# Iraq insurgents make offer **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 29, 2006, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598 "2006-06-29T03:44:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/1 "2006-06-29T03:44:06Z")
Was reading [this](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060628/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_060628170117;_ylt=An4w3Q2j1yUaDsIsIjyQNLtX6GMA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl) article today and thought I’d bring it here and see what folks think: > [@](#): > > BAGHDAD, Iraq - Eleven Sunni insurgent groups have offered an immediate halt to all attacks — including those on American troops — if the United States agrees to withdraw foreign forces from > Iraq in two years, insurgent and government officials told The Associated Press on Wednesday. > > Withdrawal is the centerpiece of a set of demands from the groups, which operate north of Baghdad in the heavily Sunni Arab provinces of Salahuddin and Diyala. Although much of the fighting has been to the west, those provinces are increasingly violent and attacks there have crippled oil and commerce routes. > [@](#): > > The groups who’ve made contact have largely shunned attacks on Iraqi civilians, focusing instead on the U.S.-led coalition forces. Their offer coincides with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s decision to reach out to the Sunni insurgency with a reconciliation plan that includes an amnesty for fighters. Is it a good offer? Should the US/Iraq take it seriously? CAN the US and Iraq take it seriously? What kind of guarentees could or would be useful to ensure the ceasefire remains in effect? 2 years until withdrawl (with a ceasefire, at least by these groups in the meanwhile) seems…well, fair to me. Bush doesn’t seem to be going for it but, well, he’s kind of an idiot. Thoughts? -XT ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/2 "2006-06-29T03:51:57Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Is it a good offer? I wish. Unfortunately, “eleven Sunni insurgent groups” != the insurgency – which is composed of at least half a dozen factions, who have very different ideas of what Iraq’s future should be, and who would almost certainly be fighting each other if they did not have a common enemy in the Coalition forces. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/3 "2006-06-29T04:55:53Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I wish. Unfortunately, “eleven Sunni insurgent groups” != the insurgency – which is composed of at least half a dozen factions, who have very different ideas of what Iraq’s future should be, and who would almost certainly be fighting each other if they did not have a common enemy in the Coalition forces. [Regarding which, see here.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_insurgency) ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/4 "2006-06-29T05:41:04Z")
Iraq has a democratically elected government. You want to undercut it by making separate deals with a bunch of terrorists whose word is about as fickle as that of a blushing teenager? The future of US and all other foreign troops in Iraq is a matter to be decided between the Iraq government and the foreign nations. If the terrorists want the forces out, they better run a candidate for the next election. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/5 "2006-06-29T05:44:19Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > Iraq has a democratically elected government. 😛😛😛😛😛 Good one, **Rune!** ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/6 "2006-06-29T05:48:24Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 😛😛😛😛😛 > > Good one, **Rune!** That the best you can do? Kinda makes a joke of your nick doesn’t it. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Hampshire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hampshire/32/4887_2.png) [@Hampshire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hampshire)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/7 "2006-06-29T13:23:40Z")
The only reason they are willing to deal now is because they are losing and they’re backs are up against the wall. Desperate times call for compromising. If they were gaining momentum against coalition forces and moving towards their goals I doubt they’d be in the deal-making phase. Desperate times call for desperate measures. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/8 "2006-06-29T13:34:34Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 😛😛😛😛😛 > > Good one, **Rune!** Why’s that funny? I know you hate the Bush Administration, but you can you at least look through the partisanism and give Iraq the credit of having a democratic government? It’s validated by the UN. > [@](#): > > **Wikipedia** > > Politics of Iraq takes place in a framework of a more or less **federal parliamentary representative democratic republic** , whereby the Prime Minister of Iraq is the head of government, and of a **pluriform multi-party system**. Executive power is exercised by the government. **Legislative power is vested in both the government and the National Assembly of Iraq.** Politics of Iraq includes the social relations involving authority or power in Iraq. Before the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the Ba’ath Party officially ruled. The occupation yielded to an interim Iraqi constitution, which was replaced by a permanent constitution following approval in a referendum held on October 15, 2005. > **[Federal government of Iraq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_government)** > > Member State of the Arab League > The federal government of Iraq is defined under the current Constitution, approved in 2005, as an Islamic, democratic, federal parliamentary republic. The federal government is composed of the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, as well as numerous independent commissions. > Article 114 of the Constitution of Iraq provided that no new region may be created before the Iraqi National Assembly has passed a law that provides the procedures for forming the r... ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/9 "2006-06-29T14:16:11Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Why’s that funny? I know you hate the Bush Administration, but you can you at least look through the partisanism and give Iraq the credit of having a democratic government? It’s validated by the UN. > > [Federal government of Iraq - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_government) Elected it might be. A **government** it is [not.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=376303) ---
**Author:** ![AFAIKnow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a6a055/32.png) [@AFAIKnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AFAIKnow)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/10 "2006-06-29T15:59:51Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Elected it might be. A **government** it is [not.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=376303) You prefer hardlined Saddam-type governments who crush any resistance? Or do you realise it is a fledgling government of a war-torn country with alot of shit on its plate atm. Either way your snickering is chilidish. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/11 "2006-06-29T16:35:20Z")
> [@AFAIKnow](#): > > Either way your snickering is chilidish. Does that come with cheese? ::snicker:: ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/12 "2006-06-29T16:47:17Z")
> [@AFAIKnow](#): > > You prefer hardlined Saddam-type governments who crush any resistance? Or do you realise it is a fledgling government of a war-torn country with alot of shit on its plate atm. Either way your snickering is chilidish. It goes directly to **Rune’s** argument, which is that the Coalition forces dealing directly with the insurgents would “undercut” the Iraqi government. No, sir, the Coalition forces are the only ones who can meaningfully deal with the insurgents at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/13 "2006-06-29T18:10:13Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It goes directly to **Rune’s** argument, which is that the Coalition forces dealing directly with the insurgents would “undercut” the Iraqi government. No, sir, the Coalition forces are the only ones who can meaningfully deal with the insurgents at the moment. I didn’t see anything in the article to indicate that the insurgents would refuse to talk to the government as well as the Coalition. I know it only makes sense to talk to Edgar Bergen, but it doesn’t hurt to talk to Charlie McCarthy also. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/14 "2006-06-29T18:49:26Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > I didn’t see anything in the article to indicate that the insurgents would refuse to talk to the government as well as the Coalition. > > I know it only makes sense to talk to Edgar Bergen, but it doesn’t hurt to talk to Charlie McCarthy also. Try [this article](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2242602,00.html), then: > [@](#): > > These bodies have drawn up a separate set of demands. They want a more rapid withdrawal of foreign troops, the release of all prisoners from American and Iraqi jails and compensation from the United States and other coalition countries to fund the rebuilding of infrastructure and homes destroyed in the war. > > The 11 groups have indicated that any future talks should be conducted with American officials under UN or Arab League supervision, but not with the Iraqi government. If the insurgents offering the current deal speak for, say, 95% of the Sunni insurgency, we ought to grab this deal and _run_. We may not see a better one; hell, we may not see another deal at all. We’d get to be in country for another two presumably peaceful years during which we could continue to train security forces. And for a year or two after that, we could presumably have a decent-sized force over the horizon in Kuwait, ready to fly in if civil war breaks out. We’d have to give up our ‘permanent bases,’ which will break Dick Cheney’s hard heart, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. Two years is also time for the Iraqi people to (hopefully) get used to peace, and become less willing to support those who disrupt peace for sectarian ends. Yes, there’s a risk that the insurgents will try to start things up again 25 months from now, but regardless of when we leave, there will be such a risk. Might as well take that risk now. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/15 "2006-06-29T18:55:37Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It goes directly to **Rune’s** argument, which is that the Coalition forces dealing directly with the insurgents would “undercut” the Iraqi government. No, sir, the Coalition forces are the only ones who can meaningfully deal with the insurgents at the moment. Indeed. We’re still the true sovereigns in Iraq. When asked if we plan to leave, does Bush ever say, “we’ll stay as long as the Iraqi government wants us to, and we’ll leave when they ask us to leave”? No, his words always carry the underlying assumption that we’re the ones who decide how long we get to stay. Can’t get much more basic than that. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/16 "2006-06-29T20:06:28Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Try [this article](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2242602,00.html), then: IOW, the insurgents can bargain in good faith to stop their attacks **now.** But they only want to deal with the Coalition, not the government – meaning, they don’t want to **promise** anything to the government. Leaving them free to fire up the insurgency again after the foreign troops leave. But then, there’s no way of preventing that, is there? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/17 "2006-06-29T21:29:31Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > IOW, the insurgents can bargain in good faith to stop their attacks **now.** But they only want to deal with the Coalition, not the government – meaning, they don’t want to **promise** anything to the government. Leaving them free to fire up the insurgency again after the foreign troops leave. > > But then, there’s no way of preventing that, is there? No, not really. Of course, they’d presumably be promising _to us_ that they wouldn’t fire up the insurgency once we’re gone. If they’d lie to us, would they not lie to the Iraqi government? I think they want to deal with us because they know we’re the sheriff in town. The “Iraqi government” can’t order us out, but we can agree to leave. The insurgents want “Compensation for Iraqis killed by U.S. and government forces and reimbursement for property damage.” We’ve got money for that; the Iraqi government doesn’t. And I can also see them saying, “if we reach a deal with Maliki, we’ll then have to start all over in negotiating a deal with the Americans.” They probably want to skip Step 1, and who can blame them? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2006, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/18 "2006-06-29T22:01:58Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It goes directly to **Rune’s** argument, which is that the Coalition forces dealing directly with the insurgents would “undercut” the Iraqi government. No, sir, the Coalition forces are the only ones who can meaningfully deal with the insurgents at the moment. But it _is_ undercutting the Iraqi Government, much like the terms of the Paris Peace Accords undercut the South Vietnamese Government after US Withdrawal. > **[Paris Peace Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Peace_Accords)** > > The Paris Peace Accords, (Vietnamese: Hiệp định Paris về Việt Nam), officially the Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring Peace in Viet Nam (Hiệp định về chấm dứt chiến tranh, lập lại hòa bình ở Việt Nam), was a peace agreement signed on January 27, 1973, to establish peace in Vietnam and end the Vietnam War. The agreement was signed by the governments of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (North Vietnam); the Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam); the United States; and the Provisional Revoluti... > [@](#): > > Elected it might be. A government it is not. It is the [official Government](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Iraq%2C_2006-2010#Issues_faced_by_the_government) of the Iraqi people. Defence and Interior ministries were filled nearly a month ago, therefore Iraq now has it’s first full **permanent government**. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2006, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/19 "2006-06-30T00:19:53Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 😛😛😛😛😛 > > Good one, **Rune!** You just trivialized the people in Iraq who risked death to organize and then vote in a democratic election. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2006, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598/20 "2006-06-30T00:20:50Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > It is the [official Government](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Iraq%2C_2006-2010#Issues_faced_by_the_government) of the Iraqi people. Defence and Interior ministries were filled nearly a month ago, therefore Iraq now has it’s first full **permanent government**. :rolleyes: A government that can’t govern is no government, **Ryan.** You were flat wrong on this point – repeatedly! – in the thread on the [Khalilzad Cable](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=376303) and you don’t appear to have learned any better yet. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-insurgents-make-offer/362598.md?page=2)