# Iran Obama's 'only chance of success' **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 16, 2010, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682 "2010-05-16T21:31:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/81 "2010-05-20T10:44:17Z")
> [@julius blaze](#): > > How is Iran in any way “moderate” with their treatment of Baha’is I previously mentioned? I noticed neither you nor Zanthor has responded to my last comment. Sorry just noticed this. They are seen as heretics. They do not believe that Mohammed was the last prophet. They believe Mirza al Nouri is the last prophet. The Jews are still waiting for the messiah, the Christians believe Jesus is theirs, and Jesus spoke of the coming of the paraclete which is the prophet of Islam Mohammed as being the last messenger. So in Islam the Bahai are thought of as heretics. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/82 "2010-05-20T10:52:23Z")
Ah I see. Clearly, locking them up is the only sensible response. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/83 "2010-05-20T11:08:55Z")
It’s not a case of wanting to go to war in Pakistan, it might be a case of having to. Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal. An unstable government. Many radical extremists just waiting to get their hands on a facility. Dear God NATO can’t even take Kandahar! what makes you think they will stop the Taliban and ALL the other groups in Pakistan. You opened a can of worms. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/84 "2010-05-20T11:12:06Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Ah I see. Clearly, locking them up is the only sensible response. well if it were back in time they would have been burned at the stake so prison I guess is preferable:D If you are talking about the ones arrested they were said to be inciting violence and trying to overthrow the government. ---
**Author:** ![Marmite\_Lover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Marmite\_Lover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marmite_Lover)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/85 "2010-05-20T11:18:15Z")
Did you know that Iran usually detains foreigners by the way on house arrest in their own embassy. The three accused of spying were even taken from there to a hotel to meet their mothers. I wonder how alleged Iranian spies found in other countries are treated? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/86 "2010-05-20T11:29:18Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > It’s not a case of wanting to go to war in Pakistan, it might be a case of having to. > > Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal. An unstable government. Many radical extremists just waiting to get their hands on a facility. I am aware of all those things. The accusation was that the US/West was “manufacturing consent for war”. Unless you or **Zanthor** are contending that the US deliberately caused any of those things as a pretext for invasion, this is not germane. > [@](#): > > You opened a can of worms. I do so love the “You made me do this!” argument, as if there were no other factors to consider in the current situation and nobody else in the world had any free agency. Heck, you’d have a better argument blaming the British Empire for the situation in Pakistan now than the US. ---
**Author:** ![rogerbox](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/76d3ee/32.png) [@rogerbox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rogerbox)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/87 "2010-05-20T14:46:09Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > Sorry just noticed this. > They are seen as heretics. They do not believe that Mohammed was the last prophet. They believe Mirza al Nouri is the last prophet. > The Jews are still waiting for the messiah, the Christians believe Jesus is theirs, and Jesus spoke of the coming of the paraclete which is the prophet of Islam Mohammed as being the last messenger. So in Islam the Bahai are thought of as heretics. I know all that. It doesn’t in any way excuse their treatment of Baha’is. I don’t think you understand what entails being “moderate”. So tell me, why are Baha’is not allowed to go to University in Iran. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/88 "2010-05-20T15:23:26Z")
> [@Camus](#): > > If you don’t like the NPT, that’s fine. Iran was not forced to sign it, but they did. As for double-standards regarding the previously existing declared nuclear powers such as the US and Russia, they were written into the NPT. Again, Iran didn’t have to sign it, but they did. They - and their poorly informed defenders - can hardly complain about a double-standard now like it’s a new development. Besides, what is the remedy for this double-standard, nuclear weapons for each and every nation-state? So - if they withdrew from the NPT on the grounds that the Iran that signed it was the Shah Puppet-Iran, which they are at liberty to do, the rest of the world will shrug their shoulders and walk on whistling a happy tune then? ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/89 "2010-05-20T17:13:31Z")
“We launch cruise missiles at Pakistan every day” Really? We’ve never launched a cruise missile at Pakistan. We do conduct UAV strikes in the border regions of Pakistan because Pakistan is either unable or unwilling to get a strong presence in there to root out Al Qaeda and Taliban insurgents. Those are not cruise missles! As for the civilian casualties that invariably occur…its war. It unfortunately happens, particularly when the group you’re fighting against has a known propensity for conducting their operations in and around civilian areas like schools and hospitals due to the political benefit they gain from waving their dead bodies in front of TV cameras so the world can see “what they’ve done to us!”. Aside from all this, Pakistan is an _ally_ in this “war on terror”…why would we invade them? The only plausible scenario I’ve seen here put forth was one whereby their government became so unstabilized that there was a genuine threat that a part of their nuclear arsenal would “fall into the wrong hands” and even then, we wouldn’t launch some kind of full scale invasion. As for Iran, when on Earth have they been arbiters of peace? Jesus! ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/90 "2010-05-20T18:09:44Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > It’s not a case of wanting to go to war in Pakistan, it might be a case of having to. > > Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal. An unstable government. Many radical extremists just waiting to get their hands on a facility. Dear God NATO can’t even take Kandahar! what makes you think they will stop the Taliban and ALL the other groups in Pakistan. You opened a can of worms. So, because we’re struggling to pacify Afghanistan, we’re going to invade and topple Pakistan. Because fighting Pakistan, being 10 times richer and more populated than Afghanistan, would be so much easier than fighting Afghanistan. Look, you answered your own question. We’re having trouble fighting a few half-assed warlords in Afghanistan. How the fuck are we supposed to fight Pakistan too? It’s impossible. And THAT’S WHY WE’RE NOT GOING TO FIGHT A WAR AGAINST PAKISTAN. ---
**Author:** ![rogerbox](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/76d3ee/32.png) [@rogerbox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rogerbox)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/91 "2010-05-20T19:22:47Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > Sorry just noticed this. > They are seen as heretics. They do not believe that Mohammed was the last prophet. They believe Mirza al Nouri is the last prophet. By the way, I missed this part… that last sentence is not true. ---
**Author:** ![Camus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ba8739/32.png) [@Camus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Camus)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/92 "2010-05-20T20:40:25Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > So - if they withdrew from the NPT on the grounds that the Iran that signed it was the Shah Puppet-Iran, which they are at liberty to do, the rest of the world will shrug their shoulders and walk on whistling a happy tune then? That would be an interesting development. However, it would also essentially prove that their goal is to design and manufacture a nuclear weapon, since the treaty specifically recognizes a right to use and develop peaceful nuclear power technology. The only major thing the treaty prohibits are for non-nuclear weapon states from receiving, manufacturing, or acquiring nuclear weapons and nuclear explosive devices. Since numerous Iranian officials have repeatedly claimed over the years that Iran is not seeking and will not seek a nuclear weapon - and the only real purpose for withdrawing from the NPT is for a signatory state to pursue nuclear weapons a la North Korea - this would destroy the regime’s credibility once and for all before the whole world. They don’t have much to begin with (cue **Marmite Lover’s** “double standards!” moan), but withdrawing from the NPT would mean that even the conciliatory states like Turkey and Brazil wouldn’t be able to claim skepticism about Iran’s actions or goals. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/93 "2010-05-20T21:59:53Z")
> [@Marmite\_Lover](#): > > I wonder how alleged Iranian spies found in other countries are treated? [We send them back home and roll our eyes at their incompetence.](http://schumer.senate.gov/new_website/record.cfm?id=265168) ---
**Author:** ![Zanthor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e19b73/32.png) [@Zanthor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zanthor)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/94 "2010-05-20T22:45:24Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Are you reading _anything_ anyone is saying to you? > > Obama is winding down the US operations in Iraq. The US is leaving. > > The escalation in Afgahanistan was necessary to achieve the military objectives (which, I’m assuming, still are basically the neutralizing of the Taliban and capture of whatever Al-Qaeda forces are still in the country) because SOMEBODY originally diverted troops away from the conflict there to pursue a rather stupid war in Iraq. > > Listen carefully: WE. ARE. NOT. GOING. TO. INVADE. PAKISTAN. It’s not going to happen. It would achieve nothing, it would make the situation in the region much worse, it’s not even militarily possible at the moment, and nobody on either side of the US political scene has expressed even the slightest desire to do so. Not happening. Stop saying that we are. > > Which leaves Iran, which is the country we were supposed to be discussing (although you seem anxious to turn the conversation to anything else). It is true that there are those in the right-wing political sphere in the US (media and politicians) who have made some statements about invading Iran. These people are not in power. The Obama administration is not talking up an Iranian invasion. There are good reasons for this. > > 1. There’s no reason to invade. Yes, military actions get talked about, but only because it can’t be removed from the table without weakening the diplomatic negoatiating position. Military actions were discussed all the time during the Cold War, and yet we never invaded Russia either. There is still every reason to continue diplomatic discussions, especially since the Iranian people themselves may eventually force their own government to adopt a more moderate and democratic system. > > 2. There’s no will to invade. The American people are quite sick of the wars they already have. Adding another war would make the President _extremely_ unpopular. > > 3. There’s no military to invade. There’s already a significant military overstretch with Iraq and Afghanistan. At this point Obama would have to start drafting people if he wanted another war. > > 4. There’s no money to invade. Even if we had the reason, the will and the troops, you may have noticed that the budget is a bit pinched at the moment. > > What’s abnormal about our negotiations? What have the Iranians suffered from the sanctions? Save the USA from what? > > Iran’s President is a demagogue with limited power. Even the Iranian people say that. He gains prominence internationally and at home by setting himself as a foil to the evil Western powers. It’s meaningless political rhetoric, in the same way the Mugabe blames all of Zimbabwe’s current woes on white people. > > By the way, are you ever going to comment on the treatment of Baha’is and homosexuals in Iran? 1/ Awesome, just like Veitnam, Iraq, etc etc. Annihilate the place, totally destabalise it, kill a million or so, achieve virtually nothing, then leave? Is that it, the best you could do?? Install fragile corrupt US friendly puppet regimes, then walk away? You should not have gone there in the 1st place… Just say, What it the above were an objective all in its own right?. Mission accomplished??? Does it feel good?, congratulatory pats on each others backs? 2/ The escalation was NOT necessary, The West should not have gone their in the 1st place. Regimes changes, interfering in another countries politics is NOT our business. 3/ Only hope you are correct, I think you are not, I would think its inevitable, for all kinds of reasons. Dwindling Oil supplies right up there, also the instability of the Nuke possessing Govt. The West will only go there, ‘to lend a hand’ of course. If you don’t see this, i think the forest obscures your view of the trees. How many $US millions of millions has the West supplied Pakistan, weapons etc, to what avail. Their control is fragmenting. America will have to ‘assist’ Its what the West does.. 4/ Sorry, don’t have time to reply to the rest of your post, have to go out. later. One point tho, about the last question you asked. about homosexuals and the Bahai in Iran. 2 things, 1/ I am not God, I do not claim to know absolute right and wrong. I pointed this out to you when i mentioned how the German ppl regarded Hitler as a Liberator, a Savior, promised the final solution for a ppl that have been persecuted all thro the world, esp. all of Europe for centuries. See Shakespeare’s, Merchant of Venice for example. Are you asking wether i personally approve of what Hitler did? Of course not, I said the great wrongness and rightness depends on wether you happen to be one of them or us. Rightness and wrong therefore relative, not complete. Was the American military right to have a policy of persecution and suppression of Gay ppl in its military?. My point was, one planet, one ppl. If you Empathise you are them, then imagine they are you, who then is there left to fear and pass Judgment on?. Are you going to hate and kill yourself, if you are them, and the enemy is you. Some great thinker said, i looked in the mirror and saw my enemy, it was me. The essence of, Love your Enemy, turn the other cheek etc etc etc, perhaps? I think the invasion of Iran much less likely than i did years ago when the whole sorry mess began. If the war in Iraq and Afghanistan have of gone better? Perhaps the West will have to settle for bombing the crap out of Iran, not invade, to pacify Israel.. But I do think ‘securing Pakistan’ will become a necessity ( sic ) Regards ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2010, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/95 "2010-05-20T23:10:36Z")
> [@Zanthor](#): > > diplomacy by increasing troop numbers by a factor of how many exactly? How many U.S. soldiers are in Iran? ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2010, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/96 "2010-05-21T00:08:11Z")
**Zanthar** , you need to lower your Xanax dosage. You make zero sense. Your posts are largely incoherent, devoid of understanding of political reality and couching them in sonnet-like phrasing doesn’t make them any more understandable or remotely true. Its been pointed out to you time and again that your failure to understand history is clouding your outlook on not just Iran, but also Pakistan, Germany and Japan. You must really hate America\* to hold the position you do. \*trademarked catchphrase _du jour_ ---
**Author:** ![Zanthor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e19b73/32.png) [@Zanthor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zanthor)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2010, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/97 "2010-05-21T01:02:09Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > How many U.S. soldiers are in Iran? does that include Covert black ops CiIA ‘excursions’? if so, then you tell me. or how much US$ support to any anti Govt group in Iran does the US govt pour money into?. If you are so wise, know all things, you tell me. I was merely asking. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2010, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/98 "2010-05-21T01:07:58Z")
Everybody knows that the US has ninjas in Iran, not spec ops troops. ---
**Author:** ![Zanthor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e19b73/32.png) [@Zanthor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zanthor)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2010, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/99 "2010-05-21T01:13:37Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > **Zanthar** , you need to lower your Xanax dosage. You make zero sense. Your posts are largely incoherent, devoid of understanding of political reality and couching them in sonnet-like phrasing doesn’t make them any more understandable or remotely true. > > Its been pointed out to you time and again that your failure to understand history is clouding your outlook on not just Iran, but also Pakistan, Germany and Japan. > > You must really hate America\* to hold the position you do. > \*trademarked catchphrase _du jour_ It was only meant to make sense if you were able to understand. I wrote from the heart, and Spirit.both the enemy we kill and my own perrception of what I think really matters. Give you a clue, its NOT greed and Domination… . If this does not meet your approval, then dismiss it, don’t bother reading it, it obviously was not meant for you. I am seeking, you are not looking it seems. oh well. FYI, i despise all religions, from all nations, but i respect Spirituality, regardless of the ‘Religion’ BTW, Think your Native Americans had more honest religion in the palm of their hand than most so called civilasised decent Christians would ever understand with their whole body and mind. How about the West stops killing ppl, i might think there was some hope for us all… if this is to obscure for you, then that’s ok, it is fate, destiny. Words of Bob Dylan, Its all right Ma. I am only bleeding. goes, i hate nothing but hatred itself… quote. You must really hate America\* to hold the position you do. Nope, as i said, I hate nothing but hatred itself. What I demand however is accountability.. You ready to 'fess up yet? regards Meaningless crap to you? ---
**Author:** ![Zanthor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e19b73/32.png) [@Zanthor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zanthor)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2010, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682/100 "2010-05-21T01:21:10Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > Everybody knows that the US has ninjas in Iran, not spec ops troops. If you cannot be serious about dealing death to innocents, why bother wasting air by breathing? the are zillions of links to Special Ops. here is one. > **[Joint Special Operations Command](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Special_Operations_Command)** > > The Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) is a joint component command of the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) and is charged with studying special operations requirements and techniques to ensure interoperability and equipment standardization, to plan and conduct special operations exercises and training, to develop joint special operations tactics, and to execute special operations missions worldwide. It was established in 1980 on recommendation of Colonel Charlie Beckwi... [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-obamas-only-chance-of-success/539682.md?page=6)