# Iran threatens a "pre-emptive strike" against Israel **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 22, 2008, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100 "2008-10-22T19:04:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/1 "2008-10-22T19:04:21Z")
[Link.](http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1030279.html) Will Israel pre-empt that pre-emption? Should Israel do so? If Israel is hit first what would happen? If Israel hits first, after this statement, what would happen? ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/2 "2008-10-22T19:11:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Iran threatens a “pre-emptive strike” against Israel I think you mean “some senior officials in Iran are recommending” a pre-emptive strike against Israel. From your link: > [@](#): > > Senior Tehran officials are recommending a preemptive strike against Israel to prevent an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear reactors, a senior Islamic Republic official told foreign diplomats two weeks ago in London. […] > > Safavi said a small, experienced group of officials is lobbying for a preemptive strike against Israel. Will they convince the Iranian government to actually attempt such a thing? My completely non-expert opinion: Hell no. ---
**Author:** ![TWDuke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e495f1/32.png) [@TWDuke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TWDuke)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/3 "2008-10-22T19:18:45Z")
According to the article, Iran is actually threatening a preemptive strike in response to Israel’s own threat of a preemptive strike. So if this causes Israel to strike, they would be preempting a preemption of their preemption, which should illustrate one of the dangers of the policy of preemptive war. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/4 "2008-10-22T19:24:54Z")
[QUOTE=Kimstu] My completely non-expert opinion: Hell no. [/QUOTE] Pretty much sums up my own thoughts on this. I don’t think Iran has the capability to launch a real pre-emptive strike on Israel. This isn’t to say that Iran couldn’t hit Israel with something…they could. But a pre-emptive strike implies a real strategic strike intended to knock out some vital portion of the enemies war fighting capability (in this case Israel’s own air strike capability presumably)…and there is no way in hell, short of using a nuke Iran doesn’t have, that they could do more than seriously piss off Israel. This doesn’t include the international ramifications either…which probably wouldn’t be good. So…it’s all just Iran (or some Iranian official) shooting off it’s mouth or rattling it’s saber, probably for local consumption. If anyone is going to do a pre-emptive strike in this little drama it will be Israel against Iran…and I think the probability of that is only low to medium. -XT ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/5 "2008-10-22T19:26:12Z")
Iran does not have a realistic ability to conduct an effective first strike. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/6 "2008-10-22T19:35:07Z")
I’m not saying that I’d love to see it happen, because of the pain and suffering that would ensue. But, by god, if Iran tried, that’d be… real interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/7 "2008-10-22T19:40:50Z")
As noted Iran has nowhere near the capability to launch a strike on Israel that would do more than piss the Israelis off. Iran needs nukes to do anything to Israel which is of course why Israel wants to preemptively strike Iran so Iran cannot preemptively strike them first. (thinking about that makes me dizzy) ETA: Oddly, I cannot see a use for Iran’s sabre rattling. It just encourages the rest of the world to think Israel may be right to attack first. Iran should be adopting a, “Who? Us? We’re harmless!” stance till they get their nukes. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/8 "2008-10-22T19:41:02Z")
Even if there isn’t a shooting war that gets started, the news looks fairly good for the US. > [@](#): > > Safavi said Tehran recently drafted a new policy for responding to an Israeli or American attack on its nuclear facilities. While the previous policy called for attacks against Israel and American interests in the Middle East and beyond, the new policy is to target Israel alone. As for any actual attacks, right now it doesn’t look likely. Chances are any powers would wait until the end of the American election, at least. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/9 "2008-10-22T19:43:23Z")
‘Interesting’ in the Chinese sense of the word. 😉 I don’t want to see it happen either, but gods…it would be a riot to watch a simulation where no one would be hurt and using realistic parameters that factor in Iran’s realistic capabilities (training level, equipment and maintenance, Israel’s air defense system and ability to detect and scramble, training levels and equipments and maintenance, etc etc). I’d just like to see how Iran would plan to control and coordinate such a strike so far from home…and how many planes (or wings) would wander off and strike gods know what (assuming they’d get there at all…which I think is a pretty big assumption). -XT ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/10 "2008-10-22T19:47:29Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > As for any actual attacks, right now it doesn’t look likely. Chances are any powers would wait until the end of the American election, at least. It will be done after the election but before the next President takes office. It is in Israel’s best interest to attack before the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft radar system is installed. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/11 "2008-10-22T19:49:40Z")
Quite possibly, but Iran’s leadership may be more open to negotiation with one candidate than with another. War is not, yet, guaranteed. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/12 "2008-10-22T20:11:29Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > It will be done after the election but before the next President takes office. It is in Israel’s best interest to attack before the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft radar system is installed. If they don’t have them already the US should loan some F117 Nighthawks to Israel. Problem solved. I doubt we’d give anyone our stealth bombers though. Add in a wing of F22 Raptors to boot. Since the US is loathe to hand those to other countries perhaps a contingent of US pilots doing a foreign relations tour with their F22s. Of course the US pilots could not participate in an attack they could provide defense if Israel is attacked. A wing of F22s and an AWACS can own the whole Iranian Air Force solo (biggest problem is the F22 running out of ammo but when that happens they are used to help vector other planes in and keep the situation unpredictable for the enemy). ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/13 "2008-10-22T20:19:01Z")
> [@TWDuke](#): > > According to the article, Iran is actually threatening a preemptive strike in response to Israel’s own threat of a preemptive strike. So if this causes Israel to strike, they would be preempting a preemption of their preemption, which should illustrate one of the dangers of the policy of preemptive war. Can’t they just toss a coin to see who goes first?! ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/14 "2008-10-22T21:02:10Z")
> [@TWDuke](#): > > According to the article, Iran is actually threatening a preemptive strike in response to Israel’s own threat of a preemptive strike. So if this causes Israel to strike, they would be preempting a preemption of their preemption, which should illustrate one of the dangers of the policy of preemptive war. I see you’ve played preempty-spoonie before… ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/15 "2008-10-22T21:52:41Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > ETA: Oddly, I cannot see a use for Iran’s sabre rattling. It just encourages the rest of the world to think Israel may be right to attack first. Iran should be adopting a, “Who? Us? We’re harmless!” stance till they get their nukes. Like **xtisme** said; it’s probably being done for local political consumption. One assumes by someone too short sighted to know or care about the possible impact on international relations. That being said, being harmless didn’t help Saddam. ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/16 "2008-10-22T21:57:51Z")
Did anyone else notice the statement was made over two weeks ago? Is this really anything new, and of serious concern? I for one hope this doesn’t push the U.S. election in McCain’s favor. We just can’t afford to maintain our current international military footprint any further, and that includes our role as Israel’s big brother. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/17 "2008-10-22T22:02:26Z")
[QUOTE=Spectre of Pithecanthropus] I for one hope this doesn’t push the U.S. election in McCain’s favor. We just can’t afford to maintain our current international military footprint any further, and that includes our role as Israel’s big brother. [/QUOTE] Don’t fret. I don’t see how it could possibly effect the election, even marginally. I think most voters are focused almost exclusively on the economy atm…even Iraq isn’t the big issue everyone thought it was going to be in this election. Unless there is an actual shooting war between Israel and Iran in the next week or so (:dubious:!!) it won’t even get on the radar of most voters…nor should it. It’s just another cycle of snarling between Iran and Israel…and like much of what Iran says it’s really designed to play to their own citizens and base with perhaps a nod to a few other regional listeners. -XT ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2008, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/18 "2008-10-22T22:59:05Z")
The purpose of a pre-emptive strike is to disable the ability of your opponent to attack. Iran almost certainly lack this ability, so it would make absolutely no sense for them to attack Israel. They would be preempting anything, and would be ensuring US backing for an inevitable Israeli attack on them. This is all just tough talk for domestic consumption. Additionally even if they had somehow obtained enough weaponary, in secret, to acheive a successful pre-emptive strike on Israel (disabling their airforce and long-range-missiles, including submarine launched ones), all that would mean was the US would step in and respond to what would be unprevoked attack on their ally. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/19 "2008-10-23T05:59:48Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > Quite possibly, but Iran’s leadership may be more open to negotiation with one candidate than with another. War is not, yet, guaranteed. what part of annihilating Israel would be negotiated by the US? ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2008, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100/20 "2008-10-23T06:07:39Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > If they don’t have them already the US should loan some F117 Nighthawks to Israel. Problem solved. I doubt we’d give anyone our stealth bombers though. The F117 was [decommissioned](http://articles.latimes.com/2008/apr/23/business/fi-stealth23) earlier this year … [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-threatens-a-pre-emptive-strike-against-israel/469100.md?page=2)