# Iran shoots down U.S. aircraft over international waters. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 20, 2019, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812 "2019-06-20T16:27:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/361 "2019-07-20T19:16:45Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I think anyone who thinks there is even a 1% chance of a full-on US invasion of Iran has no clue what they are talking about. > > Stupid, reckless, and costly air war to pummel Iran at probably a high cost? Oh yeah, that could happen. Occupation of Iran? Zero point zero zero zero chance. Precisely, which is why I wrote that last paragraph. If anyone thinks that just obliterating Iran from the air and just walking away is an option, it’s not. I mean it is, yes, but it’s not a good one, which is why any war with Iran, and any policy that goads Iran into a war, is a bad one. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/362 "2019-07-20T19:21:27Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Pretty much this. There is a nearly zero chance of an invasion. There is a fair chance, IMHO, of US air strikes and Iranian retaliation, and a fair to good (hell a ‘might have already happened’) chance of Iranian attacks, especially proxy attacks prompting US retaliation. There is also a fair chance of some country trying to frame Iran to prompt a US retaliatory strike on Iran from several different actors or nation states who would benefit from this. The US would probably bomb the ever-living shit out of Iran’s key targets and wouldn’t give a toss about civilian casualties, of which there would probably be many. But in response, nothing would be off the table as far as Iran is concerned, and one could be forgiven for assuming we haven’t thought through all the possible repercussions, including terrorism. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/363 "2019-07-20T19:24:08Z")
> [@XT](#): > > What do you base that on? It’s trivially easy to look up mass protests in Iran…in fact, [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%9318_Iranian_protests) is a wiki article on just that. All that just made up lies? Just ‘Mostly delusions of aging Iranian expats & western think tanks’?? :dubious: :rolleyes: Yeah. I mean I just have been to the country multiple times and I have relatives still there and I live in the fucking region…but sure, your Americaness trumps my knowledge. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/364 "2019-07-20T19:26:01Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > :rolleyes: > Yeah. I mean I just have been to the country multiple times and I have relatives still there and I live in the fucking region…but sure, your Americaness trumps my knowledge. Oh, I didn’t realize you knew everyone in Iran and knew what all they think about it! An appeal to authority (yourself of course) and your innate knowledge is sure compelling, I must admit. Sorry I questioned your bald assertion! ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/365 "2019-07-20T19:29:21Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Oh, I didn’t realize you knew everyone in Iran and knew what all they think about it! An appeal to authority (yourself of course) and your innate knowledge is sure compelling, I must admit. Sorry I questioned your bald assertion! Are you under the impression that your cite of a Wikipedia article was something other than an appeal to authority? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/366 "2019-07-20T19:29:57Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The US would probably bomb the ever-living shit out of Iran’s key targets and wouldn’t give a toss about civilian casualties, of which there would probably be many. > > But in response, nothing would be off the table as far as Iran is concerned, and one could be forgiven for assuming we haven’t thought through all the possible repercussions, including terrorism. Conversely, you seem to be assuming the Iranians HAVE thought through all of the repercussions of their actions which I am frankly skeptical. I think both sides are dancing on a razors edge at this point, and neither is thinking with their big head. And, of course, there is also the possibility that there is a 3rd party (or more than one) who is also manipulating things from the sidelines for their own ends. I disagree that the US ‘wouldn’t give a toss about civilian causalities’ btw…that’s just horseshit. I do agree that I don’t think the current US administration has thought this through…which is why I have said all along it was a mistake for the US to withdraw unilaterally from the nuclear agreement, despite the fact that the US has very real issues with Iran and it’s policies that have nothing to do with the nuclear deal. But there were other ways the US could have addressed those issues besides the steps our idiot in charge took. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/367 "2019-07-20T19:33:06Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Are you under the impression that your cite of a Wikipedia article was something other than an appeal to authority? :dubious: Are you saying there weren’t protests in Iran?? Seriously, I don’t even know how to answer this. Are you saying that because AK84 has family in Iran that means his assertion of ‘Mostly delusions of aging Iranian expats & western think tanks I am afraid’ in response to a question about Iranians unhappy with the theocracy has some sort of weight? Seriously?? No, I didn’t think the wiki article ON IT’S OWN is anything more than an example of something AK84 flatly stated is mostly in the minds of old Iranian ex-pats and right wing think tanks. It is, however, more than the freaking anecdotal ‘my family lives there’ horseshit I got in response. But feel free to defend that. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/368 "2019-07-20T19:44:03Z")
He thinks protests mean Iranians want invasion. And if someone says that “no they don’t”, then apparently they are denying the existence of protest. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/369 "2019-07-20T19:45:16Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > He thinks protests mean Iranians want invasion. And if someone says that “no they don’t”, then apparently they are denying the existence of protest. After I specifically addressed this (you probably don’t realize this, as it’s a hidden feature that many might not be aware of, but folks can SCROLL UP AND SEE WHAT BOTH YOU AND I ACTUALLY WROTE) you STILL are trying to push this horseshit? Ah, I see…you got called on your anecdotal bullshit and how you are trying to deflect. I get it. Well played… ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/370 "2019-07-20T20:03:54Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Are you saying there weren’t protests in Iran?? Seriously, I don’t even know how to answer this. Are you saying that because AK84 has family in Iran that means his assertion of ‘Mostly delusions of aging Iranian expats & western think tanks I am afraid’ in response to a question about Iranians unhappy with the theocracy has some sort of weight? Seriously?? > > No, I didn’t think the wiki article ON IT’S OWN is anything more than an example of something AK84 flatly stated is mostly in the minds of old Iranian ex-pats and right wing think tanks. It is, however, more than the freaking anecdotal ‘my family lives there’ horseshit I got in response. But feel free to defend that. I’m not necessarily a fan of anecdotally-supported rebuttals, either, but since you’re asserting that there are protests in Iran sufficient enough to welcome US regime change, I think anecdotes are actually rather valid in this case. If you’re trying to assess the mood of the Iranian ‘street,’ I think his familial ties and familiarity with the culture and the region have merit. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/371 "2019-07-20T20:06:53Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I’m not necessarily a fan of anecdotally-supported rebuttals, either, but since you’re asserting that there are protests in Iran sufficient enough to welcome US regime change, I think anecdotes are actually rather valid in this case. If you’re trying to assess the mood of the Iranian ‘street,’ I think his familial ties and familiarity with the culture and the region have merit. Jesus fucking christ on a crispy cracker. Apparently the scroll up feature IS a hidden thing that only a few know about. I am NOT asserting any such fucking thing. I’m specifically saying exactly the FUCKING OPPOSITE. Feel free to check for yourself by, I don’t know…scrolling up perhaps. Or, I guess, just take AK84’s word for that or something. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/372 "2019-07-20T20:11:58Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Jesus fucking christ on a crispy cracker. I chuckled when I read this. 😃 > [@XT](#): > > Apparently the scroll up feature IS a hidden thing that only a few know about. I am NOT asserting any such fucking thing. I’m specifically saying exactly the FUCKING OPPOSITE. Feel free to check for yourself by, I don’t know…scrolling up perhaps. Or, I guess, just take AK84’s word for that or something. Ya know, I’m not obligated to read every one of your posts, so maybe you could just restate what your position is, then. But based on the exchange between you, Bo, and AK84 - the part that I read and responded to - one could be forgiven for concluding that’s what you meant. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/373 "2019-07-20T20:37:10Z")
Everyone just calm down. XT. Be at peace. Asahi, it would be a good thing to try to know what someone’s talking about before responding. It helps debate if both interlocutors are having the same discussion. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2019, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/374 "2019-07-20T20:42:10Z")
There are many ex patriot Iranians in the USA. In their opinion the present religious government is supported by “the great unwashed” or what we would call ignorant rednecks. Nonetheless, if these unwashed rednecks are in the majority, I doubt that an invasion by the USA would be substantially supported. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2019, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812/375 "2019-07-22T00:00:23Z")
> [@XT](#): > > So, you base Iran trustworthiness on invasion? That’s the criteria you use?? :smack: Ok then. I guess China is a very trustworthy nation as well in your book. And North Korea has been extremely trustworthy since the early 50’s! No, I base my trustworthines on _not making false pretenses_. Invasions against international law are bad enough, but basingthem on false “WMD” that were never found is what makes me not to trust the USA over Iran. Also the USA agreed with Iran to do a number of things if Iran agreed to have it’s nuclear program monitored. Iran complied, the USA did not. I’m not aware of China abandoning any international agreement its leaders had signed, can you point me to one?. Furthermore we were discussing the US and Iran, not China and not NK. Also, do the words “Gulf of Tonkin incident” mean something to you? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-shoots-down-u-s-aircraft-over-international-waters/835812.md?page=18)