# Iraq: Any Honorable Peace? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 11, 2004, 10:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182 "2004-11-11T10:32:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2004, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/21 "2004-11-12T12:58:03Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Ladies and gentlemen, for your entertainment pleasure, the song stylings of Miss Rosy Scenario…(and the crowd goes wild…) > > Yes, I rather imagine he is, since the word “democracy” can hardly be spoken without saying “Hand the country over to the Shia majority”. This is, at bottom, what our pious words about democracy mean. > > I have to ask, **Sam** : do you really think that if all indications were that an election would solidly embrace a Shia theocracy hostile to American interests and dominance, that such an election would be permitted to go forward? Or will some “plausible” excuse be offered why such a thing does not happen? President Bush has stated if thats what the people want, he’d be dissapointed but would accept it. ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2004, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/22 "2004-11-12T13:05:55Z")
Just some points: - The insurgency has Shia and Sunni in it… in big numbers. Don’t delude yourself thinking its a Sunni problem Sam. - The insurgency is most certainly getting outside and inside help. Insiders being Iraqi police and military. Outsiders like I explained above have every reason to help the insurgency grow. The US has threatened Iran and Syria… there is no reason for them not to help insurgents or at least turn a blind eye to them crossing borders. Weapons and explosives besides being plentiful… are probably being smuggled in all the time. The US can’t guard everything all the time. - Reconstruction: Certainly making Iraq more agreeable and prosperous helps… but US officials are bickering on this. They want more security before reconstruction money flows in… but the security people want more reconstruction in order to boost security sucess. Its simply not viable to do things before security gets better… catch 22 I think you call it. - Iraqi Hearts and Minds… were lost months ago. No matter what the US does… they will always be seen suspiciously at best… hostile normally. Don’t expect international support after Bush’s diplomacy either. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2004, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/23 "2004-11-12T13:30:06Z")
> [@Rashak Mani](#): > > Just some points: > > - The insurgency has Shia and Sunni in it… in big numbers. Don’t delude yourself thinking its a Sunni problem Sam. > > - The insurgency is most certainly getting outside and inside help. Insiders being Iraqi police and military. Outsiders like I explained above have every reason to help the insurgency grow. The US has threatened Iran and Syria… there is no reason for them not to help insurgents or at least turn a blind eye to them crossing borders. Weapons and explosives besides being plentiful… are probably being smuggled in all the time. The US can’t guard everything all the time. > > - Reconstruction: Certainly making Iraq more agreeable and prosperous helps… but US officials are bickering on this. They want more security before reconstruction money flows in… but the security people want more reconstruction in order to boost security sucess. Its simply not viable to do things before security gets better… catch 22 I think you call it. > > - Iraqi Hearts and Minds… were lost months ago. No matter what the US does… they will always be seen suspiciously at best… hostile normally. Don’t expect international support after Bush’s diplomacy either. Ahhh the voice of reason as always Rashak Mani. :rolleyes: Even though I like to respect your opinions, you do get on my nerves sometimes. Do you ever notice anything positive happening withing Iraq? [http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1100059900391](http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1100059900391) Syrian leader wants a dialogue with US. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2004, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/24 "2004-11-12T13:47:55Z")
[QUOTE=Derleth] [li] **We leave now.** …But if we do that, we’ll give _carte blanche_ to the extremists to sieze control and create a government that not only makes Saddam’s regime look like a garden party, but will help create the next generation of terrorists out of the people we just bombed and invaded.[/li][/quote] It’s hard to see how that can be avoided anymore. I don’t see Iran invading, though, their military has to be of either questionable effectiveness or questionable loyalty to the mullahs, and perhaps needs to be kept at home. [quote] [li] **We let Iraq fall apart along its natural fault lines.** [/li][/quote] The process can be helped along with external diplomacy, but I agree partition looks for now to be the only alternative to the civil war we lack the power to prevent. > [@](#): > > It is, of course, completely unworkable. If we do this, the fighting in the region will be non-stop. It will be worse than India versus Pakistan, if only because the amount of land in question is so small. Not inevitably. The India/Pakistan fighting was so intense largely because of long-standing ethnic hatreds that don’t seem to be nearly as extreme in Iraq, and largely because of the massive refugee flows both ways once nearly-arbitrary lines were drawn. For the most part, the local populations seem largely homogeneous in Iraq, and the approximate (or sometimes even exact) borders are largely accepted. It wouldn’t be pretty, no, but it might still be workable. [quote] [li] **We try to create a functional government.** This is what we’re (apparently) trying to do now.[/li][/quote] Except that there’s no good reason to believe that it will be any better than Saddam’s once we’re gone, just that it will have less control and will have to seize it more bloodily. Allawi was one of Saddam’s assassins, remember - why should we invest any hope in him? You’re right about an occupation government lacking the consent of the governed. Bring in the UN, or at least some outfit that doesn’t look to the locals like imperialist aggressors, to draw the lines and wish them all the best with their own independent homelands. That’s all we have left. ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2004, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/25 "2004-11-12T13:49:23Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Syrian leader wants a dialogue with US. Well the article nicely points out how Syria isn’t doing much to hold cross border militants… and how the US has put sanctions on Syria. So am I wrong in saying that Syria has interests in helping the insurgency ? That the US isn’t exactly friendly to Syria. Where am I not “the voice of reason” ? Naturally Syria will try dialogue… they aren’t stupid. They must at the least give lip service to cooperation… even if they do really want to help out… local officials in the border area might have other ideas about their fellow muslims in Iraq. Practice and rhetoric aren’t the same. I wouldn’t call this “dialogue” a great positive. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2004, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/26 "2004-11-12T14:06:12Z")
> [@Rashak Mani](#): > > Well the article nicely points out how Syria isn’t doing much to hold cross border militants… and how the US has put sanctions on Syria. So am I wrong in saying that Syria has interests in helping the insurgency ? That the US isn’t exactly friendly to Syria. Where am I not “the voice of reason” ? > > Naturally Syria will try dialogue… they aren’t stupid. They must at the least give lip service to cooperation… even if they do really want to help out… local officials in the border area might have other ideas about their fellow muslims in Iraq. Practice and rhetoric aren’t the same. I wouldn’t call this “dialogue” a great positive. Syria would have alot to gain by being the US friend. Taking small steps towards dialogue is a start. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2004, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/27 "2004-11-12T14:10:14Z")
Nonetheless, “dialogue” is one of those terms used that, if mutually accepted, indicates a state less than open hostility. It is one step down from “frank exchange” and two steps down from “frank and cordial exchange”. Thankfully, it is equally far from such sphincter-loosening words like “utimatum”. As well, it seems to indicate a willingness to sculpt a ME policy that is not entirely designed for the safety and well-being of Israel. As much sympathy for the Isrealis as I have, and it is abundant, I am too often assailed by the quesy feeling that we are Israel’s best friend, next to Israel, and Israel is Israel’s only friend. Open hostility between the US and Syria is likely to be viewed from Tel Aviv with calm aplomb. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2004, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/28 "2004-11-12T15:11:18Z")
> [@Rashak Mani](#): > > Well the article nicely points out how Syria isn’t doing much to hold cross border militants… and how the US has put sanctions on Syria. So am I wrong in saying that Syria has interests in helping the insurgency ? Of course not. From their viewpoint, we’re outsiders, who can be driven away. The Syrians and Iraqis are there, as neighbors, for the long run. Assad is, very reasonably, betting on the insurgents to ultimately win control of Iraq and drive the Americans out, and he’d rather be his neighbors’ friend than their enemy - plus, he can get them to owe him in return for his support. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/29 "2004-11-13T02:56:46Z")
**elucidator:** Would the U.S. accept a Shia majority government? I dunno - what form will the government take. If it’s a Republic with representation by all parties, and limited Democracy (“limited” in the sense of a constitutional Democracy), then I don’t see this as a disaster. There are a lot of other countries who have figured out how to let minorities live within a Democracy without being stomped by the majority. The U.S. and Canada, for example. Another thing - I think the next couple of months will be really telling. I get the sense that a lot of things in the middle east were on ‘hold’ while the U.S. election played out and all the various factions waited to see which way the wind would blow. The timing of Assad’s desire to re-open a ‘dialogue’ may be telling. Now that everyone in the region knows they are stuck with Bush for four more years, you may see a withering of will in the insurgency, and a little more desire to negotiate from other regions. Couple that with Arafat’s death, and this may be a real turning point. But we’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/30 "2004-11-13T06:17:28Z")
Latest from [Riverbend](http://www.riverbendblog.blogspot.com/) on Falloojeh: > [@](#): > > Iraqis will never forgive this- never. It’s outrageous- it’s genocide and America, with the help and support of Allawi, is responsible. May whoever contributes to this see the sorrow, terror and misery of the people suffering in Falloojeh. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/31 "2004-11-13T07:20:01Z")
Oh yeah? Well, I see your Riverbend, and raise you [Iraq The Model](http://www.iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/) > [@](#): > > In the name of God, > Sir, President George W Bush, President of the United States of America. > On behalf of the families of the victims of the mass graves, on behalf of the martyrs of “Halabja” and “Anfal” and on behalf of all the Iraqis that you liberated from dictatorship and oppression; we have prayed for you and now we want to send you our congratulations on being reelected as a president of the United States. > > Mr. President, we’d love to congratulate you and the people of the United States on the beginning of a new phase of democracy, freedom and prosperity and we wish you and the American people the best, as they have led the liberation of Iraq and sacrificed their sons and daughters for the freedom of the Iraqis; the historical achievement that the United States has accomplished together with the other liberating countries. > The united States and the coalition, among all other nations were the ones who recognized the suffering of the Iraqi people and saved them from a regime that was more lethal and more destructive than any weapons of mass destruction. A regime that murdered, slaughtered and enslaved Iraqis for long, dark decades, denied them their freedom and their right to live a decent life until God inspired you and helped you to rescue us, liberate our country and put us on the road of freedom and democracy. > > Mr. President, we-the Iraqis-are on your side and we’ll keep supporting and blessing your efforts in eradicating terrorism inside and outside Iraq and all those who carried weapons against the liberating coalition forces and the new Iraqi police, hunting down the criminals who murder innocent civilians, whether Iraqi or American civilians. > > We-the Iraqis- are determined to establish democracy and freedom in our country starting with general elections that exclude no one whether inside or outside Iraq. These elections would lead us to a democratic Iraq and we wish that you could help focusing on the role of the Iraqis outside Iraq and make use of their qualifications in the reconstruction process. > We also want to emphasize the necessity of establishing an international legislation that incriminates the Ba’athists, terrorists, fanatic salafis and all the parties, and governments that support them, not forgetting the media that promote the ideology of killing and terrorism. > These parties ought to be confronted and fought to achieve peace and stability in Iraq, America and the rest of the world. > We’re also determined to establish a strategic, permanent relationship with our friends; the government and people of the United States to whom we hold the utmost feelings of gratitude, love and friendship for what they have given us and what they’re still offering. > We will be united on the road of freedom and peace and we will always be supportive to all the efforts of America in bringing peace to the region. > In the end, we ask God to guide you and bless all your efforts to do the best for humanity as a whole. > > All the glory to the American and Iraqi martyrs > long live America. Long live Iraq, free and allied nations. > > Your brothers in the “Iraqi Parliament” voice chat room and in “Sawt Al Iraq” website. > … > The decision to enter Fallujah also shows clearly that the government is determined to build security and stability and to create a healthy environment for the coming elections and in fact the government realized that this is a public demand and that the time has come to answer this demand and start dealing really tough with the terrorists and outlaws. Or from [The Messopotamian](http://messopotamian.blogspot.com/): > [@](#): > > For the valiant soldiers doing battle in Falujah today: like the medieval knights, you have engraved on your shields severed heads of kidnapped victims, murdered children, the hundreds of thousands of the dwellers of mass graves. You are the instruments of the Lord’s retribution. Have no mercy on this vermin, they do not deserve any. > > God bless you and protect you for you are doing his work. > > Salaam It seems that in Iraq, like America, there are differences of opinion. ---
**Author:** ![Nietzsche](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/8dc957/32.png) [@Nietzsche](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nietzsche)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/32 "2004-11-13T07:47:20Z")
**Sam** : > [@](#): > > It seems that in Iraq, like America, there are differences of opinion. I don’t think anyone doubts there. But unlike they US, they are a distinct minority. And that minority seems to be [shrinking](http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/401E0663-98DE-40BE-A40D-1C77082524A1.htm). ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 8:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/33 "2004-11-13T08:01:15Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > It’s hard to see how that can be avoided anymore. I don’t see Iran invading, though, their military has to be of either questionable effectiveness or questionable loyalty to the mullahs, and perhaps needs to be kept at home. I didn’t know Iran’s state was so fragile. I thought the mullahs were firmly entrenched and the country looked like … well, like it looked in the 1970s, after the Shah was kicked out and the religious revolution had taken over. Is Iran’s revolutionary government faltering that badly? Could we knock it over using internal dissenters and unseat a dangerous government without a war? (Well, no, we couldn’t in practice, not if the CIA was involved. We damned well tried in Cuba and that failed. But this is a hypothetical.) > [@](#): > > The process can be helped along with external diplomacy, but I agree partition looks for now to be the only alternative to the civil war we lack the power to prevent. I agree, I suppose, but I do still have doubts as to the stability of any possible partitioning scheme. > [@](#): > > Not inevitably. The India/Pakistan fighting was so intense largely because of long-standing ethnic hatreds that don’t seem to be nearly as extreme in Iraq, and largely because of the massive refugee flows both ways once nearly-arbitrary lines were drawn. For the most part, the local populations seem largely homogeneous in Iraq, and the approximate (or sometimes even exact) borders are largely accepted. It wouldn’t be pretty, no, but it might still be workable. Another thing I didn’t know. I thought Iraq was more like Yugoslavia: A mass of ethnic hatred held together by a strongman that fell apart completely once the regime was toppled. But if Iraq is so homogenous, why is partition a good plan at all? > [@](#): > > Except that there’s no good reason to believe that it will be any better than Saddam’s once we’re gone, just that it will have less control and will have to seize it more bloodily. Allawi was one of Saddam’s assassins, remember - why should we invest any hope in him? You’re right about an occupation government lacking the consent of the governed. I don’t invest any hope in anyone in the whole damned region. I think our plans of trying to unify Iraq under one government will end up, if we’re lucky, like it ended up in all of the banana republics we set up in the Cold War: A strongman who gets covert US support as long as he keeps a lid on anti-US activities within his fiefdom. > [@](#): > > Bring in the UN, or at least some outfit that doesn’t look to the locals like imperialist aggressors, to draw the lines and wish them all the best with their own independent homelands. That’s all we have left. We tried that, and that’s how Iraq was created to begin with. I don’t think the UN could do it any better than the British did. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/34 "2004-11-13T12:25:32Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > I didn’t know Iran’s state was so fragile…Is Iran’s revolutionary government faltering that badly? Could we knock it over using internal dissenters and unseat a dangerous government without a war? No way of knowing until it happens, really. There have most certainly been an increasing number of stories about modernization efforts by the mullahs seeking to prevent revolution, and a class of radicals that occasionally gets arrested. The historical pattern seems to be that reforms in an authoritarian country raise people’s expectations even faster, and can _lead_ to revolution. My point was that I doubt the mullahs feel secure enough to send whatever military they have outside their own borders. Nobody knows, though. > [@](#): > > I thought Iraq was more like Yugoslavia: A mass of ethnic hatred held together by a strongman that fell apart completely once the regime was toppled. But if Iraq is so homogenous, why is partition a good plan at all? What I gather is that there certainly are strong tensions, derived from decades of repressive minority Sunni control, but not that the groups were willing to kill each other just for their ethnicity. But Yugoslavia looked that way under Tito too, good point - and the warfare there was ended only by partition, remember, > [@](#): > > I don’t invest any hope in anyone in the whole damned region. I think our plans of trying to unify Iraq under one government will end up, if we’re lucky, like it ended up in all of the banana republics we set up in the Cold War: A strongman who gets covert US support as long as he keeps a lid on anti-US activities within his fiefdom. Maybe **Sam** can explain for us both how he sees his own fantasies of a democratic republic in Iraq coming to fruition. Hope is not a strategy. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/35 "2004-11-13T12:50:32Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > Oh yeah? Well, I see your Riverbend, and raise you [Iraq The Model](http://www.iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/) > > Or from [The Messopotamian](http://messopotamian.blogspot.com/): > > It seems that in Iraq, like America, there are differences of opinion. Hey Sam, it won’t do any good here telling them this, because of course, who could be an optimist in a situation like this!!! But good post anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/36 "2004-11-13T12:52:48Z")
> [@Nietzsche](#): > > **Sam** : > I don’t think anyone doubts there. But unlike they US, they are a distinct minority. And that minority seems to be [shrinking](http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/401E0663-98DE-40BE-A40D-1C77082524A1.htm). And you used that source from Al Jazeera?? ---
**Author:** ![Nietzsche](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/8dc957/32.png) [@Nietzsche](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nietzsche)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2004, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182/37 "2004-11-13T16:22:25Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > And you used that source from Al Jazeera?? Yeah, silly me. I should have known better than to use the AMS as a source when up against such stalwart examples of the “Iraqi voice” as The Messopotamian. > [@](#): > > who could be an optimist in a situation like this!!! We’re all ears. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-any-honorable-peace/274182.md?page=1)