# Iran: What Do the Israelis Know? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 10, 2007, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498 "2007-12-10T17:40:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/1 "2007-12-10T17:40:54Z")
.that we don’t? Read today’s Drudge Report: the israelis claim that the US is ignoring the “truth” about Iran’s nuclear weapons-and it is comparable to ignoring the WWII holocaust. My question: if the Israelis have such good intelligence (proving that Iran is close to haveing nuclear bombs)-then why haven’t they revealed it? As a secondary question: how likely is it that Israeli intelligence might have high-level moles inside the iranian nuclear effort? Is this possible? It sounds like the Israelis are hell-bent on war with Iran: I say, “go ahead”-just leave me out. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/2 "2007-12-10T17:51:06Z")
At least, starting now my new thing is to say everything that annoys me is comparable to the holocaust here’s a [link](http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3480595,00.html) ---
**Author:** ![nd\_n8](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/439d5e/32.png) [@nd\_n8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nd_n8)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/3 "2007-12-10T18:58:29Z")
It sounds to me like the wording used is the language of propaganda. Step 1. Instill shame and self doubt by invoking the holocost. > [@](#): > > “In the middle of the previous century the Americans received intelligence reports from Auschwitz on the packed trains going to the extermination camps. They claimed then that the railways were industrial. Their attitude today to the information coming out of Iran on the Iranians’ intention to produce a nuclear bomb reminds one of their attitude during the holocaust.” Step 2. Instill more shame and self doubt by invoking self referencing memes. > [@](#): > > “How can we rely on the Americans if they publish this report that emasculates **what the world explicitly knows regarding Iran** , and renders impotent the entire struggle against the Iranians?” > [@](#): > > “International pressure on Iran must continue. **We know the truth, as does the rest of the world.** We must not play dumb in the face of the report’s supposed findings. This report is mistaken and is only trying to delay the inevitable. It has only intensified the danger. Don’t say this is more of the usual, because we are thus likely to fall asleep and wake up with a nuclear Iran.” Step 3. Cap it off by emasculating the leader of the western world (ok, so this step is not so hard) > [@](#): > > “It can not be that (US President George W.) Bush is committed to peace as was declared at Annapolis, and then the Americans propagate such an intelligence report which contradicts the information we have proving Iran intends to obtain nuclear weapons,” Step 4. Sit back and wait. If the west attacks Iran and finds no evidence of nukes then it is the west’s fault for not waiting for / listening to more reliable intelligence. If the west does not attack Iran and Iran attacks Israel then it is the west’s fault for ignoring or minimizing the situation in the first place. > [@](#): > > “Even if the world lacks clear evidence, the (Iranian) agenda is clear. We have no doubt that it is (President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollahs who are directing the program. **Israel has gathered enough information to obligate the international community to continue with its intensive activity against creating a bomb** ,” If Israel has information it is not sharing then it should share, if not then it should not try to incite public reaction and support based on heresay and memes. ---
**Author:** ![Wildfire\_MM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f08c70/32.png) [@Wildfire\_MM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wildfire_MM)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/4 "2007-12-10T19:12:06Z")
[QUOTE=ralph124c] .that we don’t? Read today’s Drudge Report: the israelis claim that the US is ignoring the “truth” about Iran’s nuclear weapons-and it is comparable to ignoring the WWII holocaust. My question: if the Israelis have such good intelligence (proving that Iran is close to haveing nuclear bombs)-then why haven’t they revealed it? As a secondary question: how likely is it that Israeli intelligence might have high-level moles inside the iranian nuclear effort? Is this possible? It sounds like the Israelis are hell-bent on war with Iran: I say, “go ahead”-just leave me out. [/QUOTE] The israelis use the Holocaust-card again ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/5 "2007-12-10T19:16:27Z")
[QUOTE=nd\_n8] If Israel has information it is not sharing then it should share, if not then it should not try to incite public reaction and support based on heresay and memes. [/QUOTE] At the risk of pointing out the obvious, Cohen =/= Shas, Cohen =/= Israel, Israel =/= Shas. A Shas politician made some statements. Do not confuse them with “Israel does thus and such” any more than any time Trent Lott said something it would be accurate to say “America has said thus and such” It would be interesting to see who in which governments, and especially who in which intelligence services has been saying/believing/thinking/finding what. And what they’re shared. For instance [there is now talk](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/12/09/wiran109.xml) that certain “British spy chiefs” may agree to a certain extend with some of Israel’s intelligence agents. These opinions may or may not be shared by some in the US intelligence community, as well. > [@](#): > > A US intelligence source has revealed that some American spies share the concerns of the British and the Israelis. “Many middle- ranking CIA veterans believe Iran is still committed to producing nuclear weapons and are concerned that the agency lost a number of its best sources in Iran in 2004,” the official said. Finding out who, exactly, has been saying what would help much more than just talking about “The British” “The Americans” or “The Israelis.” ---
**Author:** ![nd\_n8](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/439d5e/32.png) [@nd\_n8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nd_n8)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/6 "2007-12-10T20:09:53Z")
Point taken. Allow me then to slightly modify my last statement: [QUOTE=nd\_n8] If Israel has information it is not sharing then it should share, if not then representatives of internal factions should not try to further their cause (and possibly their careers) by inciting public reaction and support based on hearsay and memes. [/QUOTE] As an American, this version may be more correct but somehow seems more hypocritical than the first version. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/7 "2007-12-10T20:19:53Z")
Somehow, I don’t think we have to worry about the Israelis having intelligence about Iran’s nuclear weapons program and not sharing it with the US. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/8 "2007-12-10T20:21:45Z")
[QUOTE=FinnAgain] At the risk of pointing out the obvious, Cohen =/= Shas, Cohen =/= Israel, Israel =/= Shas. [/QUOTE] At the risk of \*stressing \* the obvious, Cohen and Yishai are basically Falwell and Robertson in funny hats. As for Iran… I’m waiting to hear what the Mossad has to say, because frankly, I trust them more than I trust the CIA. They’ve made their share of mistakes in the past, of course, but they still have a better track record, and if they’re biased then at least they’re not biased against me. ---
**Author:** ![Sophistry\_and\_Illusion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b3f665/32.png) [@Sophistry\_and\_Illusion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sophistry_and_Illusion)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/9 "2007-12-10T20:43:51Z")
[QUOTE=Alessan] At the risk of \*stressing \* the obvious, Cohen and Yishai are basically Falwell and Robertson in funny hats. [/QUOTE] Oh, so you mean they represent a demographically significant and politically powerful segment of the population? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/10 "2007-12-10T21:33:07Z")
[QUOTE=Sophistry and Illusion] Oh, so you mean they represent a demographically significant and politically powerful segment of the population? [/QUOTE] Unfortunately, yes. Roughly 8%, numerically, and while their constituency isn’t all that politically powerful in and of itself, _they_ are. ---
**Author:** ![Sophistry\_and\_Illusion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b3f665/32.png) [@Sophistry\_and\_Illusion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sophistry_and_Illusion)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/11 "2007-12-10T21:39:35Z")
[QUOTE=Alessan] Unfortunately, yes. Roughly 8%, numerically, and while their constituency isn’t all that politically powerful in and of itself, _they_ are. [/QUOTE] Yeah. One problem with democracies is its the nuts who are the most motivated. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/12 "2007-12-10T22:10:22Z")
[QUOTE=Wildfire\*\*MM] The israelis use the Holocaust-card again [/QUOTE] Well _an_ Israeli did. Close though. ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/13 "2007-12-10T22:37:15Z")
[QUOTE=Wildfire\*\*MM] The israelis use the Holocaust-card again [/QUOTE] It is not a “card” if it is actually relevant. Is it now no longer possible to invoke the Holocaust in any context outside the Holocaust Museum or a history class? I am being only partly facetious here. ---
**Author:** ![nd\_n8](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/439d5e/32.png) [@nd\_n8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nd_n8)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2007, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/14 "2007-12-10T23:05:22Z")
[QUOTE=Maeglin] It is not a “card” if it is actually relevant. Is it now no longer possible to invoke the Holocaust in any context outside the Holocaust Museum or a history class? I am being only partly facetious here. [/QUOTE] Sure it is. Mark Furmann made overt racist statements during the OJ trial making the integrity of his testimony racially relevant and Cochran used “The race card”. Saying America, Great Brittan, The Vatican whomever dropped the ball on the Holocaust is not going to change what happened. Invoking the Holocaust as a means to insite guilt and shame as opposed to using actual intelligence and evidence to call to action is as facetious as refering to every bad person in the world as Hitler. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2007, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/15 "2007-12-11T01:14:27Z")
I guess I’d like to know what ACTUALLY is known about Iran’s nuclear program. Knowing the CIA’s tendency to lie, I don’t trust their accounts. I also don’t trust GWB-his track record of veracity doesn’t impress me. Now, we are told that Iran halted its weapons program 4 years ago. Now, the IAEA (Dr. El Baradei) says that Iran has no active weapons program. Who to believe? Do we have any hard evidence of any of this? or is this all speculation, by those who want a war with Iran? ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2007, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/16 "2007-12-11T02:35:28Z")
[QUOTE=ralph124c] Now, we are told that Iran halted its weapons program 4 years ago. Now, the IAEA (Dr. El Baradei) says that Iran has no active weapons program. Who to believe? Do we have any hard evidence of any of this? [/QUOTE] Actually… the NIE said that, on the judgment that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the halt lasted at least several years, that they could render a judgment that was “based on high-quality information, and/or that the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment.” On the count that Iran still had its nuclear weapons program under suspension, the NIE said that judgment was “credibly sourced and plausible but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence.” So, specifically with the NIE: that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, and that freeze lasted at least a few years? Solid judgment. That Iran still has its nuclear program under suspension? Plausible judgment but the intel isn’t of a sufficent quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence. That is, that Iran _still_ has its nuclear weapons program suspended is _not_ a solid judgment. Likewise, the IAEA has stated in a recent report that [ > [@](#): > > G. Summary > 22. The Agency is able to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in Iran. Iran has been providing the Agency with access to declared nuclear material, and has provided the required nuclear material accountancy reports in connection with declared nuclear material and facilities. However, the Agency remains unable to verify certain aspects relevant to the scope and nature of Iran’s nuclear > programme. It should be noted that since early 2006, the Agency has not received the type of information that Iran had previously been providing, including pursuant to the Additional Protocol, for example information relevant to ongoing advanced centrifuge research. > > 1. The work plan is a significant step forward. If Iran finally addresses the long outstanding verification issues, the Agency should be in a position to reconstruct the history of Iran’s nuclear programme. Naturally, the key to successful implementation of the agreed work plan is Iran’s full and active cooperation with the Agency, and its provision to the Agency of all relevant information and > access to all relevant documentation and individuals to enable the Agency to resolve all outstanding issues. To this end, the Agency considers it essential that Iran adheres to the time line defined therein and implements all the necessary safeguards and transparency measures, including the measures > provided for in the Additional Protocol. > > 2. Once Iran’s past nuclear programme has been clarified, Iran would need to continue to build confidence about the scope and nature of its present and future nuclear programme. Confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme requires that the Agency be able to provide assurances not only regarding declared nuclear material, but, equally important, regarding the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, through the implementation of the Additional Protocol. The Director General therefore again urges Iran to ratify and bring into force the Additional Protocol at the earliest possible date, as requested by the Board of Governors and the Security Council. ]([http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2007/gov2007-48.pdf](http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2007/gov2007-48.pdf)) In other words, the IAEA can certify that nothing that Iran has shown them has been diverted to weaponization programs, but they cannot certify that Iran doesn’t have any such programs, because Iran has not been cooperating fully. By implementing the Additional Protocol. Specifically, by implementing the AP, the IAEA would be able to confirm the scope and nature of Iran’s nuclear program (ie. totally peaceful or not) as well as being able to confirm that there was no undeclared nuclear program. So _neither_ the IAEA nor the NIE have said that Iran does not have an active weapons program. Both have said that there isn’t any evidence that there is such a program, but due to Iran’s actions, gaps in our knowledge have made it impossible to fully verify the state of Iran’s current nuclear program. The IAEA, for its part, certainly has hard evidence that its inspections haven’t turned up anything actionable. They also know their job, and know that without the AP they cannot certify Iran’s nuclear program as being totally peaceful, but that with it, they can. IIRC, the IAEA was supposed to have gathered more evidence by November 22nd, but either they haven’t been able to gather it or it’s taking them some time to write up a report. Hopefully in the next few weeks they’ll have more info for us. The NIE’s report, most likely, if the Telegraph article is accurate, is based on “human sources, wireless intercepts and evidence from an Iranian defector”. Whether or not that rises to the level of hard evidence is probably a subjective call. But even going from the Telegraph article, the only real objections from British and Israeli intelligence sources are that they too simply aren’t sure, and they think that Iran may have fed the CIA disinformation. So, it all boils down to “_we don’t know_.” The IAEA has been thorough and professional, but cannot complete their analysis without Iran’s cooperation. The global intelligence community seems to be divided and even the NIE only stated that Iran having its nuclear program remain suspended to mid 2007 was plausible but not well enough supported to be a solid judgment. Personally, I would suggest that as long as one pays attention to the caveats and qualifiers, there’s no real contradiction between much of the intel data and no real reason to ask who we should believe. All the intel agencies, right now, are saying that they’re not certain, while some believe that it is at best plausible but not solid that Iran isn’t working on nuclear weapons at the present. As long as you’re comfortable with ambiguity and uncertainty, there’s really not much of an issue. But if the the CIA, and/or MI6 and/or Mossad are playing politics game with intel? Fuck it, all bets are off. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2007, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/17 "2007-12-11T02:43:18Z")
Jack Shaw [of the “Iraqi WMD were moved to Syria (and Lebanon)” fame] maintains that the DIA accused Israelis [none specifically] of disseminating disinformation re Iraqs WMD. Shaw mentioned that some of the info came to him from his “British contacts” and “London” [http://www.irrationallyinformed.com/search05i.php?misc=search&subaction=showfull&id=1140369715&archive=&cnshow=news&ucat=&start\_from=&](http://www.irrationallyinformed.com/search05i.php?misc=search&subaction=showfull&id=1140369715&archive=&cnshow=news&ucat=&start_from=&) Something to keep in mind. ---
**Author:** ![aptronym](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e47774/32.png) [@aptronym](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aptronym)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2007, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iran-what-do-the-israelis-know/429498/18 "2007-12-11T02:57:13Z")
[QUOTE=FinnAgain] So, it all boils down to “_we don’t know_.” [/QUOTE] It seems awfully odd to me that people still consider the combination of “we don’t really know” and “everybody thinks one way” to equal “everybody knows”. Didn’t we _just_ go through this with Iraq? We didn’t really have any convincing evidence, but everyone “knew” they had WMD. Look where that thinking got us. If the President is going to send Americans to die and American dollars to be spent, I want more than a conspiracy theory. And that’s what Iranian WMD programs are right now - a conspiracy theory. We have no evidence, but cite the lack of evidence as evidence.