Bckground on ‘the Shia’:
Analysis: Growing Shia discontent:
*And yet, for a coalition which already has enemies enough in Iraq, a new front is opening up, with helicopter gunships over the Shia slums of Baghdad, and automatic fire in the holy city of Najaf, a place which had been calm for almost the whole of the past 12 months.
What has gone wrong? Well, the first and most important thing to stress is that this is not a general Shia uprising. *
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*The crucial task now facing the coalition is to stop the anger among this small group of radicals from turning into more general discontent.
That is a possibility, if, come 1 July and the handover of sovereignty to a new Iraqi government, the Shia feel somehow cheated of power.
It might also happen if the Shia believe that British and US forces are going to stay on indefinitely - that Iraqi self-rule is a sham.
I spoke to three masked members of a Shia militia in Basra last summer.
As they cradled rocket-propelled grenades in their arms, they said they were grateful to British soldiers for liberating their country, but if the British did not leave soon, they would start killing them*
Who are Iraq’s Mehdi Army?:
*Taking its name from Mehdi - the “promised one” in Islam - the militia is fiercely loyal to its religious founder.
“I’m not sure what the aim of the army is or when we will fight, but I will follow Sadr’s orders,” was how one original volunteer, 29-year-old Kathem Rissan, explained his position to the Financial Times in Baghdad last July.
Access to guns
The MA’s potential as an armed force was only really felt when violence erupted with coalition forces this week, although many of the gunmen in action on the streets of Baghdad or Najaf may not necessarily have been militia members but ordinary Iraqis defending their neighbourhoods. *
And I suspect we have different media expectations about the forthcoming elections ?
30 June Iraq handover questioned:
"However, the reality behind the plan is more complex.
[ul]
[li]security after 30 June will remain in the hands of a four-star American general who will command all military forces, foreign and Iraqi. [/li]
[li]the format of the interim government is far from agreed. There is likely to be a prime minister under a revolving three-person presidency. The prime minister will have to have the approval of the United States. [/li]
[li]the interim government will administer but it will not rule. It will have very little power. Many of its ministers will probably be the same as those now running the Iraqi Governing Council. [/li]
financial decisions will largely remain with the US since $8bn of reconstruction aid will be flowing in. The new US embassy will be the power in the land. [/ul]"