# Iran waiting to DELIVER the first punch on 8/22? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 10, 2006, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171 "2006-08-10T16:42:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2006, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/21 "2006-08-11T19:42:46Z")
And of course Israel welcomes Iranian cargo ships into its ports every day of the week. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/22 "2006-08-12T01:27:27Z")
The world had better not end on the 22nd. My birthday is on the 25th and my girlfriend promised me a night to remember. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/23 "2006-08-12T01:38:42Z")
[QUOTE=Malodorous] So far as I know the US would have no treaty obligations to retaliate either. [/QUOTE] Isreal’s nukes are surely safe deep in bunkers, so WWIII might start over how to reap the radioactive oil from the embers. ---
**Author:** ![if6was9](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e47c2d/32.png) [@if6was9](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/if6was9)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 8:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/24 "2006-08-12T08:15:03Z")
[QUOTE=Oakminster] Even if Iran has a bomb, which seems doubtful, they’d also need a delivery system. Odds are they would not be able to get aircraft into Israel’s air space to drop a nuke, so that leaves missles. What have they got to deliver the goods? We saw what NK missles are like–cheap fireworks with unpredictable results. [/QUOTE] I was thinking of that and taking a pragmatic view. Iraq reached Israeli cities during the first Gulf War with SCUDs, barely more sophisticated than '50s technology. Hell, Hitler did the same thing with V-2s. Ballistic missiles rather than guided. It’s only a little farther from Iran to Israel. And I’m willing to bet Iran has more sophisticated missiles than SCUDs. I’m also willing to bet that our government KNOWS what missile capability they have, knows where it is if they do, and knows if it is in developement, planning or ready to launch. My pop culture knowledge looks only to the Cuban Missile Crisis for confirmation. I could even suspend my disbelief enough to think Iran might have _one_ nuclear bomb ready. It’s not entirely implausible. My point, if all these cards fell into place… the bomb, an actual capable missile system, online and ready to launch AND poised to launch, our gov would have satellites and intelligence that would **KNOW** this… and Ahmadinejad would NEVER get the chance to launch it. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/25 "2006-08-12T10:22:50Z")
[QUOTE=Oakminster] Even if Iran has a bomb, which seems doubtful, they’d also need a delivery system. Odds are they would not be able to get aircraft into Israel’s air space to drop a nuke, so that leaves missles. What have they got to deliver the goods? We saw what NK missles are like–cheap fireworks with unpredictable results. [/QUOTE] [FAS seems to think Iran’s got the goods.](http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/missile/shahab-3.htm) > [@](#): > > The Iranian Shahab-3 ballistic missile means Meteor-3 or Shooting Star-3 in Farsi [alternatively designated Zelzal (Earthquake)] is derived from the 1,300-1,500 kilometer range North Korean No-dong missile. The Shahab-3 reportedly has a range of between 1,300 and 1,500 kilometers and is capable of carrying a 1,000-760 kilogram warhead. Note that this is based on a _different_ NK missile type than those that recently went swimming, and they had help from the Russians and Chinese on the design. **if6was9** , I don’t share your optimism. After all, the government _knew_ that Osama’s plans for the US in September 2001 weren’t anything to be overly concerned about. The government _knew_ that Air Force One was a target on 9/11. The government _knew_ that Iraq had WMDs hidden somewhere. The government _knew_ that Iraq had a hand in 9/11. Hell, IIRC, the government _knew_ that in 1946 it would be at least another 10 years before the USSR got the bomb. In the 1960s some anti-war protestors confronted Robert McNamara with statements from military experts who said that the war in Vietnam was unwinnable, and Robert McNamara responded with something like, “You’re wrong because I have access to information you don’t know.” Engineers at NASA _knew_ there was a problem with launching the shuttle in cold weather and foam falling off the tank. And, finally, when a shipload of raw recruits and reservists radioed Pearl Harbor that they’d just sunk a Japanese mini-sub early in the morning on December 7th, 1941, headquarters _knew_ they must be mistaken and that there was nothing to worry about. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/26 "2006-08-12T14:39:23Z")
On Link TV Scott Ritter had a program on Iran and its nuclear program. He claims they have a legal right to pursue nuclear energy. (according to UN) He says they are seeking help on the sly because we have closed legal avenues off. Further ,that their program is beset with many troubles due to molybdimum in their ore and presents difficulties in purification. The ultimate aim is for nuclear energy to keep from using up their supply of oil which is running out. His information is they are far away from anything useful. We damn them because they have a big talking goofy leader. They damn us for the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![if6was9](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e47c2d/32.png) [@if6was9](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/if6was9)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/27 "2006-08-12T18:07:36Z")
[QUOTE=Tuckerfan] **if6was9** , I don’t share your optimism. After all, the government _knew_ that Osama’s plans for the US in September 2001 weren’t anything to be overly concerned about. The government _knew_ that Air Force One was a target on 9/11. The government _knew_ that Iraq had WMDs hidden somewhere. The government _knew_ that Iraq had a hand in 9/11. Hell, IIRC, the government _knew_ that in 1946 it would be at least another 10 years before the USSR got the bomb. In the 1960s some anti-war protestors confronted Robert McNamara with statements from military experts who said that the war in Vietnam was unwinnable, and Robert McNamara responded with something like, “You’re wrong because I have access to information you don’t know.” Engineers at NASA _knew_ there was a problem with launching the shuttle in cold weather and foam falling off the tank. And, finally, when a shipload of raw recruits and reservists radioed Pearl Harbor that they’d just sunk a Japanese mini-sub early in the morning on December 7th, 1941, headquarters _knew_ they must be mistaken and that there was nothing to worry about. [/QUOTE] I definitely see your point. My optimism comes from the satellite imagery capabilities (that I can only begin to imagine). Actual pictures of launch site, ready to strike (in the hypothetical, of course.) All of your examples are from intelligence, more speculative. Still, like you say, they have to _act_ on the evidence they have. No matter where it came from. Something else that gives me optimism (in a very skewed way…) is the fact that we are talking about a nuclear strike. A quantum leap (no pun…) above any of the threats you mentioned, or the world has ever seen. The potential devastation leads me to think they would act on very much less evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/28 "2006-08-12T20:11:03Z")
[QUOTE=if6was9] Something else that gives me optimism (in a very skewed way…) is the fact that we are talking about a nuclear strike. A quantum leap (no pun…) above any of the threats you mentioned, or the world has ever seen. The potential devastation leads me to think they would act on very much less evidence. [/QUOTE] And the terrorist attacks on 9/11 were several orders of magnetude greater than anything we’d seen before. We knew that those kind of attacks had been planned before (it almost happened to the French), we knew that suspicious types were learning to fly planes, we knew the time frame that _something_ was supposed to happen, and we did nothing. We had pictures of mobile bioweapons labs running around Iraq, yet none were found after the war. We also sent our guys into Iraq unstaffed and underequipped. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2006, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/29 "2006-08-12T23:08:20Z")
Has any one noticed how tough they talk. We were in the “mother of all wars”.Baghdad Ali talking out of his butt. The middle easterners seem to like hyperbole. We take it as speaking truth. Maybe we shouldn’t. If you sense a little rush to arm in the middle east. Remember our president naming the axis of evil. Then attacked Afghanistan. Then attacked Iraq. We are surprised they are arming themselves. Do you suppose they think they are on a hit list. Whether you accept it or not, I think it would play big in Iran and n. Korea.They are waiting for us. ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/30 "2006-08-13T10:16:50Z")
I don’t think that N. Korea is a problem - they are doing a complicated mating dance with S Korea - they saw what happened to East Germany, and want a better deal Iran is potentially dangerous, but obviously so. If they do something daft then there are two targets, the USA and Israel I am not that confident in the CIA, but I am very sure that Mossad has got people watching every move - also the initial technology came from Pakistan, and (despite internal problems) Pakistan is keen on keeping on good terms with the USA ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/31 "2006-08-13T16:46:34Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] I don’t think that N. Korea is a problem - they are doing a complicated mating dance with S Korea - they saw what happened to East Germany, and want a better deal [/QUOTE] Not a chance. First, the kind of people who run North Korea will never willingly give up power; besides being power mad, they would likely be killed and at the very least have to flee the country. Second, I doubt that South Korea would _want_ to unify with a basket case like the North. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/32 "2006-08-13T17:20:34Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] I don’t think that N. Korea is a problem - they are doing a complicated mating dance with S Korea - they saw what happened to East Germany, and want a better deal [/QUOTE] Didn’t the East Germans get a good deal? Even those who were in the Communist government are now free to run for office in the Federal Republic. Some **hold** office. The [Left Party,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left_Party_%28Germany%29) successor to the DDR’s ruling Social Unity Party, has 54 seats in the Bundestag. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/33 "2006-08-13T17:22:34Z")
[QUOTE=Der Trihs] Second, I doubt that South Korea would _want_ to unify with a basket case like the North. [/QUOTE] I think national/family feeling runs strong – and in many cases, families are literally divided by the border. Korea was a united nation for centuries. I’m sure the the South Koreans want that again, whatever it costs. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/34 "2006-08-13T17:32:18Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Didn’t the East Germans get a good deal? Even those who were in the Communist government are now free to run for office in the Federal Republic. Some **hold** office. The [Left Party,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left_Party_%28Germany%29) successor to the DDR’s ruling Social Unity Party, has 54 seats in the Bundestag. [/QUOTE] Well German “Unification” consisted of disolving the East German government and annexing it’s territory to West Germany. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/35 "2006-08-13T17:54:57Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] I think national/family feeling runs strong – and in many cases, families are literally divided by the border. Korea was a united nation for centuries. I’m sure the the South Koreans want that again, whatever it costs. [/QUOTE] Oh, I’m sure that many in the South would love for free travel to be allowed, in order to unify their families. I suppose it’s _possible_ that their nationalism is strong enough to eclipse fears that they would be dragged under economically; as someone with zero patriotic impulses I have trouble grasping that mentality. I will say that I think that “I want \< blank \>, whatever it costs !” probably sounds appealing right up until the prospect of actually having to pay looms up. I mean, from what I’ve heard they’d basically have to rebuild the North from the ground up; they’d be adding what amounts to an entire nation of welfare cases, with almost no ( marketable ) skills or assets. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/36 "2006-08-13T18:04:14Z")
[QUOTE=alphaboi867] Well German “Unification” consisted of disolving the East German government and annexing it’s territory to West Germany. [/QUOTE] Yeah, but that turned out to be a good deal for East Germans – **including** their political class. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2006, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/37 "2006-08-13T18:07:57Z")
[QUOTE=Der Trihs] I mean, from what I’ve heard they’d basically have to rebuild the North from the ground up; they’d be adding what amounts to an entire nation of welfare cases, with almost no ( marketable ) skills or assets. [/QUOTE] But they can provide cheap labor. I would expect a flood of former North Koreans southward after unification – and it would hard for the Southerners to think of them as “immigrants” when they speak the same language and everything. Before long, they’ll be the nannies and gardeners (a social distinction likely to fade in one or two generations). Also, the North would be ripe for all kinds of entrepreneurial investments and developments, almost as much as if it were completely uninhabited, virgin territory. See, it’s not so one-sided. ---
**Author:** ![FRDE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e68b1a/32.png) [@FRDE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FRDE)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 9:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/38 "2006-08-14T09:18:43Z")
The East Germans do not reckon that they got a good deal. Their social structure (support) was ripped away, and they have high unemployment. My understanding is that West Germany did not realize quite how weak the E. German infrastructure really was. North and South Korea have been making friendly noises for quite some time, there is something about them fielding a single sports team, a bit like the India - Pakistan cricket love fest. > **[North and South Korea to join forces in fight for Olympic gold](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/nov/02/northkorea)** > > ¡ Team for Beijing 2008 represents breakthrough ¡ Lack of food and facilities hinder northern athletes. |Wednesday November 2, 2005 |The Guardian |North and South Korea will re-unite at the Beijing Olympics in 2008 by fielding a joint team for the first time since the troubled peninsula was divided 60 years ago.| The North is in a bit of a state, they have food problems. Their Nuclear stuff was really triggered by the USA who stopped supplying subsidized oil. The N.K. nomenclatura need to be bought off, but I expect they are actually quite sophisticated - I ran into a US Army officer on the Net who was asking questions about marrying a N.K. translator who spoke Engish and Russian, she was educated in Russia, and it must have been within the last 10 years as she was under 30. There is also a problem with S Korea farmers, the country women have skipped off to the cities to work in factories - as a result the farmers are wifeless and are importing from all over the place - the most successful appear to be from ethnic Koreans in China. - that was on the BBC World Service about a year ago Personally I would be inclined to flood N Korea with agricultural equipment and other useful things - gradually improving their standard of living would prepare them for re-unification N Korea is pretty friendly with China, and is probably watching how things are going there with a great deal of interest. I remember something about a freighter that was found to have a hold full of N Korean missiles, at first there was a fuss, then they realized that they were destined for Yemen (one of the good guys) and waved on their way. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/39 "2006-08-14T13:42:43Z")
[QUOTE=FRDE] I remember something about a freighter that was found to have a hold full of N Korean missiles, at first there was a fuss, then they realized that they were destined for Yemen (one of the good guys) and waved on their way. [/QUOTE] Hm! So NK is capable of manufacturing **something!** ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2006, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171/40 "2006-08-14T17:52:54Z")
I worked with some Germans not long after they took east Germany. The cost practically crippled them . They had the Russian reactors and the infrastructure was 30 years in the past. Everything had to be rebuilt or updated, just to make it safe. they claimed Chernobyls were possible. Sanitation etc [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-waiting-to-deliver-the-first-punch-on-8-22/368171.md?page=3)