# Iraq is beginning to look a lot like Vietnam **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 30, 2005, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102 "2005-05-30T16:27:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2005, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/1 "2005-05-30T16:27:26Z")
I’m not sure what the debate is going to be in this. I was just listening to Gen. Wayne Downing (Ret) and another retired General on MSNBC. Their opinion and this is something I hear over and over is that the defeat of the Iraq insurgents ultimately depends upon the Iraqis themselves. The Iraqi security forces, army and police, have to be able to contain and finally put down the insurgents in order that the country can be a free society. However, they aren’t ready yet and so the US armed forces must do the job until they are ready. Wasn’t that the line in Vietnam? As I recall McNamara’s book we went around that loop over and over for something like 15 years. “They have to do it themselves. but they aren’t quite ready yet so we have to stay a while longer.” True, there are differences. North Vietnam had a big friend who could keep it supplied and _maybe_ the Iraq insurgents don’t. On the other hand maybe they have supporters all over the Middle East, or Southwest Asia, and the Iraq borders are somewhat leaky. Resolved: The Iraq adventure was ill conceived in its beginning and ill thought out in its progression and above all, unecessary. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2005, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/2 "2005-05-30T18:00:13Z")
Juan Cole, a professor of history at the University of Michigan, believes there really is no way the U.S. can defeat the insurgency in the next 10 to 15 years – [http://www.juancole.com/2005/05/sometimes-you-are-just-screwed-readers.html:](http://www.juancole.com/2005/05/sometimes-you-are-just-screwed-readers.html:) > [@](#): > > The guerrillas have widespread popular support in the Sunni Arab areas of Iraq, an area with some 4 million persons. Its cities and deserts offer plenty of cover for an unconventional war. Guerrilla movements can succeed if more than 40 percent of the local population supports them. While the guerrillas are a small proportion of Iraqis, they are very popular in the Sunni Arab areas. If you look at it as a regional war, they probably have 80 percent support in their region. > > The guerrillas are mainly Iraqi Sunnis with an intelligence or military background, who know where secret weapons depots are containing some 250,000 tons of missing munitions, and who know how to use military strategy and tactics to good effect. They are well-funded and can easily get further funding from Gulf millionnaires any time they like. > > The Iraqi guerrillas are given tactical support by foreign jihadi fighters. There are probably only a few hundred of them, but they are disproportionately willing to undertake very dangerous attacks, and to volunteer as suicide bombers. > > There are simply too few US troops to fight the guerrillas. There are only about 70,000 US fighting troops in Iraq, they don’t have that much person-power superiority over the guerrillas. There are only 10,000 US troops for all of Anbar province, a center of the guerrilla movement with a population of 820,000. A high Iraqi official estimated that there are 40,000 active guerrillas and another 80,000 close supporters of them. The only real explanation for the successes of the guerrillas is that the US military has been consistently underestimating their numbers and abilities. There is no prospect of increasing the number of US troops in Iraq. > > \ > > The guerrilla tactic of fomenting civil war among Iraq’s ethnic communities, which met resistance for the first two years, is now bearing fruit. There is increasing evidence of Shiite murders of Sunni clerics and worshippers, and of Sunni attacks on Shiites, beyond the artificial efforts of the guerrillas themselves. Civil war and turbulence benefit the guerrillas, who gain cover for violent attacks, and who can offer themselves to the Iraqis as the only force capable of keeping order. AP reports an Iraqi official saying today that there is a civil war going on in the northern city of Telafar between Sunnis and Shiites. I doubt US television news is even mentioning it. > > \ > > Therefore, I conclude that the United States is stuck in Iraq for the medium term, and perhaps for the long term. The guerrilla war is likely to go on a decade to 15 years. Given the basic facts, of capable, trained and numerous guerrillas, public support for them from Sunnis, access to funding and munitions, increasing civil turmoil, and a relatively small and culturally poorly equipped US military force opposing them, led by a poorly informed and strategically clueless commander-in-chief who has made himself internationally unpopular, there is no near-term solution. > > In the long run, say 15 years, the Iraqi Sunnis will probably do as the Lebanese Maronites did, and finally admit that they just cannot remain in control of the country and will have to compromise. That is, if there is still an Iraq at that point. ---
**Author:** ![pdx\_craig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e495f1/32.png) [@pdx\_craig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdx_craig)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2005, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/3 "2005-05-30T23:13:09Z")
I would have to say that it looks less and less like post WWII Japan or Germany. That analogy is completely out the window. I think the chaos in Afghanistan is probably the closest fit (both present day US occupation and Soviet era). It certainly does remind me of the last days of the Soviet Union. The US seems terribly over extended and can’t keep this kind of military struggle up indefinitely for both economic and political reasons. ---
**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2005, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/4 "2005-05-30T23:42:09Z")
Once a terrorist group has the support of a section of the public it is very hard to beat them. Look at Northern Ireland. The British has a very large force there that was easily supplied and replaceable. It’s a tiny area compared to Iraq. They shared a common language and a greater understanding of the culture. They had a large section of the population that were on their side 100% and could get spies/informants into the IRA. They still couldn’t stop the IRA from causing a lot of damage to property and people in NI or even in Britain itself for close to 30 years The mayhem only came to an end(hopefully the hot part of the struggles are over) when the IRA basically bombed it’s way to the negotiating table. Hard line tactics and animosity towards the public who support the terrorists just act as a recruiting service for the terrorists. FUBAR. A hornets nest has been kicked and now you have to try and kill them with machine guns. That isn’t easy. ---
**Author:** ![vivalostwages](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d07c76/32.png) [@vivalostwages](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vivalostwages)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2005, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/5 "2005-05-30T23:57:47Z")
> [@David Simmons](#): > > I’m not sure what the debate is going to be in this. I was just listening to Gen. Wayne Downing (Ret) and another retired General on MSNBC. Their opinion and this is something I hear over and over is that the defeat of the Iraq insurgents ultimately depends upon the Iraqis themselves. The Iraqi security forces, army and police, have to be able to contain and finally put down the insurgents in order that the country can be a free society. However, they aren’t ready yet and so the US armed forces must do the job until they are ready. Wasn’t that the line in Vietnam? As I recall McNamara’s book we went around that loop over and over for something like 15 years. “They have to do it themselves. but they aren’t quite ready yet so we have to stay a while longer.” > > True, there are differences. North Vietnam had a big friend who could keep it supplied and _maybe_ the Iraq insurgents don’t. On the other hand maybe they have supporters all over the Middle East, or Southwest Asia, and the Iraq borders are somewhat leaky. > > Resolved: The Iraq adventure was ill conceived in its beginning and ill thought out in its progression and above all, unecessary. “A while longer” is going to be years. **The Fog of War** , anyone? The parallels are uncanny. ---
**Author:** ![cosmosdan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a6a055/32.png) [@cosmosdan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cosmosdan)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/6 "2005-05-31T00:36:57Z")
While the currant Admin has denied comparisions to Vietnam over and over and over again, as time passes we see the similarities.Many people predicted it before we went in. I said it before we went in and I say it again. We cannot force democracy on a country that isn’t ready for it and once in we will never be able to withdraw in the foreseeable future and have a democratic government remain in place without our military support. The tragic part is that we will get more excuses as to why we need to maintain our military presence there. US bases will be established witn the “consent” of a puppet government. When will the American public say enough is fucking enough? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/7 "2005-05-31T00:50:47Z")
Well, as I’ve said before, I’m not seeing it. Perhaps someone would like to take a shot at making all these ‘obvious’ parallels? Who is playing the role of North Vietnam? Who is in the supporting role of China/Soviet Union? Who is playing the lead role of Ho Chi Minh or Diem? Where was things like Tet…on any other set piece battle at all for that matter? Where are all the casualties…on either side? Conversely…when did we invade North Vietnam? As I said I’m not seeing many real paralells especially when you look deeper at the causes of the Vietnam conflict and compare them to whats going on in Iraq today…i.e. WHY are these insurgents fighting as opposed to WHY did the North Vietnamese/Viet Cong fight? Is this conflict REALLY a lot like what happened in Vietnam…or does it only resemble Vietnam superficially, the same way it resembles, oh, any war involving guerrilla warfare? And is the buzzword ‘Vietnam’ used because there really are paralells or is it used for the same reason AI used the word ‘gulag’ to describe the prisons in Gitmo? However, I’m here to be convinced. Show me all these paralells that are so ‘obvious’ that one must be in denial to oppose them. Lets see how close this conflict REALLY is to Vietnam by all means. -XT ---
**Author:** ![pdx\_craig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e495f1/32.png) [@pdx\_craig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdx_craig)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/8 "2005-05-31T01:01:21Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > However, I’m here to be convinced. Show me all these paralells that are so ‘obvious’ that one must be in denial to oppose them. Lets see how close this conflict REALLY is to Vietnam by all means. I’m not sure who you’re addressing with this quote, but the OP appears to be bringing up Vietnam for these reasons. > [@David Simmons](#): > > Resolved: The Iraq adventure was ill conceived in its beginning and ill thought out in its progression and above all, unecessary. I don’t see anywhere anybody saying that the parallels are “so ‘obvious’ that one must be in denial to oppose them” Personally, I think the statement of the OP could be defensible, but I’m not sure what standards of proof you would accept for them. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/9 "2005-05-31T01:11:30Z")
> [@pdx\_craig](#): > > I’m not sure who you’re addressing with this quote, but the OP appears to be bringing up Vietnam for these reasons. They myriad OTHER threads that have been brought up on exactly this same subject for the last several years? The OP’s paralells seem to boil down to: Well, the South Vietnam army was never ready, and the Iraqi army is not yet ready, so therefore Iraq=Vietnam. Doesn’t seem a very convincing parallel to me. For one thing, its still pretty early in the game, so I’d need a bit more to convince me that the Iraqi forces will NEVER be ready to defend the country from insurgents. I’d also need some convincing that this insurgency is sustainable without a North Vietnam, Soviet Union or China, but thats another matter. -XT ---
**Author:** ![pdx\_craig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e495f1/32.png) [@pdx\_craig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdx_craig)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/10 "2005-05-31T01:28:25Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > They myriad OTHER threads that have been brought up on exactly this same subject for the last several years? If any of those threads are directly relevant to this discussion maybe you should link to them. > [@xtisme](#): > > The OP’s paralells seem to boil down to: Well, the South Vietnam army was never ready, and the Iraqi army is not yet ready, so therefore Iraq=Vietnam. Doesn’t seem a very convincing parallel to me. For one thing, its still pretty early in the game, so I’d need a bit more to convince me that the Iraqi forces will NEVER be ready to defend the country from insurgents. What would you need for convincing? I haven’t seen much evidence of competence on the part of the Bush administration yet. I haven’t seem much period from the new Iraqi government such as it is, but right now it looks pretty helpless. > [@xtisme](#): > > I’d also need some convincing that this insurgency is sustainable without a North Vietnam, Soviet Union or China, but thats another matter. The OP does directly acknowledge the lack of this parallel. Rabid anti-americanism and ethnic turmoil seem to be quite sustainable in general though. I personally don’t see much point in arguing over the analogy per se, but find the OP’s assertion that the Iraq invasion was ill-concieved,ill-thought out, and unecessary as being quite fruitful. Those are the similarities I think we should judge the similarity to Vietnam. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/11 "2005-05-31T01:38:45Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > They myriad OTHER threads that have been brought up on exactly this same subject for the last several years? > > The OP’s paralells seem to boil down to: Well, the South Vietnam army was never ready, and the Iraqi army is not yet ready, so therefore Iraq=Vietnam. Doesn’t seem a very convincing parallel to me. For one thing, its still pretty early in the game, so I’d need a bit more to convince me that the Iraqi forces will NEVER be ready to defend the country from insurgents. I’d also need some convincing that this insurgency is sustainable without a North Vietnam, Soviet Union or China, but thats another matter. > > -XT You could be right and it would be nice if you are. However, the only parallel I worry about is the continued statements by those in and out of the administration that the Iraqis have to solve the problem of the insurgents, but they aren’t quite ready. And that’s the only parallel I spoke of. All of your other statements bringing up other things that are different are just so much dust that seems to have been raised to divert the discussion. We will see whose side time is on in this matter. It does seem to me that the longer our forces remain in Iraq the more they are and will be resented. Even our good friends and allies, the British, in WWII were a trifle rankled from time to time by so many damned Yanks. Such resentment is good news for our enemies and is the sort of thing that generates people willing to fly airplanes into tall buildings. As to external support, **BrainGlutton’s** cite of the words of Prof. Cole did mention that there seems to be plenty of available financial support. As to a comparison, those potential financial supporters are not like North Vietnam. They have more money. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/12 "2005-05-31T02:02:56Z")
> [@pdx\_craig](#): > > What would you need for convincing? I haven’t seen much evidence of competence on the part of the Bush administration yet. I haven’t seem much period from the new Iraqi government such as it is, but right now it looks pretty helpless. Some tangable parallel between the South Vietnamese army and the Iraqi armed forces would probably be good. I don’t see the parallels at all. What do you see as similarities between the two militaries? I’m not saying that the Iraqi military as it is isn’t pretty helpless right now. Of course it is. What I’m disputing is how you can project that helplessness into the future. The Iraqi military was crushed by the US in two successive wars. Only the unrealistic could project that it would now just magically be able to reform itself and protect the nation after that. However, in the past the Iraqi military was quite capable (when measured against other regional powers), and certainly managed to keep the nation under control by and large (though in a brutal fashion). Is there a paralell there somewhere between that and South Vietnam? If so, again, I’m not seeing it. > [@pdx\_craig](#): > > The OP does directly acknowledge the lack of this parallel. Rabid anti-americanism and ethnic turmoil seem to be quite sustainable in general though. Quite sustainable at what level? At a ‘Vietnam’ level of insurgency? Or at a Palestinian level? Because those are completely different levels there. I’m not denying that an insurgency in Iraq is sustainable at some level long term. What I’m disputing is that a ‘Vietnam’ level of insurgency is sustainable in Iraq long term without massive outside support in terms of cash and technical assistance. After all, Iraq under Saddam was a toy box full of deadly things. However, those deadly toys aren’t going to be there forever…they are being used up. Where will new toys to support a high level of fighting come from when all those in country are used up as they eventually will be? Where will the fighters come from as the borders tighten up? > [@pdx\_craig](#): > > I personally don’t see much point in arguing over the analogy per se, but find the OP’s assertion that the Iraq invasion was ill-concieved,ill-thought out, and unecessary as being quite fruitful. Those are the similarities I think we should judge the similarity to Vietnam. I agree that the Iraq invasion was ‘ill-concieved,ill-thought out’, etc etc. I just don’t see that its very much like Vietnam and don’t really see anything ‘fruitful’ in continueing to try and MAKE it like that conflict. Again, to my mind its used more for the images and emotions it invokes than for either accuracy or because there are really more than superficial parallels that you’d see if you looked at ANY conflict that involves insurgent type warfare. -XT ---
**Author:** ![saoirse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@saoirse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/saoirse)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/13 "2005-05-31T02:13:08Z")
> [@pdx\_craig](#): > > I personally don’t see much point in arguing over the analogy per se, but find the OP’s assertion that the Iraq invasion was ill-concieved,ill-thought out, and unecessary as being quite fruitful. Those are the similarities I think we should judge the similarity to Vietnam. That the invasion of Iraq was unnecessary is a matter of opinion, an opinion that hasn’t been justified (in this thread, anyway). I don’t know how anyone could assert that it wasn’t ill-conceived and ill-thought-out. Unless, of course, you’d been told by your handlers not to admit to any specific mistakes in this area. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/14 "2005-05-31T02:35:47Z")
> [@yojimbo](#): > > Look at Northern Ireland. The British has a very large force there that was easily supplied and replaceable. It’s a tiny area compared to Iraq. They shared a common language and a greater understanding of the culture. They had a large section of the population that were on their side 100% and could get spies/informants into the IRA. They still couldn’t stop the IRA from causing a lot of damage to property and people in NI or even in Britain itself for close to 30 years The mayhem only came to an end(hopefully the hot part of the struggles are over) when the IRA basically bombed it’s way to the negotiating table. Not to make light of the Troubles, but how many people were killed in that conflict? I guarantee you it’s nowhere near as many American soldiers who have been killed every day, week, month and year as a result of this damn fool war. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/15 "2005-05-31T04:11:31Z")
Meanwhile, Dick Cheney says the Iraq insurgency is in its “last throes.” [http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/05/30/cheney.iraq/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/05/30/cheney.iraq/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Hail\_Ants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/dc4da7/32.png) [@Hail\_Ants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hail_Ants)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/16 "2005-05-31T05:42:52Z")
Don’t ever, ever believe college professors when it comes to predicting military strategy and outcomes. For some more pragmatic (and IMO accurate) views, both positive & negative try these: [http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/200552911951.asp](http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/200552911951.asp) [http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/2005523232429.asp](http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/2005523232429.asp) ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 6:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/17 "2005-05-31T06:58:16Z")
> [@saoirse](#): > > That the invasion of Iraq was unnecessary is a matter of opinion, an opinion that hasn’t been justified (in this thread, anyway). I don’t know how anyone could assert that it wasn’t ill-conceived and ill-thought-out. Unless, of course, you’d been told by your handlers not to admit to any specific mistakes in this area. I would assert that a necessary war is one that defends against a grave threat of sovereignty. I don’t see how the Iraq adventure even comes withing a country mile of meeting that test. Maybe my test is too severe and I’m ready to entertain alternatives. I can’t see how this adventure has in any way advanced our cause in combatting terrorist activities. The argument that there have been no domestic terror strikes since the Iraq invasion and that the terrorism has been _there_ and not _here_ doesn’t persuade me. After all there were a number of intervening years between the first WTC bombing and 9/11 and the absence of such events lately isn’t necessarily related to the invasion of Iraq. As to bringing democracy to Iraq, that smells of an _ad hoc_ addition to the mix that was occasioned by the collapse of the WMD justification. I don’t see how it is in any way necessary for our national well-being that we spend hundreds of billions of dollars to bring democracy to one selected people out of all those in the world who could use it. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/18 "2005-05-31T07:02:12Z")
> [@David Simmons](#): > > … we spend hundreds of billions of dollars … Add “kill thousands of people and tear down Iraq’s physical infrastructure to bring etc., etc.” ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/19 "2005-05-31T12:46:57Z")
> [@Hail Ants](#): > > Don’t ever, ever believe college professors when it comes to predicting military strategy and outcomes. Nor should one believe wargamers about historical and political trends. I don’t know that guy you linked to from Adam, but I think a professor who has studied the Middle East for 30 years and who speaks the language is in a much better position to evaluate the current political situation in that region than is someone who has programmed computers for the same amount of time. ---
**Author:** ![Walloon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/fbc32d/32.png) [@Walloon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walloon)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2005, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102/20 "2005-05-31T13:21:46Z")
Let’s discuss scale for a moment. During the Vietnam war, literally hundreds of Americans were dying _every week_. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/iraq-is-beginning-to-look-a-lot-like-vietnam/306102.md?page=2)