# Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 6, 2011, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095 "2011-11-06T20:21:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/21 "2011-11-07T01:11:32Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > Instability in the Middle East caused by Iran’s nuclear program [has already been leading towards a true arms race,](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123776572203009141.html) which in and of itself could have truly disastrous repercussions, even in the wake of the Arab Spring. Your statements here and the article you linked to offer up a lot of speculation derived from observable facts. Assuming each step in the chain to full on arms race is going to happen and the continuing spread of this technology to places in all directions of the compass outside of the Middle East what can we possibly hope to do to stop this? Assuming it is impossible: How does a Persian - Arab arms race evolve differently than a Soviet - USA arms race or Pakistan - India arms race? The two that have actually happened seem to develop into largely peaceful posturing, grumbling and proxy warfare. > [@FinnAgain](#): > > As for consequences, fears of Iran directly utilizing atomic weapons are unlikely but not impossible to play out. Fears of Iran giving nuclear materials to its proxy forces are also somewhat unlikely since the traditional non-response to Iranian attacks on foreign nations like the marine barracks bombing or the Khobar Towers bombing would almost definitely not be the pattern we’d see in the event of radiological or full out atomic incidents. What it does suggest, however, is that Iran will be more willing and likely to use its proxy forces in order to achieve regional and international goals, and the rest of the world will have few if any military responses open aside from missiles strikes. This future you describe honestly does not seem different than today: Iran uses its proxy forces to control various parts of the Middle East. The populaces of most countries that can really go to war with Iran have no stomach for it. Their governments can probably only perform air strikes or missile strikes - so it’s not different whether Iran has or does not have nukes. > [@FinnAgain](#): > > What then, if anything, should the rest of the world be doing? > > The precedents set by Israel’s attack on the Iraq reactor and Syria’s (alleged) nuclear program suggest that the rest of the world might tisk a bit, but nothing much would be done if Israel was to launch a preemptive strike. It’s unlikely that western powers would launch an attack themselves, but it’s not inconceivable that the US might greenlight Israel. Especially with most of the other states in the ME bearing Iran no small bit of antipathy. However, it’s doubtful if any weapons short of tactical nukes could truly take out Iran’s nuclear program, and their use might very well prompt Egypt’s new government to declare war against Israel. > > Perhaps the best course of action, from here on out, are diplomatic actions, support for reform within Iran (possibly including covert action and support), containment, further Stuxnet type cyberwarfare and tactical assassinations of Iran’s nuclear scientists. What say y’all? I have faith in Iran’s people so long as they remain as free as they are now. I think the enhanced education of the populace in pursuit of various types of technology, even in weapons, will tend toward opening up their society. I think a large part of what is driving the revolutionary forces in the Middle East, from terrorist to Arab Spring, is a population of well-educated, motivated individuals with little to no opportunities. Whether your scenario or a scenario without Iran nuclear weapons comes to pass, attempts at peaceful, non-punitive diplomatic activities will have the best outcomes for us in the long run. Although it is valuable to develop the kinds of techniques exhibited by Stuxnet, I think it is a half measure and does not, in the long run, serve our goal: an Iran free of nuclear weapons. ---
**Author:** ![JoelUpchurch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f05b48/32.png) [@JoelUpchurch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoelUpchurch)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/22 "2011-11-07T02:44:34Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Nonsense. They were threatened by the West since before the present government; remember the Shah. There’s no reason for a successor government to stop trying for nukes, because there’s no reason to think we we’ll stop being their enemies. What alternate universe are from where the Shah wasn’t an ally of the United States? ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/23 "2011-11-07T03:58:19Z")
If America has nuclear weapons, there’s nothing wrong with Iran having nuclear weapons. Because Iran is just like America. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/24 "2011-11-07T04:07:57Z")
> [@Argent\_Towers](#): > > If America has nuclear weapons, there’s nothing wrong with Iran having nuclear weapons. Because Iran is just like America. Iran isn’t just like America, Iran wouldn’t nuke an enemy country. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/25 "2011-11-07T04:39:57Z")
Since they’ve never actually _had_ nuclear weapons, it’s pretty impossible to say what they’d do if they did have them. Considering what this country does to _its own_ people, I’m not optimistic about it. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/26 "2011-11-07T04:44:16Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Nonsense. They were threatened by the West since before the present government; remember the Shah. What the fuck are you talking about? The Shah was an ally of both the US and Israel. Please read up about the situation before making extremely moronic statements about my homeland. ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/27 "2011-11-07T04:45:52Z")
I think that’s his point - that the Shah was doing the bidding of America. ---
**Author:** ![An\_Gadai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d6d6ee/32.png) [@An\_Gadai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Gadai)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/28 "2011-11-07T04:47:17Z")
> [@Argent\_Towers](#): > > Since they’ve never actually _had_ nuclear weapons, it’s pretty impossible to say what they’d do if they did have them. Considering what this country does to _its own_ people, I’m not optimistic about it. I know, I know, jeez can’t a body joke about nuclear weapons anymore? I do have to wonder, how would it ever possibly benefit any country other than maybe the US/Russia/China to nuke an enemy. If Iran’s leaders decided to level Tel Aviv, or wherever, they’d be basically committing a very bloody suicide and possibly destroying their own civilisation with it. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/29 "2011-11-07T05:27:10Z")
> [@Argent\_Towers](#): > > I think that’s his point - that the Shah was doing the bidding of America. Exactly. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/30 "2011-11-07T05:39:04Z")
> [@An\_Gadai](#): > > I know, I know, jeez can’t a body joke about nuclear weapons anymore? I do have to wonder, how would it ever possibly benefit any country other than maybe the US/Russia/China to nuke an enemy. If Iran’s leaders decided to level Tel Aviv, or wherever, they’d be basically committing a very bloody suicide and possibly destroying their own civilisation with it. That’s one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that they’re bringing about the return of the Vanished Imam, the final battle between the Messiah and the Mahdi versus the Anti-Christ, the End of Days and the ascendency of the just into paradise. Some people wouldn’t find the latter too upsetting. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/31 "2011-11-07T05:40:35Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Iran doesn’t go around invading people on a regular basis. Yeah, because they _can’t_. Instead they fund and supply terrorist regimes and terrorist groups in the region, eg, Hamas, Hizbollah. (Or perhaps you are sympathetic to those groups. I donno.) ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/32 "2011-11-07T05:44:11Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > That’s one way of looking at it. > > Another way of looking at it is that they’re bringing about the return of the Vanished Imam, the final battle between the Messiah and the Mahdi versus the Anti-Christ, the End of Days and the ascendency of the just into paradise. > > Some people wouldn’t find the latter too upsetting. Or the other alternative: They win that round and the next couple. If Iran somehow managed to level Tel Aviv and had Syria and Lebanon and Hamas backing it (or whomever), Israel may be so up in arms over itself that it may not strike back. Or it would, but Israel is pretty tiny. Tel Aviv is a stone’s throw from the border and iirc you can make it from Tel Aviv to Jeruslaem in a few hours on a bus. Tel Aviv is also a major population hub. _shudder_ I don’t even want to think about it. It wouldn’t take much. The nice thing is that while Egypt, Iran and Turkey are making plays to be the power brokers in the ME, most people really _don’t_ want to see Iran with nukes. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/33 "2011-11-07T06:03:46Z")
> [@CitizenPained](#): > > Yeah, because they _can’t_. Instead they fund and supply terrorist regimes and terrorist groups in the region, eg, Hamas, Hizbollah. Just like us; we support plenty of terrorists and tyrants across the world; far more than Iran does. And Iran _could_ attack other countries if it wanted to, it’s not stuck on some island. It obviously isn’t interested; most countries aren’t these days, there’s no profit in it. > [@CitizenPained](#): > > If Iran somehow managed to level Tel Aviv and had Syria and Lebanon and Hamas backing it (or whomever), Israel may be so up in arms over itself that it may not strike back. Don’t be silly, they’d nuke as much of Iran as they had the weapons for, and I’m sure Iran knows it. ---
**Author:** ![straight\_man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/straight_man/32/3027_2.png) [@straight\_man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/straight_man)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2011, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/34 "2011-11-07T06:31:08Z")
> [@Argent\_Towers](#): > > Since they’ve never actually _had_ nuclear weapons, it’s pretty impossible to say what they’d do if they did have them. Considering what this country does to _its own_ people, I’m not optimistic about it. Oh, nothing nice, to be sure. However, compared to China, the Soviet Union, North Korea, Pakistan, South Africa, France if you count the whole Algeria thing… yah, they’re really nothing special. For that matter, if you consider foreign policy, I’m hard set to see how Iran’s policy has been more significantly more volatile or aggressive than China, the Soviet Union, North Korea, France, the UK, the US, Israel… have I missed anybody? > [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Another way of looking at it is that they’re bringing about the return of the Vanished Imam, the final battle between the Messiah and the Mahdi versus the Anti-Christ, the End of Days and the ascendency of the just into paradise. > > Some people wouldn’t find the latter too upsetting. One of the happy tendencies of politics is that people with death wishes rarely find themselves with sufficient power to unilaterally launch a country’s nuclear arsenal. Certainly Khamenei is not such a person, nor indeed is Ahmadenijad (note that he’d never have the power anyway). Really, we don’t worry about nukes for the sake of crazy leaders —after all, we’ve had Stalin and Mao with nukes, and it worked out fine. AFAIK, there are basically worries when a country gets nuclear weapons: 1) the country will get itself into an existential threat and have to use them (North Korea); 2) the country will start being more aggressive as it feels it has become a major power (Iran); 3) the country will give or lose its nuclear weapons to a non-state actor for whom MAD doesn’t work (Pakistan, former Soviet Union); or 4) the country will sell its technology onto another country for whom the first three reasons apply (North Korea, Pakistan). Iran’s foreign policy isn’t exceptionally aggressive by the standards of the region; I don’t think #2 is enough to be more than unhappy about them getting nukes. The other three don’t really apply at all; Iran’s never shown signs of trying for #1, they have too much control for #3 (and we’re not exactly inundated Shi’ite terrorists anyway —I can’t imagine Iran giving nukes to any Sunni group), and they aren’t cash-strapped enough for #4 to be worthwhile. IOW, Iran getting nuclear weapons wouldn’t be a good thing, but it also wouldn’t be the end of the world. Not by a long shot. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2011, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/35 "2011-11-08T09:34:32Z")
Iran can use a nuclear weapon exactly once. After that, the mushroom clouds are inbound, not outbound. And nukes aren’t magical world-ending engines of destruction. They’re large explosives with unpleasant side effects (unless deployed several hundred at a time, as they would be in response to Iran using one). An Iranian nuke going off in downtown Tel Aviv isn’t going to end Israel. An Iranian nuke going off in the middle of a US carrier group isn’t going to end the United States. However, an Iranian nuke going off anywhere outside of Iran will certainly end Iran. Can Iran build one? If it pleases Allah. Can they use one? Not unless they want every Iranian citizen’s balls to glow green like on the flag of their country. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2011, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095/36 "2011-11-08T13:24:15Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > The precedents set by Israel’s attack on the Iraq reactor and Syria’s (alleged) nuclear program suggest that the rest of the world might tisk a bit, but nothing much would be done if Israel was to launch a preemptive strike. Why does everybody always assume the Israelis can just decide to do this and **succeed?** The Iranians have learned a lesson (maybe the wrong lesson, whatever) from the Osirak boming, and built their nuclear facilities underground and bomb-hardened. We’ve been over this many times before. And, why does everybody always assume that Iran’s air force is so inferior that Israeli bombers can even be sure of reaching targets in their country? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program/602095.md?page=1)