Ridiculous. A successful operation in Fallujah will have no impact on the election. No one is going to change their vote because of it. If I know that then the White House knows it too. If an offensive happens it will be for military necessity.
I have been reading about Margaret Hassan, the kidnapped director of CARE International in Iraq. This woman has been working in Iraq for over 30 years, and now she’s being shown on Al-Jazeera pleading for her life. How will this story play in the UK? I feel like it, along with all the other beheadings, has lost the shock appeal for most American media outlets. What’s the response over there? [I notice that most of the posters on this thread are from the UK.]
This story makes me feel total despair, for her, for the war, for the entire situation. But at the same time, a sense of outrage too; THIS is her reward for thirty years of humanitarian work in Iraq? Will Blair feel pressure from this poor woman’s plight? I don’t see Bush squirming too much on behalf of any of these victims.
As with Kenneth Bigley over the past few weeks, there’s a certain sense of inevitability about Margaret Hassan (as well as the obvious disgust at the ruthlessness of the kidnappers). The general consensus is that the mess made in Iraq was accurately predicted by everybody other than by those planning the war.
Is this expected assault on Falluja perhaps a direct attempt to reduce the amount of recent kidnappings, or is it more likely being planned for other reasons?
I can kind of see why the UK is interested in getting involved in it, if so.
Kidnappings aren’t a recent development. Many thousands of Iraqis have been kidnapped, over the whole period since the fall of Saddam. It just happens that there’s been a couple of high-profile westerners taken in recent weeks.
Exactly, and everyone knows the UK government isn’t going to remove troops or bow to terror demands, so at least this gives them a way to say they’re actively doing something about it.
Like others I have trouble thinking that the United States can not scrape up one miserable battalion of light infantry and really has no choice but to turn to the British to fill a gap in the order of battle with a detachment from a famous regiment. If we are stretched that thin it is a petty reliable indication that things in Iraq are a whole lot worse than any one in the gov’t is letting on. If it is a PR move to emphasize the unity of the so-called coalition then it is just cynical.
Incidently, I see The Black Watch, formerly the Royal Highland Regiment of Infantry and formerly the 42d Foot (I think), referred to as a Warrior Battalion. I also see Saddam referred to as The Sworn Enemy of the United States and the Jahadists who perpetrated 9/11 called Evil Doers. Any day I expect to see a reference to No-Goodnicks, and maybe Flat Top, Prune Face and The Joker. Do we really have to pull our nomenclature from 1950s comic books and he-man adventure movies? It is difficult to seriously deal with real problems in the language of pre-adolescent fantasy.
How do you feel about calling them “the Ladies from Hell”? 
You do know that they are called a Warrior Battalion because of a certain piece of kit they use don’t you?
The Warrior Armored Infantry Vehicle
It will if it gets a few dozen more Americans killed at once. There was a grumpy American general quoted within the last couple of weeks to the effect that the operations they had planned in Fallujah and elsewhere were being delayed until after the election lest the additional body count cause even more disillusionment about this badly screwed up situation and cost Bush the election. I’d hate to think that Bush is trying to put different flags on the cannon fodder for political purposes, but it’s hard to see it any other way.
The military situation is far from OK.
Whilst the US has a large number of superbly equipped troops, not to mention aircraft etc, many of them are functionally useless in fighting a campaign like this. They didn’t train for it and the US military is not really capable of adaptation at high speed. This means that they really do want our help - we are VERY experienced at urban counter-terrorism (we’ve been doing it in our own country for 35 years). Also we seem to have made a better fist of things in the area we control than the yanks have.
To give you an idea of how stretched the US resources are, in terms of effective and usable troops, they are sending the Black Horse - its training battalion as they don’t have anyone else.
In short the US has buggered it up again.
Guys a question, what happens if the Black Watch is a success? Wouldn’t that cause further embarassment to the US army and the Administration, would we see a change in tactics from the US side? Or would we see more of the same, the inablity to admit there tactics are flawed?
I assume you’re asking what happens if the British army’s ‘softly softly’ approach will suddenly win over the local population leading to a reduction in violence. Extremely unlikely - the existing hostility of the population will make such tactics more risky and less likely to be carried out. Even if British soldiers occasionally get out of their vehicles and chat to people etc its not going to make much difference - the damage has already been done to people’s perception of the ‘Coalition’.
OK, there’s another explanation for this that’s just been floated, that I hadn’t even considered. According to the Sunday Times:
That would certainly help Blair, if true.
I have seen a suggestion - in a serious newspaper no less - that this may be partly influenced by Blair’s future finances.
It stated that the Bushes have tended to look after their friends and pointed to the example of John Major who has made a large amount of money from his appointment to the Carlyle Group.
It further pointed out that Blair is at least £2m in debt having bought that horrible house in Paddington (here’s a thing Tony - you can call it Connaught Square as much as you like but your neighbours are all mid-range brasses and dodgy arabs. W2 is Paddington.).
He as has ruled out writing a quick memoir to cash in, so is looking to the USA for future income - eg the lecture circuit.
It’s tin-foil hat territory to me, but it was in a serious paper (soory, can’t remember which one)
The Black Watch were supposed to be the reserve should things kick off and the other UK troops need backup.
This upcoming assault on Faluja is about as likely as anything I can think of to make that kick off happen, only now we won’t have the backup.
…unless we send in another Warrior regiment, which will not happen in time as it takes months to prepare, transport and acclimatise.
Thundering dolts!
They’re being replaced by The Scots Guards - a specialist desert regiment - so we should be OK.