# Iran, the worst case scenario **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 23, 2007, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047 "2007-01-23T03:44:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/1 "2007-01-23T03:44:38Z")
Suppose Bush decides to launch airstrikes on Iranian “nuclear facilities”, how badly could things plausibly spiral out of control? ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/2 "2007-01-23T11:12:07Z")
Oddly, I don’t think that there is much Iran could do, well they could block of shipping, but I’m not sure how bad that would be. Other states in the area might get narked, but it is possible that Saudi et al would be secretly rather relieved. If Bush decides to do that, he would be wise to take out their airforce and trash their power stations at the same time. Somehow, I don’t think any of it is a very good idea - leaflets in Farsi explaining that the USA has no beef with 99% of the Iranian people, but is not keen on Ahmadinejad having a bomb, would be worth trying. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/3 "2007-01-23T11:33:01Z")
[QUOTE=alphaboi867] Suppose Bush decides to launch airstrikes on Iranian “nuclear facilities”, how badly could things plausibly spiral out of control? [/QUOTE] Oil at $200 a barrel or more? The entire Muslim world united against us and their own US supporting govts? A fundamantalist Saudi Arabia? Massive terrorist recruitment drive along with a renewed determination to hit back by any means available? As no one has demonstrated that Iran has either the desire for a bomb nor the capability and therefore is not a threat demanding immediate action all concerned should be treated as war criminals and the states involved as rogue states. And the supporters of the action as ‘fool me twice,’ imbeciles. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/4 "2007-01-23T11:34:57Z")
Bolding mine [QUOTE=FRDE] Oddly, **I don’t think that there is much Iran could do** , well they could block of shipping, but I’m not sure how bad that would be. Other states in the area might get narked, but it is possible that Saudi et al would be secretly rather relieved. If Bush decides to do that, he would be wise to take out their airforce and trash their power stations at the same time. **Somehow, I don’t think any of it is a very good idea** - leaflets in Farsi explaining that the USA has no beef with 99% of the Iranian people, but is not keen on Ahmadinejad having a bomb, would be worth trying. [/QUOTE] Suitcase nuke? ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/5 "2007-01-23T12:05:04Z")
[QUOTE=glee] Suitcase nuke? [/QUOTE] I would use a scheduled airliner - but I get your point, and consider it likely whatever one does to Iran. @Tagos, Maybe $200 oil, but a lot of people would love that Most Iranians are moslems, but not Arabs. - also the Sunni States are in danger of Islamisization anyway While I don’t much like Nuclear power, they seem to want it. And nobody seems that determined to stop them. I do find it _odd_ that Iran insists on producing its enriched uranium itself - especially when the world and its dog is offering a source of supply. Realistically, if anyone takes out Iran’s nuclear facilities, it will be the Israelis. They have the most to lose, and have a track record. ---
**Author:** ![Sapo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ec9cab/32.png) [@Sapo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sapo)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/6 "2007-01-23T13:47:54Z")
The price of caviar would go through the roof, for one. The US would be really stupid to launch such attack. Better leave Israel to do it. They are close enough to do it without having to ask for anyone’s cooperation and better able to dodge international scrutiny. Plus they have more of an interest to do it. ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/7 "2007-01-23T14:00:50Z")
Agreed, plus there would be deniability - Israel would not apparently be involved. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/8 "2007-01-23T14:07:18Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] Agreed, plus there would be deniability - Israel would not apparently be involved. [/QUOTE] In a “worst-case scenario”? I bet they would. Air strikes on Iranian facilities, followed by a declaration of jihad against Israel by Iran. Iran either launches a nuke against Israel, or hands a dirty bomb over to some terrorist group or other and lets them do it. Israel retaliates with nukes against Tehran and Syria. Difficulties ensue. Fifty years from now, the survivors are fighting each other over the radioactive deserts of the region. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/9 "2007-01-23T14:30:11Z")
[QUOTE=Sapo] The price of caviar would go through the roof, for one. The US would be really stupid to launch such attack. Better leave Israel to do it. They are close enough to do it without having to ask for anyone’s cooperation and better able to dodge international scrutiny. Plus they have more of an interest to do it. [/QUOTE] No person on the planet will believe Israel acted alone off their own bat. I wouldn’t. They have to fly through NATO/US controlled airspace to get there for one thing. The whole attack idea is stupid but it is going to happen despite there being no solid evidence Iran has nuclear weapons in mind. As a sig to the NPT they are completely entitled to nuclear power. As a sig they are also entitled to expect the nuclear powers to live up to their side of the bargain under Article VI. > [@](#): > > Article VI > > Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control. Of course radiation mutated pigs will fly before that happens. If Israel launches such an attack it should be treated as a rogue state. Iran is nowhere near a bomb even if it is pursuing one. Rafsanjani will be gone soon enough and doesn’t set foreign or military policy anyway. As by most accounts they are many years from a bomb, even under favourable circumstances, I think the push for war is just another example of Bush bellicosity and lies and the neo-con inability to see that the national interest of Israel and the USA are not the identical thing. If and when it becomes a threat and other methods have failed then more drastic action may become necessary. At this point, with the example of the lies and misjudgements of Iraq before us, to believ anything the current US administration says or support any bellicose policy it spews up would be stupidity. [Iran 10 years from bomb - National Intel Estimate](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/01/AR2005080101453_pf.html) > [@](#): > > A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis. > > The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House. Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered proof, that Tehran is moving determinedly toward a nuclear arsenal. The new estimate could provide more time for diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. President Bush has said that he wants the crisis resolved diplomatically but that “all options are on the table.” > > The new National Intelligence Estimate includes what the intelligence community views as credible indicators that Iran’s military is conducting clandestine work. But the sources said there is no information linking those projects directly to a nuclear weapons program. What is clear is that Iran, mostly through its energy program, is acquiring and mastering technologies that could be diverted to bombmaking. > > The estimate expresses uncertainty about whether Iran’s ruling clerics have made a decision to build a nuclear arsenal, three U.S. sources said. Still, a senior intelligence official familiar with the findings said that “it is the judgment of the intelligence community that, left to its own devices, Iran is determined to build nuclear weapons.” [Iran Years from bomb (still)](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4606356.stm) > [@](#): > > “They don’t currently have enough centrifuges working - so far as we know - to produce significant amounts of highly-enriched uranium or even enriched uranium. They would need a lot more,” he told the BBC News website. > > Even if the plant is made fully operational, it is currently configured to produce low enriched uranium (LEU) rather than the weapons-grade highly-enriched uranium (HEU). > > The IISS estimates that, if Iran decided to develop HEU, it could take it between three and five years to make enough for a single nuclear bomb, assuming that it mastered the technology. > > But the IISS also says it could take as long as 10 to 15 years, depending on Iran’s ability and intentions. > > Dr Barnaby agrees. > > “The CIA says 10 years to a bomb using highly enriched uranium and that is a reasonable and realistic figure in my opinion,” he said. > [@](#): > > Iran is also constructing a heavy-water research reactor at Arak, which Dr Barnaby says would “very efficiently produce plutonium of the sort that is good for nuclear weapons.” > > But this will not be ready until at least 2014, and probably later, the IISS has said. The ‘rush’ to war is just the same old same old. [White House stovepiping intelligence](http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/19/hersh-iran-agent/) > [@](#): > > On CNN, New Yorker journalist Seymour Hersh reported that a new CIA assessment concludes that “there’s no evidence Iran is doing anything that puts them close to a bomb.” Despite the intelligence agency’s conclusion, Hersh reports that the White House is still aggressively moving ahead with preparations for a military conflict with Iran. > > As part of the White House’s preparations for Iran, Hersh says President Bush and Vice President Cheney are “stovepiping” intelligence and keeping information provided by the Israelis hidden from the CIA. > > The Israelis are telling the White House, according to Hersh’s new article “The Next Act,” that they have a reliable agent inside Iran who reports that the nation is working on a trigger for a bomb. > [@](#): > > Prior to the Iraq war, the White House set up intelligence stovepipes to “get information they wanted directly to the top leadership.” Cheney and company relied on information provided by the Iraqi National Congress, an exile group headed by Ahmad Chalabi. “Chalabi’s defector reports were…flowing from the Pentagon directly to the Vice-President’s office, and then on to the President, with little prior evaluation by intelligence professionals.” > > State Dept. intelligence expert Greg Thielmann said that prior to the Iraq war that “garbage was being shoved straight to the President.” A U.S. official confirmed that defectors from Chalabi’s organization “had provided suspect information to numerous Western intelligence agencies. ‘It’s safe to say he tried to game the system,’ the official said.” > > Hersh’s article suggests a similar breakdown in the intelligence process is happening with regards to Iran and may open to door to possible intelligence manipulation. The Muslim world gets upset about cartoons. I think I’m on very safe grounds saying an unprovoked attack on a Muslim country will provoke something a lot stronger. ---
**Author:** ![uglybeech](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/82dd89/32.png) [@uglybeech](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/uglybeech)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/10 "2007-01-23T15:08:20Z")
China and Russia would register their displeasure. Plausibly that could spiral quite badly out of control. Particularly given the current administrations diplomatic track record. If you’re looking for the worst case scenario. We all know China holds our debt, and Russia still holds a monstrous nuclear arsenal. We don’t need confrontations with either of them. Pissing off the Muslim world, yet again, doesn’t seem that wise a move, IMHO. There are over a billion Muslims in the world, and about 50 countries are majority Muslim. Many of these countries in strategically important relationships with the U.S. The fallout is pretty hard to guess, but that’s a lot of variables to consider. But unifying Muslims in outrage against the U.S. might be a better scenario than fracturing Muslims along ethnic lines - an alternative outcome. A U.S. strike against a Shi’ite nation might agitate Shi’ite populations throughout the middle east where they are largely oppressed minorities under U.S.-friendly(ish) Sunni governments. You can see how that might causes problems. I would also have a hard time imagining the Maliki gov’t in Iraq surviving the fallout. What could Iran specifically do? Cause serious problems in Iraq and Lebanon (maybe Afghanistan?), bomb Israel, blockade the strait of Hormuz…hello - 40% of the world’s oil goes through there. Also, Iran has a low median age, with the young having a \*relatively \* favorable view of the U.S. That would be out the window if we bombed the country. The upside? You couldn’t stop nuclear development, most likely, but you might slow it down a hair. The more likely motivation is to prevent Iran from turning Iraq into a puppet government, which for obvious reasons, scares the bejezus out of the Bush administration. Bombing Iran into instability might accomplish that purpose. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/11 "2007-01-23T15:37:06Z")
An Israeli attack on Iran could be the straw that breaks the camle’s back-it might actually succeed in removing all US support for israel. face it-we have destroyed any goodwill we have in the Moslem world-and an oil embargo on the USA would put the US into a depression. Bush would be impeached, and the israelis might realize their worst fear-no more access to the US congress. This might result in the establishment of a Palestinian state and an end to the middle eastern wars. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/12 "2007-01-23T20:11:01Z")
How exactly would Bush get impeached if Israel attacked Iran? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/13 "2007-01-23T20:42:18Z")
Everyone who hopes that Israel will bomb Iran and spare the United States the neccessity is fooling themselves. Israel would only do so if such a bombing would actually work. Any such bombings would only delay Iran’s nuclear program. They don’t have a prayer of duplicating the Osirak bombing. And the idea that we let Israel do it and let them take the blame is also a fantasy. The Israelis would have to overfly Turkey, Saudi Arabia, or Syria/Jordan then Iraq to bomb Iran. Turkey and Saudi Arabia aren’t going to allow such overflights, and if they overfly Iraq with American permission how exactly do we avoid taking the blame? No matter what, if Israel bombs Iran the United States will get the blame, because there’s no way they could carry out such a bombing without the cooperation of the United States, even if such cooperation is limited to allowing them to overfly Iraq. And our chances of destroying Iran’s nuclear program with a few days of bombing is pretty much nil. Oh, we’ll knock it back a few years, but what good does that do exactly? Unless we hope to remove the Iranian regime before they get nuclear weapons a simple delay isn’t helpful and is much more likely to spur the nuclear program than stop it. And of course, the idea that we can bomb the Iranians one day and the next day we return to the status quo ante except Iran’s nuclear program is in tatters is simply laughable. The Iranian regime would be obligated to respond if they want to remain in power. And of course, we can’t forget not everything is about the United States. The sunni states have good reason to be wary of shia Iran. Not that they’ll support bombing Iran openly or anything, but don’t expect a unified Islamic front any more than one would expect a unified Christian front. One more thing about an oil embargo. The reduction in exports due to the ensuing crisis would send oil prices up, but an embargo against the United States while continuing to sell to Europe wouldn’t accomplish much. Oil is fungible. Iran can shut off oil exports and close the Straits of Hormuz, but an embargo against one country won’t accomplish anything besides shifting a bit of marginal profit from the Iranians and Americans to European middlemen. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/14 "2007-01-23T20:53:59Z")
[QUOTE=Lemur866] Everyone who hopes that Israel will bomb Iran and spare the United States the neccessity is fooling themselves. [/QUOTE] Everyone who thinks bombing Iran is a necessity is fooling themselves. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2007, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/15 "2007-01-23T22:18:48Z")
[QUOTE=alphaboi867] Suppose Bush decides to launch airstrikes on Iranian “nuclear facilities”, how badly could things plausibly spiral out of control? [/QUOTE] All the way. Military and diplomatic experts [wargamed](http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200412/fallows) that scenario in 2004, and nobody could come up with a way to stop it from escalating into a regional war. ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2007, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/16 "2007-01-24T13:31:44Z")
Last night, on the BBC World Service radio, I heard a report that N Korea had teamed up with Iran, and that Iran was getting N Korea’s latest technology. My guess is that Iran is sh/t scared, it just does not understand how to negotiate with the USA, a bit like Saddam. ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2007, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/17 "2007-01-24T13:47:47Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] My guess is that Iran is sh/t scared, it just does not understand how to negotiate with the USA, a bit like Saddam. [/QUOTE] This is an interesting point. **How do you negotiate with Bush?** Tony Blair had no luck persuading him to wait for a UN resolution, and we’re supposed to be allies… ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2007, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/18 "2007-01-24T14:18:14Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] Last night, on the BBC World Service radio, I heard a report that N Korea had teamed up with Iran, and that Iran was getting N Korea’s latest technology. My guess is that Iran is sh/t scared, it just does not understand how to negotiate with the USA, a bit like Saddam. [/QUOTE] My guess is that the story was disinformation planted as part of the ongoing low level campaign to prepare us for another pointless conflict. The original story was in the UK’s Daily Telegraph from an interview with an unnamed 'western intelligence official. Looks like classic disinfo to me. Especially the use of the Telegraph. (Remember the ‘story’ about the non-existent Jewish badges legislation passed by the Iranian Parliament?) [Now Introducing, the Office of Iranian Affairs (Formerly Doing Business as the Office of Special Plans)](http://www.counterpunch.org/leupp05302006.html) > [@](#): > > According to Laura Rozen of the Los Angeles Times, (link no longer active - Tagos) the Office of Special Plans has been reincarnated as the Office of Iranian Affairs, apparently housed in the same Pentagon offices inhabited by its predecessor and involving some of the same slimy personnel. Notably, Abram Shulsky, who headed the OSP under Douglas Feith, is back. His crew will be reporting to none other than Elizabeth Cheney, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, and daughter of the Vice President. Dick Cheney is generally understood to be the strongest advocate for an attack on Iran in the administration. > [@](#): > > Meanwhile, Abram Shulsky, the neocon’s neocon, a scholar of Leo Strauss and Machiavelli, who has written about the application of Strauss’s thought to intelligence, is back. The Straussians of course uphold the use of disinformation (“noble lies”) to prepare the public for the difficult choices they, the Wise, have made. Already there is evidence for the deliberate planting of bogus stories planted in the press, such as occurred in the months leading up to the Iraq attack. > [@](#): > > In the coming weeks I’d expect a rash of false reports emanating from the duplicitous fear-mongering apparatus straddling the press and the Bush administration as the western alliance heatedly debates Cheney’s plans to attack Iran, as Israel intensifies its campaign to encourage such an attack, and as U.S. efforts to legitimatize the use of force through the UN Security Council run their course. To quote the Telegraph itself in another related context. [Pentagon Disinformation](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/02/20/wprop20.xml) > [@](#): > > AMERICA’S western allies reacted with concern yesterday to the creation of a Pentagon department of propaganda aimed at planting disinformation in the media of America’s friends as well as its enemies. > > The Office of Strategic Influence has been set up to disseminate truthful information openly, but also to spread what one senior Pentagon official called “the blackest of black programmes”. > > The organisation, which is headed by a brigadier and has about 15 staff reporting directly to the under secretary of defence for policy, is already working on ways to influence and mislead the media in a number of countries, mostly in the Islamic world, but also in Western Europe. All our defaults - with the knowledge we now have - is not to believe one ‘ra-ra-war with Iran now’ word of any story unless there is highly credible independent evidence. Not one Chicken Little, The Sky is Falling word, not a single utterance of ‘wolf’ from a politician, unnamed intelligence sources or whoever should be met with any other response than ‘fool me once…’. ---
**Author:** ![Sapo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ec9cab/32.png) [@Sapo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sapo)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2007, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/19 "2007-01-24T15:23:19Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] Last night, on the BBC World Service radio, I heard a report that N Korea had teamed up with Iran, and that Iran was getting N Korea’s latest technology. My guess is that Iran is sh/t scared, it just does not understand how to negotiate with the USA, a bit like Saddam. [/QUOTE] And exactly how do you negotiate with the USA other than by dropping your pants and bending over? There is no negotiating with the US once they put you on their do-not-negotiate-with list. This is why we are in such a pickle now, the US abandons negotiation at the drop of a hat (or a building, or an atom bomb) and there is nothing after that. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Duality](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.duality/32/4098_2.png) [@Mr.Duality](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Duality)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2007, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047/20 "2007-01-24T16:01:48Z")
[QUOTE=ralph124c] An Israeli attack on Iran could be the straw that breaks the camle’s back-it might actually succeed in removing all US support for israel. face it-we have destroyed any goodwill we have in the Moslem world-and an oil embargo on the USA would put the US into a depression. Bush would be impeached, and the israelis might realize their worst fear-no more access to the US congress. This might result in the establishment of a Palestinian state and an end to the middle eastern wars. [/QUOTE] In a rational world, this scenario would be possible. Regrettably the governments of the U.S. and Israel are often just the opposite. I can’t imagine anything which would remove U.S. support for Israel. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-the-worst-case-scenario/389047.md?page=2)