track such activity. > [@](#): > > CrowdStrike shared images of the spear-phishing emails with The AP. > > One such email that was confirmed by FireEye appeared to come from the Executive Office of the President and seemed to be trying to recruit people for an economic adviser position. Another email was more generic and appeared to include details on updating Microsoft Outlook’s global address book. > > The Iranian actor involved in the cyberattack, dubbed “Refined Kitten” by CrowdStrike, has for years targeted the U.S. energy and defense sectors, as well as allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, said Adam Meyers, vice president of intelligence at CrowdStrike. > [@](#): > > “This is not a remote war (anymore),” said Sergio Caltagirone, vice president of threat intelligence at Dragos, Inc. “This is one where Iranians could quote unquote bring the war home to the United States.” > > Caltagirone said as nations increase their abilities to engage offensively in cyberspace, the ability of the United States to pick a fight internationally and have that fight stay out of the United States physically is increasingly reduced. > > The U.S. has had a contentious cyber history with Iran. > > In 2010, the so-called Stuxnet virus disrupted the operation of thousands of centrifuges at a uranium enrichment facility in Iran. Iran accused the U.S. and Israel of trying to undermine its nuclear program through covert operations. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2019, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/204 "2019-06-22T17:11:36Z")
Isn’t that a shame? If Trump had made friends with Iran they could help him find Hillary’s emails! ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/205 "2019-06-23T05:45:38Z")
The comments in the thread are all very interesting. Thanks! I do have one question: **_Why_ would Russia want to keep the Strait of Hormuz open?** Sure, they’d love it if they could somehow get credit for defusing a crisis; and sure, they’re happy if Trump’s stupidity causes some to look up to Russia as the saner power. But wouldn’t they be secretly delighted, both geopolitically and economically, if petroleum exports from the Gulf became more expensive? ---
**Author:** ![NDP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ndp/32/55_2.png) [@NDP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NDP)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/206 "2019-06-23T07:10:45Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > The comments in the thread are all very interesting. Thanks! > > I do have one question: **_Why_ would Russia want to keep the Strait of Hormuz open?** Sure, they’d love it if they could somehow get credit for defusing a crisis; and sure, they’re happy if Trump’s stupidity causes some to look up to Russia as the saner power. But wouldn’t they be secretly delighted, both geopolitically and economically, if petroleum exports from the Gulf became more expensive? Not to mention how delighted Putin would be if the US rushes in alone without Europe’s support thereby further alienating us from our allies. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/207 "2019-06-23T12:26:43Z")
I think Putin looks at this as something he doesn’t have to waste any resources on except to monitor things because no matter what happens, it’s all good for Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/208 "2019-06-23T12:34:01Z")
Checking the AP: [US struck Iranian military computers this week](https://apnews.com/f01492c3dbd14856bce41d776248921f): > [@](#): > > Two officials told The Associated Press that the strikes were conducted with approval from Trump. A third official confirmed the broad outlines of the strike. All spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the operation. > > The cyberattacks — a contingency plan developed over weeks amid escalating tensions — disabled Iranian computer systems that controlled its rocket and missile launchers, the officials said. Two of the officials said the attacks, which specifically targeted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps computer system, were provided as options after Iranian forces blew up two oil tankers earlier this month. > > The IRGC, which was designated a foreign terrorist group by the Trump administration earlier this year, is a branch of the Iranian military. And [John Bolton opened his furry maw today](https://apnews.com/f5871d3a11444fb0a1e11fa2b8d0274d) too: > [@](#): > > U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said Sunday that Iran should not “mistake U.S. prudence and discretion for weakness,” after the U.S. abruptly called off military strikes against Iran in response to the shooting down of an unmanned American surveillance drone. > > Bolton’s tough message seemed to be aimed not only at Tehran, but also at reassuring key U.S. allies that the White House remains committed to maintaining pressure on Iran. Israel, along with Arab countries in the Gulf, considers Iran to be their greatest threat, and Trump’s last-minute about face appears to have raised questions about U.S. willingness to use force against the Islamic Republic. > [@](#): > > “No one has granted them a hunting license in the Middle East. As President Trump said on Friday our military is rebuilt, new and ready to go,” Bolton said in Jerusalem alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, himself a vocal critic of Iran over the years. > > “And as he made clear yesterday, referring to his earlier remarks, the president said, ‘I just stopped the strike from going forward at this time,’” Bolton added. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/209 "2019-06-23T12:53:34Z")
Putin, like Iran, wants to limit US influence in the region. On one hand, Russia doesn’t want to encourage more American adventurism and nation-building in the Middle East, particularly since the US would likely encourage the overthrow of the authoritarian regime of the Ayotallah and replacing it with a regime that is more pro-democracy and sympathetic to Western values (or at least willing to consider more Western influence). But as most of us have already opined, the likelihood of blow-back and failure is rather high. If the US initiates a war which ends up resulting in the closure of Hormuz, then that would be critically disruptive to markets worldwide. There are all kinds of moderately bad scenarios, but a really bad one would would be especially punishing for countries like Japan, which is heavily populated and relies a lot on the importation of global oil. Another outcome of a worst-case scenario is that it would also hurt the US, the Americas, and Europe. Europe would potentially lean more on Russia for its energy – like a lot more, thereby threatening the existence of NATO and the EU. You’d also have a world that’s mad as fuck at the United States for crashing their economies without any real security justification for doing so. Our economic, political, and security alliances would be badly strained, with the possibility of street demonstrations putting intense pressure on governments to put distance between their governments and the US. In the long term, Russia and China benefit; the US loses bigly. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/210 "2019-06-23T12:58:12Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Checking the AP: [US struck Iranian military computers this week](https://apnews.com/f01492c3dbd14856bce41d776248921f):And [John Bolton opened his furry maw today](https://apnews.com/f5871d3a11444fb0a1e11fa2b8d0274d) too: I meant to address it earlier, but the apparent confusion and dissonance from within the WH that’s spilling into public view is what makes this situation particularly dangerous. As has been pointed out before, when you’re dealing with a potential conflict, you want lines to be clear. You want to avoid ambiguity. You want adversaries to know that if you do A, then B will follow. Trump may view this as a card game at one of his failed casinos, but this kind of bullshit poker is lethal in the real world. Right now, Trump’s dithering between Bolton and Pompeo, who are telling him he looks like a ‘cuck’ and a pussy for not attacking Iran, and being told in no uncertain terms that a war with Iran would be the end of his presidency and probably mean jail time after his exit. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/211 "2019-06-23T13:16:41Z")
How would it mean jail time? ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/212 "2019-06-23T13:51:30Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > How would it mean jail time? Once he’s out, he can be indicted _before_ the various statutes of limitation run out. On the other hand, if stays in for another 5+ years, they’ll expire before he does. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/213 "2019-06-23T13:55:43Z")
Uness he gives himself a pardon. But the statement was that war ith Iran could mean jail time. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/214 "2019-06-23T14:06:08Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Uness he gives himself a pardon. But the statement was that war ith Iran could mean jail time. In the sense that he would be out of office and could be prosecuted. He wouldn’t be prosecuted for the war itself ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/215 "2019-06-23T14:14:34Z")
So you think Pompeo is telling him that war with Iran will bring impeachment? I don’t know bout that. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/216 "2019-06-23T14:19:53Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > So you think Pompeo is telling him that war with Iran will bring impeachment? I don’t know bout that. No, not Pompeo - he and Bolton are hardliners to the bitter end, and would probably advocate expanding presidential power domestically. I tend to believe that not everyone in the WH or in GOP circles believes that this is going to be a viable plan, though. Exactly who the naysayers are, I couldn’t tell you. ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/217 "2019-06-23T16:09:22Z")
_The Atlantic_: [The Iranian Hedgehog vs. the American Fox](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/us-iran-conflict-driven-trump-and-khamenei/592297/) > [@](#): > > Among world leaders today, few hedgehogs are more implacable than Ayatollah Khamenei. Hedgehogs, Berlin argued, “relate everything to a single central vision … a single, universal, organizing principle in terms of which alone all that they are and say has significance.” In this spirit, Khamenei’s organizing principle throughout his 30-year rule as supreme leader has been “resistance” against America. > … > For Khamenei, “resistance” against “global arrogance”—his moniker for American imperialism— is both an ideology and a strategic doctrine. “Resistance,” he said, “unlike surrender, leads to the retreat of the enemy. When the enemy bullies you, if you take a step back, he will undoubtedly advance. The way to stop him from advancing is to resist.” Consistent with Khamenei’s philosophy, Iran has not responded to Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign with concessions, but rather by sowing chaos in the region and threatening to restart its nuclear program. > … > Reaching a deal—or at least averting a conflict—will require Khamenei to acquire the flexibility of a fox, and Trump to adopt the strategic patience and resolve of a hedgehog. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2019, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/218 "2019-06-23T23:15:43Z")
[Pompeo is busy warmongering in the Middle East](https://apnews.com/89a12194b481401ba290d34ec572b984): > [@](#): > > Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday he wants to build a global coalition against Iran during urgent consultations in the Middle East, following a week of crisis that saw the United States pull back from the brink of a military strike on Iran. > > Pompeo spoke as he left Washington for Saudi Arabia, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Sunni Arab allies that are alarmed by Shiite Iran’s increasing assertiveness and are working to its influence in the region. His stops in Jeddah and Abu Dhabi were hastily arranged late last week as additions to a trip to India from where he will join President Donald Trump in Japan and South Korea. But they were not announced until immediately before his departure in a sign of fast-moving and unpredictable developments. > > “We’ll be talking with them about how to make sure that we are all strategically aligned, and how we can build out a global coalition, a coalition not only throughout the Gulf states, but in Asia and in Europe, that understands this challenge as it is prepared to push back against the world’s largest state sponsor of terror,” Pompeo said about Iran. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/219 "2019-06-24T01:36:25Z")
I wrote it somewhere else, but I’ll write it again: Usually, it’s the advisers who are brought in to rein in the president’s impulses and who provide more realistic assessments of how his policies would play out in reality. In this administration, it’s the president who is checking the fanaticism of his advisers. And that “check” is only as strong as his mood on any given day. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2019, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786/220 "2019-06-24T01:39:26Z")
> [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](#): > > _The Atlantic_: [The Iranian Hedgehog vs. the American Fox](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/us-iran-conflict-driven-trump-and-khamenei/592297/) Understand the reason why the Ayatollah came to power in the first place: to resist American meddling and intervention in Iranian affairs. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-declines-invitation-to-call-trump-about-trumps-concerns-trump-the-statesman-part-2/833786.md?page=12)