# Iran: More sanctions now or wait? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 19, 2013, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300 "2013-11-19T22:23:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2013, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/121 "2013-11-29T18:40:33Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > It was dated 11-24 Your 2nd link: \*Home Misleading Statement on Iran’s 20 Percent Low Enriched Uranium Conversion ISIS Reports Misleading Statement on Iran’s 20 Percent Low Enriched Uranium Conversion by David Albright and Christina Walrond September 13, 2013\* Emphasis added. Your first cite says nothing about “20%”. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2013, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/122 "2013-11-29T18:44:18Z")
The 2nd cite refers to the ability to reconvert altered material. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2013, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/123 "2013-11-29T19:05:49Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > The 2nd cite refers to the ability to reconvert altered material. Except that Iran currently does not have that capability. Look. This “deal” is only an interim step to buy some bargaining time for both sides. It’s not the final deal. We will know in 6 months what the landscape looks like, and Congress is going to come down hard on Obama if he tries and let this go beyond 6 months without getting what they feel we need to get. Say what you will about Obama, but Congress is extremely tough on Iran. They are not going to let things slide. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2013, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/124 "2013-11-29T19:15:50Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > this agreement literally buys them time to complete the other components needed. That’s one of my biggest concerns. Sometimes in negotiation it makes sense to give the other side breathing room. But only if either (1) you yourself will get something of equal or greater value; or (2) you are satisfied that the other side will use its breathing room in good faith. I don’t see what the West is getting out of this interim deal which is so valuable compared to what Iran is getting out of it. Nor do I see solid evidence that Iran is serious about giving up its aim to develop nuclear weapons. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2013, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/125 "2013-11-30T05:37:39Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Except that Iran currently does not have that capability. per who? Pakistan was giving out nuclear technology. who knows what Iran has. > [@John\_Mace](#): > > Look. This “deal” is only an interim step to buy some bargaining time for both sides. It’s not the final deal. We will know in 6 months what the landscape looks like, and Congress is going to come down hard on Obama if he tries and let this go beyond 6 months without getting what they feel we need to get. Say what you will about Obama, but Congress is extremely tough on Iran. They are not going to let things slide. Congress can’t change the sanctions without Obama’s vote. I’d rather keep the sanctions on because it puts internal pressure on the political system which is the easiest way to bring it down. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2013, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/126 "2013-11-30T10:31:42Z")
It isn’t our system to bring down, its theirs. I think it would be good if we got that through our heads. Woulda have even better if we had figured it out fifty years ago. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2013, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/127 "2013-11-30T12:32:03Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yes. > I have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about, nor any idea how that related to the post of mine that you quoted-- other than that you don’t like Republicans. It is a reaponse to your comment… > [@](#): > > “Death to America” is a convenient catch-phrase for the rulers who want to distract the populace from what a shitty job they are doing ruling the place. If America died, they’d have to find a new villain to blame for their incompetence. Which is US neocon-driven hype and fearmongering in hopes of convincing Americans to support the idea of bombing Iran over nuclear power. What you do not appear to deal with is that a neocon driven campaign to bomb Iran out of having even a peaceful nuclear power program and capability is terrible policy because of the moderates in Iran support for it. But if you do not wish to discuss this part of the issue because you oddly support the neocon side of it I understand your dilemma. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2013, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/128 "2013-11-30T14:05:57Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > per who? Pakistan was giving out nuclear technology. who knows what Iran has. In the absence of the agreement, there would be no substantive IAEA inspections to confirm what Iran has. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2013, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/129 "2013-11-30T14:57:34Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > It is a reaponse to your comment… > > Which is US neocon-driven hype and fearmongering in hopes of convincing Americans to support the idea of bombing Iran over nuclear power. > > What you do not appear to deal with is that a neocon driven campaign to bomb Iran out of having even a peaceful nuclear power program and capability is terrible policy because of the moderates in Iran support for it. > > But if you do not wish to discuss this part of the issue because you oddly support the neocon side of it I understand your dilemma. How on earth you got that out of my post I can only guess. You would do best to stick to what I post, and not what you imagine I might be thinking since, in most cases, you will be wrong. However, if this is another attempt to get everyone to not only agree with you on the issue, but also agree on some unique “reasoning” you have used to get to your position, I’ll decline to play that game. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2013, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/130 "2013-11-30T23:02:20Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > In the absence of the agreement, there would be no substantive IAEA inspections to confirm what Iran has. They’ve had inspections all along. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/131 "2013-12-01T01:06:10Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > They’ve had inspections all along. Once again, you can’t have it both ways. Either IAEA inspections have been sufficient, or they don’t know what the Iranians are up to. Since the agreement specifically increases IAEA access to nuclear sites (including inspector access to existing facilities, new declarations regarding the Arak reactor which could be used to produce plutonium, and new access centrifuge production sites, among other things), surely the P5 did not insist than Iran agree to things that were already happening. But again, I’m sure you’re not here to argue the substance. It’s just another episode in the “adopt any line of argument that is critical of Obama” road show. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/132 "2013-12-01T01:19:42Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > How on earth you got that out of my post I can only guess. You would do best to stick to what I post, and not what you imagine I might be thinking since, in most cases, you will be wrong. > > However, if this is another attempt to get everyone to not only agree with you on the issue, but also agree on some unique “reasoning” you have used to get to your position, I’ll decline to play that game. What you think about unique reasoning has nothing to do with what I’m telling you. There is nothing unique about it. When the deal was announced it was two thirds were in favor of diplomacy - I just saw a poll today that favoring diplomacy is now an even split with a bunch of undecideds. And since you and Magiver prefer to knock the diplomacy as a sideshow by Iran then we must thank you in part for spreading the neocon war hype. And I have. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/133 "2013-12-01T01:25:54Z")
I never said diplomacy was a sideshow. You made that up. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/134 "2013-12-01T01:38:37Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Once again, you can’t have it both ways. Either IAEA inspections have been sufficient, or they don’t know what the Iranians are up to. Since the agreement specifically increases IAEA access to nuclear sites (including inspector access to existing facilities, new declarations regarding the Arak reactor which could be used to produce plutonium, and new access centrifuge production sites, among other things), surely the P5 did not insist than Iran agree to things that were already happening. You said, and I quote: “In the absence of the agreement, there would be no substantive IAEA inspections to confirm what Iran has.” This was a patently false statement on your part. There IAEA has been inspecting them all along. The agreement does nothing but give a cash strapped government money to forward their weapons program. It’s North Korea all over again on. When they succeed in the other components there is nothing stopping them from kicking out the inspectors and making weapons grade material. All they need is time and money and we’ve given them both which cancels out the internal economic leverage the sanctions created. > [@Ravenman](#): > > But again, I’m sure you’re not here to argue the substance. It’s just another episode in the “adopt any line of argument that is critical of Obama” road show. Looks at Ravenman’s location and shakes head. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/135 "2013-12-01T01:38:37Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I’m starting to think that this is more of a side show for them, like Chemical Weapons for Syria. Throw The West a bone, and consolidate power. Seems to be working well of Assad. That is a neocon argument for the need for war to stop nuclear wespons in Iran is it not John Mace? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/136 "2013-12-01T02:11:39Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > You said, and I quote: “In the absence of the agreement, there would be no substantive IAEA inspections to confirm what Iran has.” > > This was a patently false statement on your part. So when you said we don’t know what Iran has, you weren’t actually trying to make a serious point. > [@](#): > > The agreement does nothing but give a cash strapped government money to forward their weapons program. It’s North Korea all over again on. When they succeed in the other components there is nothing stopping them from kicking out the inspectors and making weapons grade material. All they need is time and money and we’ve given them both which cancels out the internal economic leverage the sanctions created. This is such a joke. We have $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets, a total that’s going up all the time. Iran has a budget deficit of $35 billion with no means to finance it due to the sanctions. Under this agreement, they get about a billion dollars per month. That’s not “canceling out” internal economic leverage. It’s also pretty lame to suggest that $500 million in sanctions relief to buy auto parts is going to be diverted to their nuclear program, because the last time I checked you don’t need brake lights and catalytic converters for enrichment activities. > [@](#): > > Looks at Ravenman’s location and shakes head. I’ll put my record of partisanship against yours any single fucking day of the week. Seriously. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/137 "2013-12-01T02:30:49Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > So when you said we don’t know what Iran has, you weren’t actually trying to make a serious point. We don’t know if they’re hiding anything and the increased inspections won’t change that. > [@Ravenman](#): > > This is such a joke. We have $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets, a total that’s going up all the time. Iran has a budget deficit of $35 billion with no means to finance it due to the sanctions. Under this agreement, they get about a billion dollars per month. That’s not “canceling out” internal economic leverage. It’s also pretty lame to suggest that $500 million in sanctions relief to buy auto parts is going to be diverted to their nuclear program, because the last time I checked you don’t need brake lights and catalytic converters for enrichment activities. w I didn’t say it canceled it out. Another strawman on your part. A billion dollars a month is money they didn’t have before. They can continue on their present course and they now have 12 billion dollars more per year to make the trains run on time. > [@Ravenman](#): > > I’ll put my record of partisanship against yours any single fucking day of the week. Seriously. uh huh. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/138 "2013-12-01T02:44:08Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > We don’t know if they’re hiding anything and the increased inspections won’t change that. Ah, yes. Didn’t you say the same thing about Saddam? > [@](#): > > I didn’t say it canceled it out. Another strawman on your part. I had no idea that quoting you constitutes a straw man: “All they need is time and money and we’ve given them both which cancels out the internal economic leverage the sanctions created.” What’s next, I use your name in a post and you call it an ad hominem? > [@](#): > > They can continue on their present course and they now have 12 billion dollars more per year to make the trains run on time. I think you need to read the newspapers, because the deal expires in six months and the total sanctions relief is $7 billion parceled out over that time. Again I must wonder if you’re just not familiar with these basic facts of the agreement and choosing to ignore them in favor of this $12 billion nonsense, or if you’re throwing out these figures knowing that they are bullshit. > [@](#): > > uh huh. Anytime. Seriously. Go ahead and open up a thread about your non partisan bona fides. I suggest doing it in the Pit, because that’s where parody threads go. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/139 "2013-12-01T02:48:31Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > That is a neocon argument for the need for war to stop nuclear wespons in Iran is it not John Mace? No, its not. Read the entire post: > [@](#): > > I always figured that Iran certainly wanted nukes. And who could blame them? But it may turn out that not having nukes is more valuable than having them. Sure gives them something powerful to bargain over. > > Having nukes pretty much makes them immune from invasion, but they might figure that the possibility of invasion is relatively low. And once they get nukes, the sanctions will never come off. But as long as they can trade not having nukes for not having sanctions, they’re probably better off overall. > > I’m starting to think that this is more of a side show for them, like Chemical Weapons for Syria. Throw The West a bone, and consolidate power. Seems to be working well of Assad. Also read this post from this thread: > [@John Mace](#): > > Seems like a reasonable deal to me, but then I’m a complete dove when it comes to dealing with Iran. Emphasis added. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2013, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300/140 "2013-12-01T02:59:15Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I think you need to read the newspapers, because the deal expires in six months and the total sanctions relief is $7 billion parceled out over that time. Again I must wonder if you’re just not familiar with these basic facts of the agreement and choosing to ignore them in favor of this $12 billion nonsense, or if you’re throwing out these figures knowing that they are bullshit. As you should already be aware the 6 month timeline is linked to the next agreement. So there are 2 possibilities, they continue the monitoring (which they were already doing anyway) and the flow of money continues or they don’t. They are either working on a weapon or they’re not. If they’re not we’re supporting their economy and Hezbollah. If they are we’re supporting an atomic weapon and Hezbollah. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-more-sanctions-now-or-wait/674300.md?page=8)